Focus on value

Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.

We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.

2.40 2m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)

Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.

Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.

Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.

Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.

He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.

I provisionally price the race as follows:

Oistrakh  Le Noir 15/8

Mister Chow   6/1

Nigh or Never 7/1

Falcon Sun       7/1

Ulysses             7/1

14/1 bar



Race pricing and value

As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.

A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.

My prices were:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.

Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.

The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.

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