Category Archives: york

Focus on value

Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.

We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.

2.40 2m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)

Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.

Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.

Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.

Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.

He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.

I provisionally price the race as follows:

Oistrakh  Le Noir 15/8

Mister Chow   6/1

Nigh or Never 7/1

Falcon Sun       7/1

Ulysses             7/1

14/1 bar



Race pricing and value

As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.

A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.

My prices were:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.

Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.

The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.

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Rain west, look East

After two days of sunshine and fast ground, the rain is set to descend on York from around noon today. With heavy rain forecast during racing, there could be a pronounced affect on the going. Two races for us to look at.

York 2.30: Pallasator finished a creditable second in the Goodwood Cup. From that showing he holds four of todays rivals. Wicklow Brave getting closest in a non-competitive fourth place.

Pallasator can be fractious, but if he is kept calm prior to the off, looks sure to go close. Handles all ground conditions.

Last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris is respected after showing well on return in July following a tendon injury. Fifth in this race last year before setting off for the southern hemisphere with high profile runs in Australia and Japan.

I have the market leaders priced as follows:

Pallasator 3/1

Trip To Paris 7/2

Clever Cookie 4/1


York 3.40: Whilst the predicted rain may not have got into the firm ground for the opening races, by mid-afternoon things could look a lot different.

Mecca’s Angel won this race last year by a 2f margin. Which is quite impressive for such a 5f Group 1 sprint. Three outings this season with the latest bringing a Group 2 victory at the Curragh.

July Cup winner Limato heads the betting. Takes on 5f for the first time.

Yalta is one of two 2 y.o.’s in the race and as such gets a sizeable weight pull from his older rivals. Left the field in his wake when running away with the Molecomb at Goodwood.

I am going to price this when I have a better idea of ground conditions. Of the three studied, only Mecca’s Angel will be suited by easing ground. There was some 6/1 on offer very early this morning but that has been taken in anticipation of a going change.

Meccas Angel
Mecca’s Angel

No improvement in the weather is forecast for tomorrow when I will return to look at a few more feature races.

On the Rajar

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Exceeding Power
Exceeding Power

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

Mrs Danvers

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.