Going to look at the Coronation Cup and the Oaks. With both races there are plenty of unknown factors to weigh up, which makes accurate pricing even more difficult.
The going at Epsom is Good and a warm cloudy day is forecast.
Epsom 3.10 1m4f Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (4yo+)
Highland Reel sets the standard if at his best. He was well below form on his latest start in Dubai in unsuitable conditions.
Journey progressed throughout last season, putting up her best performance at Ascot on her final start in October. Today is her seasonal debut. She could be the one to take advantage if Highland Reel is below par.
I provisionally go:
Highland Reel 9/4
Epsom 4.30 1m4f Investec Oaks (Group 1) (3yo)
Enable stayed on well to win at Chester and is expected to go close.
However there’s a chance that Rhododendron could be a higher class filly and can continue Aidan O’Brien’s excellent record in this race.
She ran an excellent second in the 1000 Guineas behind subsequent Irish Guineas winner Winter.
I provisionally go:
Looking to build upon a good start to the week with two winners from our only three bets plus the additional race analysis for members own use has been extremely accurate providing more selective winners.
We stay at Epsom for today’s analysis. Whilst the going remains as Good to Soft, the ground is drying and a warm, dry day is forecast.
3.10 Epsom Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Postponed is a horse of the highest class. There has been debate about the conditions and he has eased in the betting as a result. I think conditions are fine and if he runs to his best I expect him to win.
His trainer Roger Varian said, “he handled a bit of give when winning the King George and the Prix Foy but a faster surface suits him better and he wouldn’t want it too soft.”
My tissue is very similar to prices available
Simple Verse 9/2
4.30 Epsom Investec Derby (Group 1)
This is such an open race that it wouldn’t be a major surprise if any one of 14 of the 16 runners taking part won.
My two against the field are:
Wings Of Desire impressed in the Dante where he snatched victory from Deauville as the line approached. I would be disappointed if he doesn’t run close.
Andre Fabre is represented by the experienced Cloth Of Stars. Has won both his outings this season in good style. Had a gallop here at the Breakfast with the Stars morning.
Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.
Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.
Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.
Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.
Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.
I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.
Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.
Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.
I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.
Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.
Back tomorrow for Derby Day.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service