Tag Archives: bangor

Focus on value

Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.

We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.

2.40 2m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)

Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.

Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.

Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.

Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.

He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.

I provisionally price the race as follows:

Oistrakh  Le Noir 15/8

Mister Chow   6/1

Nigh or Never 7/1

Falcon Sun       7/1

Ulysses             7/1

14/1 bar



Race pricing and value

As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.

A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.

My prices were:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.

Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.

The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.

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It’s raining again….

Four afternoon and two evening meetings on a busy Saturday of racing. We have soft or good to soft ground at all six British courses and with scattered showers forecast across the country this afternoon, the ground can only get softer where they land. It does make accurate pricing more difficult.

We are going to briefly touch on three races today. We start at Newbury who are expected to get rain throughout the day and then one race at Bangor where it has rained heavily this morning. I will be getting course reports from both prior to racing commencement.

1.50 Newbury

For various reasons there are question marks against all six runners.

Waiting on some late info as this could be a race to play in.

5.10 Newbury

El Hayem was noted at Chester last week when second after a troubled run

Further improvement to come, there is just a doubt concerning the ground.

El Hayem (red cap)

4.50 Bangor

Desert Sting remains on a fair handicap mark.

Softer ground isn’t a problem. 2/1 my tissue.

Desert Sting (right)

Yesterday proved a good day for the blog with 5/1 winner Tomyris at York. Get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk

Eyes on Kempton

Two jumps meetings for us this afternoon and a significant difference in going conditions between the two. At Bangor it is Heavy whilst at Kempton we have Good to Soft going. Two races for us to look at from the southern track.

 2.10 Kempton

 My initial thought was to try and oppose market leader Get On The Yager.

However half the field look to have little chance, and the four that are left will need to show marked improvement to beat an in form favourite.

I have provisionally priced as follows:

 Get On The Yager  5/4

Peak To  Peak  5/1

Agamemmon   5/1

Ballymountain Boy 6/1

Silent Steps 12/1


Kempton Park racecourse


2.40 Kempton

 Little to choose between the form horses.

Savoy Court is worth keeping a close eye on.

He disappointed on hurdles debut when a short priced favourite.

His bumper win last season at Ffos Las was decent form. He defeated Tommy Rapper who ran a creditable third yesterday in a race where we again successfully laid the odds-on favourite.

Tricky race to price up accurately, I would provisionally go 3/1 the field.

Denman and Kauto Star locked together. Denman Chase tomorrow at Newbury.

Plenty for us to go at tomorrow with the two Grade 2 races at Newbury the highlight.

Gold for Kerry?

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Vroum Vroum Mag
Vroum Vroum Mag

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.