Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about. I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.
We stay at Newbury for another two races this afternoon. The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers.
I am waiting on a course report from a senior contact, so at present all my prices are provisional. It will be be pretty testing out there and the bookmakers are being pretty defensive in their early pricing.
Justification improved on latest start and has taken a 9lb hike in the ratings.
Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form.
Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.
Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.
Hello George 5/1
Western Climate 11/2
Spice Fair 7/1
Willows Saviour 7/1
Just the five declared for this tight 2m 0.5f handicap hurdle
Bol D’air won unchallenged at Plumpton and takes on stronger opposition here.
Vocaliser ran well on latest start but tends to hang and isn’t an easy ride.
Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern.
I have the five runners in at:
Bol D’air 2/1
Get Rhythm 11/2
Knightly Pleasure 11/2
Three Colours Red 8/1
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