Tag Archives: royal ascot

Favourites upset?

June 24, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Final day of Royal Ascot and it has been a thoroughly enjoyable meeting for true followers of horse racing.

We have had consistent Good to Firm going all week and it remains so today. For form students this will make the full five days a solid point of reference.

2.30 7f Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

Sixteen to post and the clear market leader is Aidan O’Brien’s filly September.

She impressed on her debut at Leopardstown on yielding ground. Races on quicker ground today.

Masar’s debut win at Goodwood is strong form.

He looks sure to figure and at the prices is my preferred.

Currently the books go 11/10 September and 6/1 Masar.

4.20 6f Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)

An in form Limato would set a very high standard. Winner of two Group 1’s last season.

However he has disappointed on his last two starts. It will be worth noting the level of market support.

Magical Memory’s reappearance run at York was very encouraging and he is expected to go close. Currently a general 8/1.

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horse racing

Hurry Up Harry

June 23, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Another fabulous day of world class racing from Royal Ascot. The going remains at Good to Firm and the course has been watered.

Yesterday that watering saw an ‘evening up’ of chances for the lower drawn on the straight course after the high draws had been dominant the previous day. I am anticipating that outcomes today will be more weighted towards where the pace is rather than the starting position on the course.

3.05 1m4f King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)

Crystal Ocean expected to improve for this step up to 12f.

His chance is reflected in the market who quote around the 9/4 mark.

Best Of Days was a good 2yo and is worth a very close look on seasonal reappearance.

Salouen ran far better than finishing position suggests in the Derby and is my marginal preference. Currently a general 15/2.

The disruption caused by the weather to preparations this season is amplified by quite a few in this race.

3.40 6f Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

What a race!!

Three high class sprinters head the market.

At the prices I favour Harry Angel, who impressed greatly on his latest start at Haydock.

I expect him to reverse form with Blue Point, who beat him over c/d earlier in the season.

Caravaggio may well be a superstar, but will probably need to be to beat Harry Angel.

There is a bit of 10/3 on offer for Harry Angel, which looks about right.

Just the three bets at Royal Ascot this week and a profit on stakes of over 100%.

horse racing

Mou to progress

June 17, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Two races for us to quickly look at. One each from Sandown and Musselburgh. The going at both is Good to Firm.

2.40 Sandown

5f Listed sprint and the only race on the card being shown by ITV4.

Both Fashion Queen and Equimou put up career best performances on their latest starts.

Both are expected to progress further.

My provisional tissue:

Fashion Queen 7/2

Equimou 11/2

3.10 Musselburgh

5f sprint handicap worth over £62,000 to the winner.

Gamesome is fairly handicapped and has a good draw. Expected to go well in a wide open race.

Anything around 10/1 is reasonable.

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horse racing

Royal Ascot special

June 16, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

My main concentration today is on the evening card at Aintree and my continued preparations for Royal Ascot. The afternoon flat cards are not appealing and there is one race at Newton Abbot to look at.

3.55 Newton Abbot

Bagad Bihoue will find it difficult to give 10lbs to Kayf Blanco, if that one puts in an adequate round of jumping. I have them in at evens the pair, which is quite a bit different to the early layers.

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Seven meetings and fifty-one races in Britain tomorrow. Come back in the morning for my early analysis of selected races.

horse racing

Batgirl

June 10, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

The rain coming in from the Atlantic across the north and Wales has produced softer conditions for six of the eight meetings today across Britain and Ireland. Only Newmarket and Stratford have escaped the deluge. The continued absence of consistent going has been a troubling feature of the summer season for all concerned.

Two races for us to consider today with widely contrasting conditions. At Haydock it is Soft with further rain forecast and Stratford have Good ground which has been selectively watered.

3.30 Haydock 1m4f Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3)

Ajman Princess won convincingly on latest start at Goodwood in a Listed event, although she did flash her tail when urged by the whip. Soft ground shouldn’t be an issue.

Bateel moved from David Simcock to the Graffard yard in France at the end of April this year. She is suited by testing ground, has solid form and looks sure to go close.

5/2 joint favs my provisional tissue. Laganore now a non-runner.

7.00 Stratford 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Tight handicap where most of the runners have form that ties them together.

Barman is returning from a six month break and is expected to go well.

4/1 fav my provisional tissue.

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horse racing

Haydock highlight

June 9, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Only 11 days to Royal Ascot and the racing on offer today is modest.

Quick look at one race this evening at Haydock where the going is Soft after plenty of rain in the North-West. The forecast is for a sunny day with a drying westerly wind.

Haydock 7.25

A 5f Listed race with prize money of just over £37,000. Far and away the premier race on the card and the day overall.

Final Venture and Ornate have the best form although neither are certain to produce it on softer ground.

After a good spell in Dubai, Final Venture finished a promising fourth in the Temple Stakes over today’s C/D.

Ornate ran an excellent second on his first start for his present stable before disappointing on his latest start in the Group 3 Palace House at Newmarket.

Final Venture has soft ground form from earlier in his career and is preferred.

Difficult to price, but 2/1 would be fair.

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horse racing

Tin to strike gold?

June 18, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Final day of Royal Ascot and as it has been all week, the going is the primary factor for many. Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said this morning, “It is good to soft here and we’ve been dry since a little bit of rain on Friday night. We may see a further change to the going on the straight course later to reflect the drying conditions.”

We are looking at two races today.

3.05 Ascot Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race)

Maleficent Queen is progressive and is expected to figure in a wide open affair. Comes here on a winning run of five, including both her starts this season. Both victories achieved on Good to Soft.

The market is headed by another 4y.o. – the Godolphin owned Best Of Times. Currently priced at around 4/1 with Maleficent Queen second best at 8/1.

4.20 Ascot Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Just the nine to post, but a truly global challenge with entries from Australia, America, France and Hong Kong contesting for the £600,000 prize money. My preference is for the Newmarket trained, The Tin Man. Just one outing this season when smartly winning a good quality race at Windsor last month.

The Tin Man is a highly progressive horse, with conditions to suit and winning form at the track.

I go 3/1 on my private tissue whilst the books are a general 7/2 – 4/1. It is very tight at the head of the market.

Fantastic afternoon of racing and I hope you have a good day.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Soft not terrible for Ivan

June 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We are at the mercy of the rain clouds at Royal Ascot today. Clerk of the course, Chris Stickels explains:

“We’re still soft at the moment. We had 1.5mm of rain late yesterday evening but it’s been dry since. We’re forecast showers, some of them possibly thundery, but if we miss them I may look at changing the going by the time racing starts. That’s only if we miss the rain.”

With that in mind, I am going to concentrate on early value for our preview today and then brief clients later once we have a better view of the going.

3.40: Quiet Reflection deserves to be a short odds favourite after her emphatic victory at Haydock last time. Left Donjuan Triumphant and La Rioja behind her by a good margin.

The value for me is Log Out Island. Made all to win a listed race at Newbury just under two weeks ago and won unchallenged.

I go 2/1 Quiet Reflection and 5/1 Log Out Island.

5.00: As you would expect at this meeting – a wide open big money handicap.

The one that interests me is Ivan Grozny. Returns to the flat after Aintree success on a fair handicap mark. Guaranteed to go on soft ground. The early 14/1 is being snapped up and is now as low as 10/1.

Back tomorrow for the final day at Ascot which has already rewarded me with a 7/1 winner from my selective betting.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Victory Sign?

June 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

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Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service