Tag Archives: slh

Medici renaissance?

In what has been a low grade week, we have another modest days racing. Thankfully the standard picks up a bit tomorrow.

Two races for us to analyse today.

Newmarket 3.45: Mediciman is a noted horse from last season who has been one of the few disappointments from the shortlist.

Steps down in grade and up in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time. The extra distance should suit. A very tight knit seven runner handicap where no runner can be discounted.

I would want 5/1 for Mediciman, currently 9/2 best. He knows this course well .Three of his career starts have been here, including his last two.

Newmarket racecourse.
Newmarket racecourse.

Down Royal 5.45: Intriguing and relatively valuable 2m hurdle.

Prickly has proved inconsistent in the past but impressed when winning on the flat at Killarney last time. If reproducing that level of ability over hurdles he will take plenty of beating.

Has winning course form in a bumper last year.
However if Prickly disappoints again, Mai Fitz looks the one to take advantage.

I go 5/2 Prickly and 3/1 Mai Fitz.


Really exhilirating end to the month with a big winner last Saturday and a strong bet 7/2 winner from our only two bets so far this week.

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Rain west, look East

After two days of sunshine and fast ground, the rain is set to descend on York from around noon today. With heavy rain forecast during racing, there could be a pronounced affect on the going. Two races for us to look at.

York 2.30: Pallasator finished a creditable second in the Goodwood Cup. From that showing he holds four of todays rivals. Wicklow Brave getting closest in a non-competitive fourth place.

Pallasator can be fractious, but if he is kept calm prior to the off, looks sure to go close. Handles all ground conditions.

Last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris is respected after showing well on return in July following a tendon injury. Fifth in this race last year before setting off for the southern hemisphere with high profile runs in Australia and Japan.

I have the market leaders priced as follows:

Pallasator 3/1

Trip To Paris 7/2

Clever Cookie 4/1


York 3.40: Whilst the predicted rain may not have got into the firm ground for the opening races, by mid-afternoon things could look a lot different.

Mecca’s Angel won this race last year by a 2f margin. Which is quite impressive for such a 5f Group 1 sprint. Three outings this season with the latest bringing a Group 2 victory at the Curragh.

July Cup winner Limato heads the betting. Takes on 5f for the first time.

Yalta is one of two 2 y.o.’s in the race and as such gets a sizeable weight pull from his older rivals. Left the field in his wake when running away with the Molecomb at Goodwood.

I am going to price this when I have a better idea of ground conditions. Of the three studied, only Mecca’s Angel will be suited by easing ground. There was some 6/1 on offer very early this morning but that has been taken in anticipation of a going change.

Meccas Angel
Mecca’s Angel

No improvement in the weather is forecast for tomorrow when I will return to look at a few more feature races.

On the Rajar

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Exceeding Power
Exceeding Power

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

Mrs Danvers

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.

Another repeat performance?

Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.

The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.

Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.

Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.

As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.

Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.

Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.

Promising Run

Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.

Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.


Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.

Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.

Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.

Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.

An Ethel win?

Meetings from three of the Grade 1 tracks today with Ascot this afternoon plus Newmarket and York this evening.

We are going to look at two afternoon races away from the higher profile venues.

Uttoxeter 1.40: Ethelwyn has yet to see the winners enclosure in her eleven career starts. For me, she is risky at short odds.

Two outings this season and on both occasions narrowly beaten. Has the ability to win, but finds little for pressure.

Angel Face has a similar level of form at her best and gets the experience of Tom O’Brien in the saddle for the first time today. His last ride at this course saw him cajole an unlikely victory.

This looks more open than the betting suggests as a couple of others can’t be dismissed.

I price the market leaderrs as follows:

Ethelwyn 2/1

Angel Face 7/2

Middleton’s Minx 4/1

Miss Mobot 8/1

Book At Bedtime 10/1

Ethelwyn leading Black Ivory on the gallops.

Thirsk 3.40: Good to Firm ground here, which has been watered.

Glitter Girl and Starlight Romance head the market in this maiden fillies stakes for 2 y.o.’s. Both will be suited by this step up to 7f.

Glitter Girl showed plenty of ability on debut over 6f, staying on well after being slightly outpaced.

Starlight Romance was noted on debut over 6f at York and run a similar race on her second start over the same c/d-outpaced before staying on. She looks to be crying out for 7f and further.

My early tissue has Glitter Girl in at 7/4 with Starlight Romance slightly shorter at 9/4 than the general odds on offer.

Glorious Goodwood

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Stoute vs Gosden

After a lot of low grade racing so far this week, we have some quality to go at from Newbury plus an interesting maiden at Nottingham.

Good ground at most of the tracks today with the exception being Haydock who report soft ground with rain forecast.

Two races to look at.

Mokarris (back right) struggles at Royal Ascot

Newbury 3.40: A 2 y.o. listed race with the favourite Mokarris of interest.

Impressed on debut at Haydock before disappointing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With so many at Royal Ascot, the form in unsuitable conditions can be forgiven. I would expect a return to form on today’s faster ground.

I have put Mokarris in at 3/1 on my provisional tissue. The bookmakers are taking no chances and go as low as 6/4. Would expect some ease in price once the market gets more fluidity.

Nottingham 4.05: The market is dominated by To Eternity and Honorina.

To Eternity was noted on debut when just failing to overturn the odds-on favourite at Doncaster. It was a victory for Michael Stoute on that occasion and the Gosden filly has another Stoute 3 y.o. to overcome today in the shape of Honorina.

Honorina has been off the course for eleven months after her two decent runs as a 2 y.o.

It looks an interesting battle between the pair.

Mehmas – one from the free noted horses shortlist

Three bets for us so far this week, with two successful. There are special terms now available and you can get my free information pack. The pack also includes my noted horses. The latest winner from the shortlist being Mehmas who won well at the Newmarket July meeting last week.

For more details, visit my website.

Back tomorrow morning as we have a good mix of flat and jumps to look at.

Ladies Day

Unlike many of the high profile meetings over recent weeks. Newmarket today will be run on ground more fitting to the time of year.

We have Good to Firm going and some watering has taken place. A warm dry afternoon is forecast.

Two races for us today from Newmarket.

3.45: The market is tight around Bletchley and Nasimi. They are the two I would like to focus upon. Two races only for Bletchley, a big odds win on debut at Nottingham which earned her a trip to Royal Ascot. She showed her inexperience in the Albany before staying on well for a close run second. That form sets the standard.

Nasimi has race just once, a very eye catching debut at Haydock. She did most things wrong, but still powered home for an easy win. Significant improvement can be expected.

On my tissue I make Bletchley 3/1 favourite with Nasimi in at 4/1.

Bletchley (near)
Bletchley (near side) at Royal Ascot

4.15: Usherette is a warm order with a general quote of 4/6 and 8/11. Although a handful of firms want to take her on. How much they will actually lay is questionable.

She is unbeaten in all four starts this year. Impressed on latest start when winning comfortably at Royal Ascot on soft ground. She sets the recent form standard.

When Alice Springs ran on the Friday, the ground had improved but her luck in running definitely had not. My view is that given a clear run she would have won that day.

She was very impressive in her final 2 y.o. race at this course and has plenty of improvement to come. I expect Ryan Moore to keep her out of trouble this time.

I have Usherette in at Evens and Alice Springs at 4/1.

Alice Springs
Alice Springs

A lot is being made of the Royal Ascot form, but the huge difference in conditions at that meeting and what we will get today has to be factored in.

Good start for us at Newmarket yesterday. Four races analysed, two winners at 3/1 and 11/4, plus my reservations regarding The Grey Gatsby were confirmed as the 11/4 favourite never seriously challenged the winner.

Back tomorrow for the final day at the Newmarket July meeting.

Bobby, Jackie and Roger?

Great disparity in going across the country today. Down in Devon Newton Abbot report Good to Firm whilst towards the South East Sandown is Good to Soft.

Travel to the three northern meetings and we have soft ground at both Haydock and Doncaster. Whereas Beverly, just an hour from Doncaster, race on Good ground.

The past few weeks have been a guessing game for connections as to which conditions their horses will face on the day. Goes a long way to explaining the large number of horses already pulled out today.

We are going to quickly look at two races.

Sandown 4.00: What About Carlo is already a non-runner, leaving five to post in this valuable listed race. Roger Charlton sent Ayrad to Chantilly for a competitive Group 2 for his last outing. Showed up well and weakened in the latter stages on soft ground. Drops back to 2f today. Has shown he can handle the conditions. Cheek pieces fitted for the first time.

For me, there are doubts concerning trip and ground with main market rivals Spark Plug and Gm Hopkins.

I put Ayrad in at 7/4 on my private tissue.

Ayrad (left) locked in a three way fight to the line
Ayrad (left) locked in a three way fight to the line

Newton Abbot 3.45: Tricky handicap with a case to be made for a few here. On a point of value, Listen and Learn looks overpriced at the 14/1 on offer in places. Richard Johnson takes the ride on O’Neill’s only runner today. Worth watching the market.

Back tomorrow when Channel 4 concentrate on seven races from Haydock and Sandown including the Lancashire Oaks and the Eclipse.

How’s Your Luck?

Such is the nature of fixture planning these days that we have a meeting at Cartmel this afternoon, nothing tomorrow and then resume on Sunday.


A quick look at two races from Cartmel.

3.35: Shady Glen beat Wiffy Chatsby last Sunday at Worcester in a scruffy race.

Sean Bowen on Wiffy Chatsby lost an iron and had to kick the other out. Despite all efforts the impediment cost any chance.

Should Shady Glen put up a good run Wiffy Chatsby’s chances would be boosted when he runs in the following race.

4.40: Good of Luck put up a strong showing when winning on the flat at Newbury earlier this month. At the current double figure odds, he looks overpriced in this competitive hurdle.

Whilst the going is declared as good at Cartmel there is a chance of rain at the track later today.

The other meetings will all have varying degrees of soft ground to contend with. Both the meetings at Newmarket and Yarmouth are prone to non-runners as connections decide to wait for better ground.

Back tomorrow as Newcastle and Newmarket are the headliners, plus it is Derby day in Ireland.

Tin to strike gold?

Final day of Royal Ascot and as it has been all week, the going is the primary factor for many. Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said this morning, “It is good to soft here and we’ve been dry since a little bit of rain on Friday night. We may see a further change to the going on the straight course later to reflect the drying conditions.”

We are looking at two races today.

3.05 Ascot Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race)

Maleficent Queen is progressive and is expected to figure in a wide open affair. Comes here on a winning run of five, including both her starts this season. Both victories achieved on Good to Soft.

The market is headed by another 4y.o. – the Godolphin owned Best Of Times. Currently priced at around 4/1 with Maleficent Queen second best at 8/1.

Maleficent Queen

4.20 Ascot Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Just the nine to post, but a truly global challenge with entries from Australia, America, France and Hong Kong contesting for the £600,000 prize money.  My preference is for the Newmarket trained, The Tin Man. Just one outing this season when smartly winning a good quality race at Windsor last month.

The Tin Man is a highly progressive horse, with conditions to suit and winning form at the track.

I go 3/1 on my private tissue whilst the books are a general 7/2 – 4/1. It is very tight at the head of the market.


The Tin Man


Fantastic afternoon of racing and I hope you have a good day.