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St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.

3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.

Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.

Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.

I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:

Kings Fete              4/5

Battersea                5/1

Humphrey Bogart 6/1

10/1 bar

kings-fete-
Kings Fete

 

4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)

 

Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.

In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.

The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Home Of The Brave 13/8

Convey 9/4

9/1 bar

 

home-of-the-brave-
Home Of The Brave

 

3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)

 

A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.

Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.

He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.

Current 16/1 looks about right.

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On the Rajar

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Exceeding Power
Exceeding Power

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

mrs-danvers-
Mrs Danvers

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

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Another repeat performance?

Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.

The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.

Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.

Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.

As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.

Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.

Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.

Promising-Run
Promising Run

Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.

Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.

Muthmir.
Muthmir

Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.

Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.

Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.

Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.

Reel deal today?

Two major races for us this afternoon at York and Ascot respectively. Good to Firm at both courses and watering has taken place. There is a common theme in both races – a reversal of form from that experienced in the testing conditions endured from a few weeks back. Most notably at Royal Ascot and at the Sandown Eclipse meeting. As we have already seen recently, some of that form can have a line drawn through it now we are back to more customary mid-summer ground.

3.35 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)

Although Time Test sets the standard on the best of his form, odds of 2/5-4/11 are prohibitive. Ground conditions weren’t suitable in the Eclipse, but that was still a disappointing run. A return to the imperious Royal Ascot form of 2015 would be worth the admission money.

As his trainer Roger Charlton reported: “He’s come out of Sandown well and he’s in good form,” His best performances have been on fast ground and he hasn’t really had it like this since Royal Ascot last year. We take each race as it comes but the Juddmonte would be a natural follow-on from this race.”

Commenting on stablemate Countermeasure who set the pace in the Eclipse and lines up against Time Test today: “Countermeasure has always run from the front and he’ll do it again at York.  A good pace is important for Time Test, but then it is for all of them. It’s a small field and we don’t want a messy race.”

With only 5 runners I can’t see any great betting angle into this race.

 

Time Test 2
Time Test

I price the race as follows:

Time Test      1/2

Mahsoob      6/1

Air Pilot         10/1

Mondialiste  10/1

Counterm     100/1

 

4.30 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1)

Despite sweating up before the start of the Hardwicke, racing arkwardly and Seamie Heffernan dropping the whip, Highland Reel was just held by Dartmouth in a duelling finish.

I expect Highland Reel with Ryan Moore now on board to reverse the Ascot form. Heffernan takes the ride on AP O’Brien’s other entry, Sir Isaac Newton.

Wings Of Desire ran well to finish a creditable fourth in the Derby and can progress.

Erupt caught the eye on latest start at Saint-Cloud, where never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race.

Just on £700, 000 to the winner alone and prize money goes down to sixth place.

My prices are:

Highland Reel  5/2

Dartmouth  7/2

Erupt 9/2

Wings Of Desire 9/2

Sir Isaac Newton 10/1

33/1 Bar

 

Highland Reel
Highland Reel

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An Ethel win?

Meetings from three of the Grade 1 tracks today with Ascot this afternoon plus Newmarket and York this evening.

We are going to look at two afternoon races away from the higher profile venues.

Uttoxeter 1.40: Ethelwyn has yet to see the winners enclosure in her eleven career starts. For me, she is risky at short odds.

Two outings this season and on both occasions narrowly beaten. Has the ability to win, but finds little for pressure.

Angel Face has a similar level of form at her best and gets the experience of Tom O’Brien in the saddle for the first time today. His last ride at this course saw him cajole an unlikely victory.

This looks more open than the betting suggests as a couple of others can’t be dismissed.

I price the market leaderrs as follows:

Ethelwyn 2/1

Angel Face 7/2

Middleton’s Minx 4/1

Miss Mobot 8/1

Book At Bedtime 10/1

Ethelwyn_BlackIvory-_9859
Ethelwyn leading Black Ivory on the gallops.

Thirsk 3.40: Good to Firm ground here, which has been watered.

Glitter Girl and Starlight Romance head the market in this maiden fillies stakes for 2 y.o.’s. Both will be suited by this step up to 7f.

Glitter Girl showed plenty of ability on debut over 6f, staying on well after being slightly outpaced.

Starlight Romance was noted on debut over 6f at York and run a similar race on her second start over the same c/d-outpaced before staying on. She looks to be crying out for 7f and further.

My early tissue has Glitter Girl in at 7/4 with Starlight Romance slightly shorter at 9/4 than the general odds on offer.

ZIDANE
Glorious Goodwood

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Newmarket boss?

Tremendous day of racing ahead with Channel  4 screening ten races. Two from Ascot and four from both Newmarket and York. We are going to look at one race each from the latter. At both courses the going is Good to Firm.

It is an ultra-competitive day with plenty of prize money on offer. The percentage mark up in many races leaves little scope for value, especially each way in the big handicaps. If you are looking at any of the bigger priced horses, the exchanges should be consulted.

3.40 York John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race)

Quest For More looked to have a solid chance on quick ground. However rain is forecast and any easing of the ground is a worry. Just the one outing this season when runner up at this course/distance. The stable are keen to get a run into him and with Goodwood being on his priority list this could be a prep if conditions turn against him. The current 11/4 looks risky given the doubts.

Seamour appeared the winner of the Northumberland Plate before being run down close home. Ground conditions aren’t an issue although drop back in trip could be. I still expect him to be in the ‘shake up.’

With uncertainty regarding the ground at present, I am not going to finalise my prices until I get a course report later and have watched the opening races.

Seamour would be my preference at this stage

 

Seamour
Seamour

5.10 Newmarket bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Bossy Guest caught the eye in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, finishing the race strongly. He is handicapped to go close. He does tend to linger at the stalls however and this has become an issue. The yard are keen for him to replicate his good form at home into a strong racecourse performance.

Conditions are suitable and if breaking on terms I would expect a big run in a wide open race. Currently around 14/1 which is in keeping with my provisional pricing.

 

Bossy Guest
Bossy Guest

 

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Soft not terrible for Ivan

We are at the mercy of the rain clouds at Royal Ascot today. Clerk of the course, Chris Stickels explains:

“We’re still soft at the moment. We had 1.5mm of rain late yesterday evening but it’s been dry since. We’re forecast showers, some of them possibly thundery, but if we miss them I may look at changing the going by the time racing starts. That’s only if we miss the rain.”

With that in mind, I am going to concentrate on early value for our preview today and then brief clients later once we have a better view of the going.

3.40: Quiet Reflection deserves to be a short odds favourite after her emphatic victory at Haydock last time. Left Donjuan Triumphant and La Rioja behind her by a good margin.

The value for me is Log Out Island. Made all to win a listed race at Newbury just under two weeks ago and won unchallenged.

Log Out Island
Log Out Island

I go 2/1 Quiet Reflection and 5/1 Log Out Island.

5.00: As you would expect at this meeting – a wide open big money handicap.

The one that interests me is Ivan Grozny. Returns to the flat after Aintree success on a fair handicap mark. Guaranteed to go on soft ground. The early 14/1 is being snapped up and is now as low as 10/1.

Ivan Grozny
Ivan Grozny

Back tomorrow for the final day at Ascot which has already rewarded me with a 7/1 winner from my selective betting.

Mu two

Plenty of racing and sport in general today. The going at York is Good to Soft and there may be rain in the area this afternoon. We also look at one race at Musselburgh, who have a dry day forecast and the going is Good.

With localised thunderstorms predicted, we may see a dramatic change in conditions at some courses. There are plenty of non-runners already so it is advised to check the latest lists before betting.

2.25 York BetStars.uk Home of Spin & Bet Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Lincoln figures on a very fair handicap mark and was noted on reappearance.

Disappointed on latest start when ridden more prominently than usual and tied up in the final furlong. Can go close – if ridden more patiently. John Egan takes the ride for the first time.

Withernsea ran well latest start and will appreciate any softening of the ground. Has taken a marked rise in the weights from that run.

11/2 the field on my provisional tissue in an open race.

 

Mutakayyef (left)
Mutakayyef (left)

 

3.00 York Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)

Mutakayyef and Muwaary boast decent form at their best. Mutakayyef returns to action after finishing third in the Darley Stakes back in October whilst the lightly raced Muwaary steps on to a racecourse for the first time in almost two years after injury and has been gelded in the interim.

The Hamdan Al Maktoum pair are the two that interest me most. Currently priced up at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively which is no great gift considering the long absences from both.

 

Muwaary (far side)
Muwaary (far side)

3.45 Musselburgh William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Over £60,000 on offer for the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap.

Kimberella ran a remarkable race at Epsom last week after missing the break and only just failing to get up. Frederick Tylicki took the ride for the first time on that occasion and retains that ride today. He should gain from that experience.

In theory a high draw should suit – but he is ridden from off the pace and will need luck in running on the stand side rail.

The books go a general 4/1, I would be 6/1 the field.

 

Kimberella (nearest)
Kimberella (nearest)

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Victory Sign?

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Sign Of A Victory
Sign Of A Victory

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

Avispa (left)
Avispa (left)

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Diomed for Decorated?

Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.

Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.

Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.

Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.

Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.

I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.

Decorated Knight (centre green)
Decorated Knight and Andrea Atzani (centre, green) winning at Goodwood

Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.

Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.

I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.

Minding (1,000 guineas)

Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.

Back tomorrow for Derby Day.