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Cheltenham Gold Cup

Preview extracts for the premier event of the festival…

Many Clouds participation last year was abruptly ended when he was brought down in the RSA Chase. His improvement has been marked this year culminating with his Betbright Cup victory.

Whilst Coneygree  is inexperienced, his natural jumping ability could see him be crowned as the third successive 8 y.o. to lift the major crown of the meeting.

Djakadam is one of the most exciting horses in the Gold Cup line up, and he could run a massive race.  Willie Mullins’ gelding was travelling really well in the JLT Chase at last year’s Festival when he came down at the fourth last fence.

There is every chance that Djakadam will improve again between the Thyestes and Cheltenham, and as Long Run proved four years ago that it is possible in the modern era for a six-year-old to win the Gold Cup.

And on to the statistics…

Gold Cup – 10 Year Trends

Age 7 to 9 – 9 out of 10

All finished in the first 6 last time out

All were Grade 1 winners

First three in betting – 9 out of 10

Run in King George/Lexus chase – 9 out of 10 (exception won the Henessy)

Two to five runs in the season – 9 out of 10

No Irish Hennessy winner

None had won at the third attempt

Trends here would rule out favourite Silviniaco Conti, Carlingford Lough, Holywell, while virtually ruling out Many Clouds and  Djakadam, but they did run in the Hennessy. This leaves Road to Riches who has been one of the surprise packages of the season and an impressive winner of his last two. He’s been kept fresh for this and looks sure to go well.

A final mention has to be for last year’s winner Lord Windermere. If he was with Mullins, Nicholls or Henderson he would probably be half his odds. He has been prepared the same way as last year and you could argue he has ran better. It’s a horse with proven festival form and must rate a serious danger to all.

Cheltenham 3.20 World Hurdle

A look at some of the extracts from the preview…

20/1 for Reve De Sivola is a big price when you consider how closely his most recent form ties in with the Paul Nicholls’ market leaders: Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar.

He is a sound stayer and soft ground will certainly bring this experienced Cheltenham campaigner into contention.

Lieutenant Colonel is a little bit of a forgotten horse here.  He was a good novice hurdler last season and ran well for a long way in the Neptune Hurdle before fading late on. But his late and much lamented trainer Dessie Hughes always said that he would benefit from another season jumping hurdles. Still just a six-year-old, it is reasonable to expect further improvement from the Gigginstown House gelding.

From a statistical viewpoint…

World Hurdle – 10 Year Trends

All aged 6 to 9

Top two finish last time – 9 out of 10

All has won in last two runs

All from the first four in the betting

Two to four runs that season

Trends here would rule out third favourite Rock on Ruby, along with other fancied horses: Un Temps Pour Tout, Whisper, Blue Fashion and Monksland. Question marks still surround Zarkander staying the distance and Saphir De Reu after an aborted chasing campaign.

Lieutenant Colonel could be the value bet here.  He’s been running well this season and a guaranteed stayer up the Cheltenham hill.

Cheltenham 3.20 – Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

A few stats from the charity preview:

Age 7 to 9 – 9 out of 10

Christmas Hurdle at Kempton – Only 1 winner last 10 years

Ran in same calendar year – 9 out of 10

All ran in last 51 days

On these stats this leaves just Jezki and Arctic Fire. However, the final assessment in the preview leaves this as a duel between The New One and Faugheen, with Arctic Fire being the value option for each way backers.

Kempton: Betbright Chase preview Saturday 21st February

Tap Night has been a disappointing horse but has become well handicapped. Stayed on when the race was over at Cheltenham on latest start. Steps up to 3 miles and is fitted with first time cheek-pieces. Is of interest at 10/1 generally. (11/1 with the sponsors)

Fox Appeal is running consistently well and  still figures on a fair mark in the context of this race. The step back up in distance may suit and at 6/1 I would want to keep him “onside”.

Cheltenham 2015

Steve will again be raising much needed donations for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff and their families.

Donations start from £25 for membership from Saturday 7th to Sunday 15th March, which includes all four days of the Festival.

All Special Charity memberships will include:

– Exclusive Cheltenham Preview

– Horses to follow directly from the Lambourn trainers

– Advance booking discount

You can pre-register now by either:

– Email Steve@slh.co.uk providing your full name and postal address

– Racing Office on 0208 650 5721

UPDATE: Four horses to follow at the Festival already received from Nicky Henderson. Register now and qualify for the advance booking discount.