Top quality afternoon of racing with the Clarence House being the premier race of the day. One of seven graded races from Ascot and Haydock. At a lower level, we also have an interesting card from Taunton.
We are staying at Ascot for the early analysis. Heavy rain is forecast throughout the morning which lightens during racing. The reported soft ground is likely to ease further as the day progresses.
3.00 2m5f bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
A case of sorts can be made for all of today’s six remaining runners after three came out first thing this morning.
Acting Lass is progressive. However his chase wins were gained at Leicester and Market Rasen. He takes on stronger opposition here and could be a vulnerable favourite.
The horse that interests me most is the outsider Minella Daddy.
He hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day 2016. He had been progressive until that run, and returns to action on a fair handicap mark. Minella Daddy’s best two performances have been at this track. The 2m 5f today in testing conditions will take plenty of the stamina he has shown over 3m.
Looking at the odds currently on offer I would make two observations: Acting Lass at 6/4 looks skinny and the 12/1 for Minella Daddy is value in theory.
3.35 2m1f Royal Salute Whisky Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Un De Sceaux sets a high standard. His reappearance win at Cork indicates that he retains plenty of ability.
Brain Power impressed on chase debut before disappointing at Sandown.
Kylemore Lough can be forgiven his latest pulled-up on latest start at Cheltenham.
He was in front travelling well, when he made a terrible mistake at the water jump and could never recover his rhythm.
I expect him to go well on this second run for Harry Fry. Currently a best quoted 12/1.
My private tissue:
Un De Sceaux 4/7
Brain Power 5/1
Kylemore Lough 5/1
I will be getting going reports direct from course contacts before finalising my betting plans and briefing members at lunchtime. Haydock has passed the inspection and like Taunton, the ground will be testing. It is important to have up to date going reports with such changeable conditions.
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
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