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Never Mind The Quality

Plenty of racing today with six meetings ranging from Musselburgh in the north, right down to Brighton on the south coast.

However, it is a matter of ‘never mind the quality, feel the width.’ A lot of today’s offering is guesswork maidens or low grade handicaps.

Two races for us at Worcester this evening to consider.

The going is Good and the ground has been watered.

6.20: Five runners for this Class 4 Novice Chase. Ballybroker Breeze carries a 6lb higher weight than all of his rivals with 11-4. Won on his chase debut at Perth last month. Southfield Vic has the best form but isn’t trustworthy. His overall level and experience at both hurdles and fences makes him the favourite here. Given his best, he should win, but that best is never guaranteed.

Southfield Vic
Southfield Vic

I price them up as follows:

Southfield Vic 6/4

Ballyboker Breeze 3/1

Fort Worth 3/1

10/1 Bar

7.50: I have Truckers Glory and Our Reward in at 9/4 joint favourites. My marginal preference would be for Truckers Glory with the experienced conditional Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb.

Better cards for us tomorrow.

Appeared to progress?

A terrific day of racing ahead both in Britain and Ireland. Two races for us to look at; the first at York where the going is Good. Heavy rain is forecast before racing commences at 2.05 with intermittent showers throughout the afternoon. We also go to Haydock, which has a similar weather forecast on ground which is already Good to Soft in places. The widespread softening of the ground has resulted in plenty of non-runners today.

 3.15 York Federation of Bloodstock Agents Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3)

Appeared made his turf debut for Roger Varian at the Dante meeting in a Class 4. Despite hanging and not looking a straightforward ride, the 4y.o. was most impressive when winning over today’s C&D.  Providing his temperament can be kept under control he can make further progress. He looks to have the latent talent to be a listed/group race performer.

Although expected to be effective on today’s quicker ground, any rain would be welcomed. I put him in at a provisional 2/1, which is the best price currently on offer. The whole field is priced up very similar to my tissue.

 

Interception Wokigham
Interception winning the 2015 Wokingham

 

3.40 Haydock EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Interception sets a very decent standard on last season’s form and is not expected to lack for fitness on her return to action. She has been confirmed in-foal and connections will want to get as much race success with her before she retires to the paddocks.

Difficult to price with total confidence but around 3/1 looks fair.

Morning favourite Thetis is a NR.

 

With Epsom and Royal Ascot on the horizon, there will be pointers today worth noting.

 

Grey Day at Goodwood?

Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.

Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.

Midterm beating Algometer at Sandown
Midterm beating Algometer at Sandown

Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.

Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.

No Second For Step?

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Second Step
Second Step

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.

66/1 & Victory

An excellent day of racing ahead. Haydock report the going as Good whilst Ascot is Good to Firm. One race from each meeting for us today.

2.15 Haydock Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered as The Swinton Hurdle) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

First big handicap hurdle of new season.

John Constable is fairly handicapped and from a stable that has won this race previously.

Gwafa is unexposed and is expected to be suited by conditions.

In such an open race I would prefer to focus on a couple of horses that should be considered at much bigger odds and it is worth looking at the foot of the market.

Both Roman Flight and Regulation will be suited by conditions and are expected to run well. The pair are both available at 66/1 in places.

 

Sign Of A Victory
Sign Of A Victory

 

2.30 Ascot Leo Bancroft Signature Haircare Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95)

The well bred Sign Of A Victory stands out in this first start in a flat handicap. His last race was in the Champion Hurdle in which he showed up well. Potentially very well handicapped and should be kept onside.

Difficult to price because if Sign Of A Victory transfers his jumps ability to the flat, very short odds would then be justified. Currently a best priced 9/4, which seems fair.

Making Plans For Nigel

Five British turf meetings for us today with good ground at all of them.

We start this afternoon at Market Rasen with Detour Ahead in the 2.50. After a long absence she hinted at a return to form last time at Bangor having been pulled up on her two return outings. Steps up in grade today and has winning form on good ground.

I make her 4/1 on my private tissue.

Ascot-Racecourse
Ascot racecourse

Our next race is the opener from this evening’s card at Ascot. Nigel is a horse I noted early last year. He failed to deliver on the promise shown despite being a warm order in the market on a number of occasions.

Has recently moved from the John Gosden yard to Richard Hughes in Upper Lambourn. Steps up in distance to 2 miles and is worth a look.

Difficult race to price accurately. The bookmakers are going a cautious 9/2.

Back tomorrow morning when we have Ascot and Haydock as the highlights.

Looking for value

Two major races for us this afternoon both dominated by horses from the major Irish yards. As I have touched on previously, the power of such stables has been contentious in Ireland in recent years and is now starting to have a similar effect in Britain.

3.45 Newmarket 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

Air Force Blue chance is reflected in his price and offers little value. The Dewhurst winner is a general 8/11. First time tongue-tie.

The form of Marcel’s Racing Post Trophy win is solid. Ease in the ground is fine and I would expect him to go well. At a best price 11/1 he looks a decent each way prospect.

marcel 2
Marcel

 

3.50 Punchestown Mares Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Limini is short in the market on the form achieved. Raced keenly at Aintree last time and that exertion told in the final stages.

As we continue to witness, the Mullins’ horses can improve significantly, but I would be wary of taking short odds about Limini. Gets a general 11/10 quote from the layers, I go 9/4 the field. Jennies Jewel is now a non-runner.

 

Gold for Kerry?

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Vroum Vroum Mag
Vroum Vroum Mag

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.

Wolf to defy Mullins?

As the trainers title race goes right to the final day, two races for us this afternoon at Sandown. The going is good and a dry afternoon is forecast.

 2.20 Sandown bet365 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2)

Voix Du Reve held every chance when falling at final hurdle at Cheltenham. Has been put up 5lb in the handicap, although David Mullins can claim 3lb. Must go close, but that is reflected in the market. Currently a best priced 3/1 and a general 9/4 – 5/2 elsewhere.

At bigger odds a case can be made for Wolf Of Windlesham, who was last seen winning on the flat. Lightly campaigned over the winter with two victories from three starts over hurdles, including winning the JCB trial at Cheltenham.

 

wolf-of-windlesham
Wolf Of Windlesham

 

I price the market leaders as follows:

Voix Du Reve  5/2

Tommy Silver 4/1

Wolf Of Windlesham 8/1

Ashoka  8/1

12/1 bar

 

4.10 Sandown bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1)

Southfield Theatre is well handicapped on his second in last year’s RSA. Hard to know what form he is in after being brought down before the race had really began at Cheltenham. The £84,000 winners prize would be a significant step towards the title for Paul Nicholls.

southfield-theatre
Southfield Theatre

Henri Parry Morgan had looked exposed, but has reached a new level in form since being fitted with a tongue tie. He finished an excellent second in a Grade 1 at Aintree two weeks ago and still looks progressive. I expect him to run a big race.

Wide open race, the  8/1 on offer for the two mentioned looks about right.

Another winning bet for us yesterday to make it four from five on the week. For more details about my work, go to the website: www.slh.co.uk

Parsnip @ Perth

Last few days of the 2015/16 jumps season before we have a break and start the new season on Thursday at Towcester.

One race for us to look at this afternoon, the 2.30 from what has been a very good three days at Perth. Parsnip Pete starts for the first time this year since running poorly at the Cheltenham International meeting in December. The 10 y.o. steps down in class today and is on a favourable handicap mark if retaining some of his old ability. Difficult race to price up, I would go 7/2 the field on my provisional tissue.

Parsnip pete
Parsnip Pete on his way to victory at Aintree

We are ending the season strongly. Three winners from four bets so far this week.

Have a few visits with flat contacts lined up next week. The emphasis will be to significantly build upon the profits made so far this year over the summer campaign.

Back tomorrow morning. Let’s hope we can narrow things down like we did last week in the Scottish National with Vicente and Seeyouatmidnight. The winner was well backed from the morning 22/1 into 14/1.