Tag Archives: newbury

Focus on value

Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.

We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.

2.40 2m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)

Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.

Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.

Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.

Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.

He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.

I provisionally price the race as follows:

Oistrakh  Le Noir 15/8

Mister Chow   6/1

Nigh or Never 7/1

Falcon Sun       7/1

Ulysses             7/1

14/1 bar

Newbury

 

Race pricing and value

As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.

A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.

My prices were:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.

Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.

The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.

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Worth a look at 40/1

An interesting day of racing with the better quality to be found at Newbury and Warwick. The other turf meeting of the day at Uttoxeter appears to have cornered the market in Class 4 races, with all seven on the card being of that standard.

We are concentrating on two races from Newbury. The official going is soft/good to soft in places. Very similar to that reported by Sandown last Saturday, which proved to be generous as many toiled in the testing ground. I understand why tracks don’t want to deter connections from pulling out, but for the serious backers it is not helpful.

With rain widespread across the country I will be getting up to date going reports direct from contacts at the tracks prior to making my betting decisions before briefing clients at lunchtime.

1.50 3m Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

Barters Hill’s reappearance after a fourteen month absence is of significant interest.

A leading novice hurdler in 2015/16, he was pulled up on his chase debut when last seen on the track.

He has done plenty of work in preparation for today. If retaining his ability he is very favourably handicapped.

The Eaglehaslanded also returns from a long absence.

He has been dropped a few pounds in the handicap since last seen. Conditions will suit and I expect him to go well.

With the horses that have recent form all looking beatable it is a difficult race to price with confidence.

The two returners make the most appeal.

Barters Hill

 

3.35 2m½f Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

The maximum twenty four declared for this valuable handicap. With over £150,000 prize money on offer it ensures that the respective trainers will have made all preparations to bring their horses here with a fighting chance.

As the betting suggests it is wide open. I will highlight five horses that are expected to run big races.

Current 9/1 favourite Irish Roe has to be considered. She continues to progress and in theory gets into today’s race very favourably handicapped. However, I’m not sure that her latest form can be taken at face value and her chance is reflected in the market.

Misterton comes into this race of the back of his best performance. Conditions are fine and further improvement is anticipated. 20/1 is fair.

Waterlord disappointed on latest start after impressing when winning previously. This will be his first run in a handicap with a return to his earlier form expected. Presently on offer between 16/1 and 20/1.

And finally two further down the betting list, both available at a general 40/1. Don’t be put off by the price, they are worthy of consideration.

Divin Bere is Paul Nichols sole runner. He shaped much better than his finishing position suggests on reappearance. His Cheltenham and Aintree form from last season puts him in with a live chance at big odds.

Nietzsche is another I can make a case for at big odds. A strong run, big field race will suit. Last season’s form ties in with Divin Bere.

 

Divin Bere (right)

The recent radical changes in the weather have been a dominant factor as seen by the abandonment of all jump meetings on Wednesday. However, the overarching theme of this winter has been prolonged testing ground. It is a time to circumspect in your betting. This week we have had just four bets producing two winners at 6/4 and 3/1.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

We are now just over four weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

The advance price is £25. Click on the link for more details.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

Terrific card at Newbury this afternoon with two graded and two listed races amongst the seven race card. The going is Good to Soft and a dry day is forecast.

Going to look at two races both honouring two greats of National Hunt racing:

12.45 2m7½f Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Black Corton has been in fantastic form, putting up his best performance yet when winning at Cheltenham on latest start. Always previously considered best on good ground that latest win was on testing ground. That victory was his fifth consecutive win, all partnered by Bryony Frost, who is in the saddle today.

Black Corton may well continue to progress.

Fountains Windfall won on his chasing debut at Southwell, where his jumping improved as the race progressed. He was a progressive hurdler last season, and could be even better over fences.

I provisionally price the field as follows:

Black Corton 2/1

Fountains Windfall 9/4

Sir Ivan 5/1

Wait For Me 8/1

Elegant Escape 10/1

Black Corton

 

1.20 2m6½f Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

O Maonlai is weighted go close in the race he won last year.

He goes well fresh and this race has been his target.

Arguments can be made for both Bouvreuil and recent Aintree winner On Tour, but both need to prove their effectiveness at this trip.

Currently a general 11/2, which is in keeping with my thinking.

 

O Maonlai

As I outlined to my select group of members on the weekly review message last Sunday – now the form is now setting down and we have suitable jumping conditions, I will continue to increase turnover levels and look to push the overall profit levels higher. Whilst maintaining a selective value led approach.

Yesterday we were rewarded with a good 12/1 winner at S.P. which followed another decent winner earlier in the week.

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Army dreamers

With the abandonment of Ayr we are left with three flat turf meetings in Britain today plus a National Hunt fixture in Ireland. I will be keeping a close watch on the latter as part of my preparations for the fast approaching main jumps campaign.

We are concentrating on a race each from Newbury and Newmarket this morning, the going at both is Good.

2.50 Newbury 6f Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)

Invincible Army looked to have progressed further when winning on the polytrack at Kempton on his latest start. He sets the form standard.

James Garfield was just touched off over 7f at York after looking sure to win. Dropping back to 6f here isn’t sure to suit.

Enjazaat steps back up in class after easily winning a listed race at Ripon.

Invincible Army looks sure to run a big race and is preferred. 3/1 on offer early.

My tissue:

Invincible Army   5/2

Enjazaat                4/1

James Garfield    4/1

10/1 bar

Invincible Army

5.30 Newmarket 1m (Row) discovernewmarket.co.uk Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Panova is a noted horse who is proving to be a disappointment. Cheek-pieces are fitted today.

She ties in closely with Dubara on Goodwood form.

Also at Goodwood, Shenanigans stayed on well to win and is progressive. The market reflects her chance.

I price the main contenders:

Shenanigans  2/1

Dubara   7/2

Panova   7/2

8/1 bar

Panova (far side)

The Ayr Gold Cup meeting was the centrepiece of the week and losing all three days meant we were left with some pretty unsuitable betting cards elsewhere. So it has been a quiet week with one winner from our two bets so far.

The two starter membership options close this weekend. It is an ideal low cost opportunity to sample my work during this transitional phase in the racing calendar. You can start today by going to: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-membership/

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Last chance

We go to Newbury and Perth this afternoon. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

2.25 Newbury 1m5½f Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Frontiersman sets the standard, but is proving frustrating having thrown away a winning opportunity at Newmarket on latest start.

Defoe’s win at Hamilton has subsequently been franked. He can progress further.

To Eternity is still unexposed.

At the odds available I am tempted to give Frontiersman one further chance.

My provisional front of market tissue:

Frontiersman  5/2

Defoe               11/4

To Eternity      11/2

We go to Newbury and Perth today. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

 

Frontiersman

 

3.45 Perth 2m Spirits Of Scone Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3yo+)

Lovato runs in first handicap and will need to improve to win off his mark.

Top-weighted Mirsaale returned to form on latest start. Connections fit cheek-pieces for the first time over hurdles (he wore them on the flat).

Dear Sire ties in with Mirsaale on latest form.

Green Zone is improving.

My early assessment of the field:

Mirsaale                10/3

Lovato                     4/1

Dear Sire                 4/1

Green Zone            5/1

Caius Marcius        7/1

Thefyingportrait  12/1

 

Green Zone

Our final special membership of the year is centred around the York Ebor meeting. You can start today and get 10 days membership from only £20. More details at: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-membership/

Good couple of winners for us this week which pushed the summer profits up again. Greatly looking forward to York next week.

 

It’s raining again….

Four afternoon and two evening meetings on a busy Saturday of racing. We have soft or good to soft ground at all six British courses and with scattered showers forecast across the country this afternoon, the ground can only get softer where they land. It does make accurate pricing more difficult.

We are going to briefly touch on three races today. We start at Newbury who are expected to get rain throughout the day and then one race at Bangor where it has rained heavily this morning. I will be getting course reports from both prior to racing commencement.

1.50 Newbury

For various reasons there are question marks against all six runners.

Waiting on some late info as this could be a race to play in.

5.10 Newbury

El Hayem was noted at Chester last week when second after a troubled run

Further improvement to come, there is just a doubt concerning the ground.

El Hayem (red cap)

4.50 Bangor

Desert Sting remains on a fair handicap mark.

Softer ground isn’t a problem. 2/1 my tissue.

Desert Sting (right)

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Marginal value

We stay at Newbury for the second day of the meeting. The going is Good to Soft (Good in places) and another bright spring day is forecast.

Newbury 2.25

Wide open race in which the veteran Ericht has his ideal conditions.

The 11y.o. looked the winner going to the last at Doncaster on latest start, before weakening on the run-in and just being caught.

That was over 3 miles and this 4f drop in trip will suit him. Currently a general 10/1 which looks about right.

 

Ericht

Newbury 4.10

Just the five remain for this 2m novice hurdle.

Top weighted Sir Antony Browne may find conditions on the sharp side.

Most Celebrated found little for pressure on latest start over today’s c&d.

Adrrastos form is suspect.

Beach Bar is a useful flat horses making hurdles debut.

Whin Park needs to improve.

At the prices Most Celebrated is the marginal value at the 2/1 on offer. I go:

Sir Antony Browne  13/8

Most Celebrated  13/8

Adrrastos  6/1

Beach Bar 12/1

Whin Park  33/1

 

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Howlong test

Start of a fairly decent two-dayer at Newbury. The going is Good to Soft and racegoers can expect a pleasant spring afternoon. One race for us to untangle:

 2.30 Newbury

Howlongisafoot won unchallenged at Stratford last week by an eased down 28 lengths. However he beat out of form opposition there and this race looks much stronger.

There is no doubting that the Chris Gordon yard is in good form with eight winners from the last twelve runners to which Howlongisafoot contributed with that Stratford victory. Clients were on one those eight as part of our three winners from three bets only last weekend.

Private Malone has been a disappointment this season. He has a piece of form from last year which makes him look very well handicapped. Connections will be hoping the first time cheek-pieces bring him back to life.

Midnight Monty is very interesting on his first start for the Tom Lacey yard. Previously with Keith Reveley, he is also a horse that is fairly treated.

Howlongisafoot is a vulnerable favourite, with Midnight Monty being of most interest. Currently the books go 2/1 Howlongisafoot with Midnight Monty in at 5/1. Worth keeping a watch on the market.

 

Chris Gordon gallopsOur next special membership after Cheltenham is for the Aintree Grand National meeting. Advance booking is just £20 for membership covering the period Saturday 1st to Sunday 9th April. Advance booking rate available this weekend only.

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Value, testing ground & the Festival…

Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about. I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.

I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds.  There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.

We stay at Newbury for another two races this afternoon. The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers.

I am waiting on a course report from a senior contact, so at present all my prices are provisional. It will be be pretty testing out there and the bookmakers are being pretty defensive in their early pricing.

1.30 Newbury

Justification improved on latest start and has taken a 9lb hike in the ratings.

Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form.

Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.

Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.

 

Hello George  5/1

Western Climate 11/2

Justification 11/2

Spice Fair 7/1

Willows Saviour 7/1

Western Climate (near)

 

3.50 Newbury

Just the five declared for this tight 2m 0.5f handicap hurdle

Bol D’air won unchallenged at Plumpton and takes on stronger opposition here.

Vocaliser ran well on latest start but tends to hang and isn’t an easy ride.

Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern.

I have the five runners in at:

Bol D’air  2/1

Vocaliser 11/4

Get Rhythm 11/2

Knightly Pleasure 11/2

Three Colours Red  8/1

 

2017 Cheltenham Festival

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

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Français double?

Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup being the highlight. We are looking at two races from the course today. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.

Newbury 2.40

Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound.

Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.

I go:

Le Breuil   evens

Benatar     7/2

Woodfort  7/2

Le Breuil

Newbury 3.15

Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form. Moved from France last December and looks progressive.

Red Devil Star, Greybougg and Keep Moving are all reasonably handicapped.

My tissue:

Plaisir D’Amour 2/1

Red Devil  7/2

Greybougg 7/2

Keep Moving  11/2

12/1 bar

There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap.

 

2017 Cheltenham Festival

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

For just £25 you will get:

  • Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
  • Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
  • Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/