Tag Archives: york

Angel of the North

Seven meetings across Britain today, all in England. The going draws a weather map of the past few days from North to South. Cartmel is Good to Soft whilst Newmarket and Windsor are Good to Firm. The remainder are all Good, including York.

We start at the Knavesmire:

3.00 York 6f Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)

No outstanding performer for this Group 2 worth over £127,000 to the winner.

Form horses Cardsharp and Headway can return to form on this better ground after disappointing on soft ground at Goodwood.

Nebo and Frozen Angel are also considered on form achieved.

At current odds Frozen Angel is my preference.

He was a noted horse earlier in the season and has continued to run well.

His latest performances at the Curragh and Maisons-Laffitte are solid efforts.

Today’s conditions will suit and a big run is expected.

Current 8/1+ is fair.

 

Frozen Angel

 

4.25 Newmarket 6f (July) Hopeful Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Four non-runners leaving a field of eleven.

Previous noted horse Gifted Master returned to his best when winning a Doncaster.

A reproduction of that run gives him a solid chance.

Conditions will suit.

I would want at least 9/2 to get interested.

Gifted Master

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Last chance

We go to Newbury and Perth this afternoon. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

2.25 Newbury 1m5½f Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Frontiersman sets the standard, but is proving frustrating having thrown away a winning opportunity at Newmarket on latest start.

Defoe’s win at Hamilton has subsequently been franked. He can progress further.

To Eternity is still unexposed.

At the odds available I am tempted to give Frontiersman one further chance.

My provisional front of market tissue:

Frontiersman  5/2

Defoe               11/4

To Eternity      11/2

We go to Newbury and Perth today. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

 

Frontiersman

 

3.45 Perth 2m Spirits Of Scone Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3yo+)

Lovato runs in first handicap and will need to improve to win off his mark.

Top-weighted Mirsaale returned to form on latest start. Connections fit cheek-pieces for the first time over hurdles (he wore them on the flat).

Dear Sire ties in with Mirsaale on latest form.

Green Zone is improving.

My early assessment of the field:

Mirsaale                10/3

Lovato                     4/1

Dear Sire                 4/1

Green Zone            5/1

Caius Marcius        7/1

Thefyingportrait  12/1

 

Green Zone

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Good couple of winners for us this week which pushed the summer profits up again. Greatly looking forward to York next week.

 

Success from the front

Six turf meetings today with all except Lingfield (Soft) reporting Good to Soft ground.

We are going to look at the premier races of the day from the cards at Ascot and York.

3.35 Ascot 1m4f  King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

My initial thoughts were that Enable was too short in the market, and I was looking to oppose her.

After thorough analysis I have come to the conclusion she deserves her position at the head of the market. However I can’t get her as short as the 11/8 currently on general offer.

Both her wins in the Epsom and Irish Oaks were very impressive, and there could well be further improvement to come. Ground conditions aren’t expected to be an issue.

Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Ulysses have all achieved a similar level of form when at their best.

My tissue:

Enable               13/8

Highland Reel   9/2

Jack Hobbs        9/2

Ulysses              9/2

20/1 bar

Enable

 

3.15 York 1m2½f  Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Algometer has run consistently in his two Group races this season.

Success Days is a consistent front runner who is at his best on soft ground and would be my preference.

Hathal is a 5yo who is still unexposed and could improve for stepping up to 1m2f.

My original favourite Autocratic is a late non-runner and my revised market is:

Success Days 9/4

Hathal  7/2

Algometer 7/2

8/1 bar

Success Days

 

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Tomyris noted

Ground conditions are making for limited opportunities on the flat. What should have been an informative York meeting has been negated by the soft going. There were 20 non-runners there yesterday, most down to unsuitable ground.

I am going to briefly look at two races this afternoon at York and continue working on the more appealing Aintree card this evening.

 York 2.55

Tomyris was noted after impressing on reappearance. Ground is an unknown factor which makes pricing difficult. Currently a best priced 6/1 with a few of the books.

 

 

Tomyris

York 4.05

Fidaawy is a non-runner leaving eight at present.

Southdown Lad is potentially on a good handicap mark and will be suited by conditions. He is expected to go well. 11/2+ looks fair.

 

Southdown LadBack tomorrow for the six meetings on offer, including the Newbury Lockinge card.

No lady?

After the rain yesterday, the York going is now Good. Intermittent showers, some heavy, are forecast during the afternoon.

We have two races to look at this afternoon, starting with the Gimcrack and then the Ebor. I will be finalising my prices after getting a course report at lunchtime.

3.25 York

Blue Point is an early season noted horse who sets the form standard. He was strongly fancied when showing inexperience and just being touched off by Mehmas at Goodwood.

After that race Charlie Appleby commented: “Blue Point has been asked to go about his business and I was really pleased when Frankie’s horse came to him and we quickened and got that neck up on him. But Mehmas just has that experience and was able to outbattle us in the end. He will come forward for that for sure. He is still a very talented horse.”

Faces unexposed and progressive opposition today but expected to go close.

My provisional tissue:

Blue Point  5/2

Mokarris    5/1

Mubtasim  5/1

 

Mehmas Blue Point
Mehmas just holds off Blue Point

 

4.00 York

Just on £175,000 on offer to the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap. With the long time ante-post favourite Ivan Grozny out  through injury, the race has an even more open feel about it.

Current favourite is Antiquarium still looks to be progressing. A favourite has not won this race since 1998.

Top Tug is a stayer who may find himself outpaced at the finish.

Heartbreak City has shown marked improvement over hurdles and is respected.

I like She Is No Lady, who ran an excellent race on latest start at Sandown early last month. The form of which is fairly solid. She can improve further. Anything double figures has been nibbled at this morning, I would wait until the market gets fully going later and we can see how the ground is riding.

 

she-is-no-lady
She Is No Lady (centre)

With luck the weather may not interfere too badly and we will have a true test of ability this afternoon.

 

Reel deal today?

Two major races for us this afternoon at York and Ascot respectively. Good to Firm at both courses and watering has taken place. There is a common theme in both races – a reversal of form from that experienced in the testing conditions endured from a few weeks back. Most notably at Royal Ascot and at the Sandown Eclipse meeting. As we have already seen recently, some of that form can have a line drawn through it now we are back to more customary mid-summer ground.

3.35 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)

Although Time Test sets the standard on the best of his form, odds of 2/5-4/11 are prohibitive. Ground conditions weren’t suitable in the Eclipse, but that was still a disappointing run. A return to the imperious Royal Ascot form of 2015 would be worth the admission money.

As his trainer Roger Charlton reported: “He’s come out of Sandown well and he’s in good form,” His best performances have been on fast ground and he hasn’t really had it like this since Royal Ascot last year. We take each race as it comes but the Juddmonte would be a natural follow-on from this race.”

Commenting on stablemate Countermeasure who set the pace in the Eclipse and lines up against Time Test today: “Countermeasure has always run from the front and he’ll do it again at York.  A good pace is important for Time Test, but then it is for all of them. It’s a small field and we don’t want a messy race.”

With only 5 runners I can’t see any great betting angle into this race.

 

Time Test 2
Time Test

I price the race as follows:

Time Test      1/2

Mahsoob      6/1

Air Pilot         10/1

Mondialiste  10/1

Counterm     100/1

 

4.30 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1)

Despite sweating up before the start of the Hardwicke, racing arkwardly and Seamie Heffernan dropping the whip, Highland Reel was just held by Dartmouth in a duelling finish.

I expect Highland Reel with Ryan Moore now on board to reverse the Ascot form. Heffernan takes the ride on AP O’Brien’s other entry, Sir Isaac Newton.

Wings Of Desire ran well to finish a creditable fourth in the Derby and can progress.

Erupt caught the eye on latest start at Saint-Cloud, where never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race.

Just on £700, 000 to the winner alone and prize money goes down to sixth place.

My prices are:

Highland Reel  5/2

Dartmouth  7/2

Erupt 9/2

Wings Of Desire 9/2

Sir Isaac Newton 10/1

33/1 Bar

 

Highland Reel
Highland Reel

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Newmarket boss?

Tremendous day of racing ahead with Channel  4 screening ten races. Two from Ascot and four from both Newmarket and York. We are going to look at one race each from the latter. At both courses the going is Good to Firm.

It is an ultra-competitive day with plenty of prize money on offer. The percentage mark up in many races leaves little scope for value, especially each way in the big handicaps. If you are looking at any of the bigger priced horses, the exchanges should be consulted.

3.40 York John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race)

Quest For More looked to have a solid chance on quick ground. However rain is forecast and any easing of the ground is a worry. Just the one outing this season when runner up at this course/distance. The stable are keen to get a run into him and with Goodwood being on his priority list this could be a prep if conditions turn against him. The current 11/4 looks risky given the doubts.

Seamour appeared the winner of the Northumberland Plate before being run down close home. Ground conditions aren’t an issue although drop back in trip could be. I still expect him to be in the ‘shake up.’

With uncertainty regarding the ground at present, I am not going to finalise my prices until I get a course report later and have watched the opening races.

Seamour would be my preference at this stage

 

Seamour
Seamour

5.10 Newmarket bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Bossy Guest caught the eye in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, finishing the race strongly. He is handicapped to go close. He does tend to linger at the stalls however and this has become an issue. The yard are keen for him to replicate his good form at home into a strong racecourse performance.

Conditions are suitable and if breaking on terms I would expect a big run in a wide open race. Currently around 14/1 which is in keeping with my provisional pricing.

 

Bossy Guest
Bossy Guest

 

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Victory Sign?

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Sign Of A Victory
Sign Of A Victory

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

Avispa (left)
Avispa (left)

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Appeared to progress?

A terrific day of racing ahead both in Britain and Ireland. Two races for us to look at; the first at York where the going is Good. Heavy rain is forecast before racing commences at 2.05 with intermittent showers throughout the afternoon. We also go to Haydock, which has a similar weather forecast on ground which is already Good to Soft in places. The widespread softening of the ground has resulted in plenty of non-runners today.

 3.15 York Federation of Bloodstock Agents Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3)

Appeared made his turf debut for Roger Varian at the Dante meeting in a Class 4. Despite hanging and not looking a straightforward ride, the 4y.o. was most impressive when winning over today’s C&D.  Providing his temperament can be kept under control he can make further progress. He looks to have the latent talent to be a listed/group race performer.

Although expected to be effective on today’s quicker ground, any rain would be welcomed. I put him in at a provisional 2/1, which is the best price currently on offer. The whole field is priced up very similar to my tissue.

 

Interception Wokigham
Interception winning the 2015 Wokingham

 

3.40 Haydock EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Interception sets a very decent standard on last season’s form and is not expected to lack for fitness on her return to action. She has been confirmed in-foal and connections will want to get as much race success with her before she retires to the paddocks.

Difficult to price with total confidence but around 3/1 looks fair.

Morning favourite Thetis is a NR.

 

With Epsom and Royal Ascot on the horizon, there will be pointers today worth noting.

 

No Second For Step?

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Second Step
Second Step

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.