All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

Soft not terrible for Ivan

June 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We are at the mercy of the rain clouds at Royal Ascot today. Clerk of the course, Chris Stickels explains:

“We’re still soft at the moment. We had 1.5mm of rain late yesterday evening but it’s been dry since. We’re forecast showers, some of them possibly thundery, but if we miss them I may look at changing the going by the time racing starts. That’s only if we miss the rain.”

With that in mind, I am going to concentrate on early value for our preview today and then brief clients later once we have a better view of the going.

3.40: Quiet Reflection deserves to be a short odds favourite after her emphatic victory at Haydock last time. Left Donjuan Triumphant and La Rioja behind her by a good margin.

The value for me is Log Out Island. Made all to win a listed race at Newbury just under two weeks ago and won unchallenged.

I go 2/1 Quiet Reflection and 5/1 Log Out Island.

5.00: As you would expect at this meeting – a wide open big money handicap.

The one that interests me is Ivan Grozny. Returns to the flat after Aintree success on a fair handicap mark. Guaranteed to go on soft ground. The early 14/1 is being snapped up and is now as low as 10/1.

Back tomorrow for the final day at Ascot which has already rewarded me with a 7/1 winner from my selective betting.

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Mu two

June 11, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of racing and sport in general today. The going at York is Good to Soft and there may be rain in the area this afternoon. We also look at one race at Musselburgh, who have a dry day forecast and the going is Good.

With localised thunderstorms predicted, we may see a dramatic change in conditions at some courses. There are plenty of non-runners already so it is advised to check the latest lists before betting.

2.25 York BetStars.uk Home of Spin & Bet Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Lincoln figures on a very fair handicap mark and was noted on reappearance.

Disappointed on latest start when ridden more prominently than usual and tied up in the final furlong. Can go close – if ridden more patiently. John Egan takes the ride for the first time.

Withernsea ran well latest start and will appreciate any softening of the ground. Has taken a marked rise in the weights from that run.

11/2 the field on my provisional tissue in an open race.

3.00 York Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)

Mutakayyef and Muwaary boast decent form at their best. Mutakayyef returns to action after finishing third in the Darley Stakes back in October whilst the lightly raced Muwaary steps on to a racecourse for the first time in almost two years after injury and has been gelded in the interim.

The Hamdan Al Maktoum pair are the two that interest me most. Currently priced up at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively which is no great gift considering the long absences from both.

3.45 Musselburgh William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Over £60,000 on offer for the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap.

Kimberella ran a remarkable race at Epsom last week after missing the break and only just failing to get up. Frederick Tylicki took the ride for the first time on that occasion and retains that ride today. He should gain from that experience.

In theory a high draw should suit – but he is ridden from off the pace and will need luck in running on the stand side rail.

The books go a general 4/1, I would be 6/1 the field.

Our special membership starts today and runs throughout Royal Ascot. You can book your place and get further details on my website.

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Victory Sign?

June 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

We have a Royal Ascot membership special available. Membership starts for tonights three cards. More details on my website.

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Derby star?

June 4, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We stay at Epsom for today’s analysis. Whilst the going remains as Good to Soft, the ground is drying and a warm, dry day is forecast.

3.10 Epsom Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Group 1)

Postponed is a horse of the highest class. There has been debate about the conditions and he has eased in the betting as a result. I think conditions are fine and if he runs to his best I expect him to win.

His trainer Roger Varian said, “he handled a bit of give when winning the King George and the Prix Foy but a faster surface suits him better and he wouldn’t want it too soft.”

My tissue is very similar to prices available

Postponed evens

Found 7/2

Simple Verse 9/2

4.30 Epsom Investec Derby (Group 1)

This is such an open race that it wouldn’t be a major surprise if any one of 14 of the 16 runners taking part won.

My two against the field are:

Wings Of Desire impressed in the Dante where he snatched victory from Deauville as the line approached. I would be disappointed if he doesn’t run close.

Andre Fabre is represented by the experienced Cloth Of Stars. Has won both his outings this season in good style. Had a gallop here at the Breakfast with the Stars morning.

Step up in trip looks sure to suit.

My provisional tissue:

Wings Of Desire 4/1

Cloth Of Stars 7/1

US Army Ranger 7/1

It promises to be an intriguing 2016 Derby.

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Diomed for Decorated?

June 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.

Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.

Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.

Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.

Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.

I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.

Decorated Knight (centre green) — Decorated Knight and Andrea Atzani (centre, green) winning at Goodwood

Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.

Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.

I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.

Minding (1,000 guineas)

Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.

Back tomorrow for Derby Day.

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Palmer double?

May 28, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races from Haydock for us this afternoon; a warm dry day is forecast. Hugo Palmer has a runner in each of our featured races, both figure prominently in my analysis.

3.10 Haydock Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1

Home Of The Brave and So Beloved are the two to concentrate on.

Home Of The Brave is still progressing and must go close. Won a valuable listed race at Leicester last time out where he led for most of the race. Entered up for Royal Ascot.

So Beloved impressed when winning over C&D on latest start. That Haydock form three weeks ago gives him a solid chance.

I put the pair in as my 3/1 joint favourites.

3.45 Haydock 188Bet Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1)

Second of the Hugo Palmer entries to look at is Gifted Master, who comes here seeking his sixth consecutive victory. Noted at Ascot when he made all and stayed on strongly despite an arkward exit from the stalls. Expected to progress further.

Woodcote and Coventry Stakes winner Buratino should appreciate the return to sprinting after his run in the Guineas. He a live danger on last season’s form.

I go 7/4 and 5/1 respectively on my tissue.

The absurdity of current meeting planning is highlighted today as we have no afternoon racing in the south whilst Haydock and Chester compete against each other.

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Never Mind The Quality

May 27, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of racing today with six meetings ranging from Musselburgh in the north, right down to Brighton on the south coast.

However, it is a matter of ‘never mind the quality, feel the width.’ A lot of today’s offering is guesswork maidens or low grade handicaps.

Two races for us at Worcester this evening to consider.

The going is Good and the ground has been watered.

6.20: Five runners for this Class 4 Novice Chase. Ballybroker Breeze carries a 6lb higher weight than all of his rivals with 11-4. Won on his chase debut at Perth last month. Southfield Vic has the best form but isn’t trustworthy. His overall level and experience at both hurdles and fences makes him the favourite here. Given his best, he should win, but that best is never guaranteed.

I price them up as follows:

Southfield Vic 6/4

Ballyboker Breeze 3/1

Fort Worth 3/1

10/1 Bar

7.50: I have Truckers Glory and Our Reward in at 9/4 joint favourites. My marginal preference would be for Truckers Glory with the experienced conditional Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb.

Better cards for us tomorrow.

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Appeared to progress?

May 21, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

A terrific day of racing ahead both in Britain and Ireland. Two races for us to look at; the first at York where the going is Good. Heavy rain is forecast before racing commences at 2.05 with intermittent showers throughout the afternoon. We also go to Haydock, which has a similar weather forecast on ground which is already Good to Soft in places. The widespread softening of the ground has resulted in plenty of non-runners today.

3.15 York Federation of Bloodstock Agents Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3)

Appeared made his turf debut for Roger Varian at the Dante meeting in a Class 4. Despite hanging and not looking a straightforward ride, the 4y.o. was most impressive when winning over today’s C&D. Providing his temperament can be kept under control he can make further progress. He looks to have the latent talent to be a listed/group race performer.

Although expected to be effective on today’s quicker ground, any rain would be welcomed. I put him in at a provisional 2/1, which is the best price currently on offer. The whole field is priced up very similar to my tissue.

Interception Wokigham — Interception winning the 2015 Wokingham

3.40 Haydock EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Interception sets a very decent standard on last season’s form and is not expected to lack for fitness on her return to action. She has been confirmed in-foal and connections will want to get as much race success with her before she retires to the paddocks.

Difficult to price with total confidence but around 3/1 looks fair.

Morning favourite Thetis is a NR.

With Epsom and Royal Ascot on the horizon, there will be pointers today worth noting.

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Grey Day at Goodwood?

May 20, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.

Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.

Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.

Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.

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Good Run?

May 14, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Focus on Newbury today. The ground yesterday was described as either ‘dead’ or ‘gluey’ but a dry night and morning sunshine have allayed fears that we would have unsuitable conditions. The official going is now Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Richard Osgood said: “We’re not too far off good ground. There are just a couple of areas that are softer than others but we will see how they dry out with this nice weather set to continue all day.”

2.45 Newbury Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Eagle Top is a high class and will win if anywhere near his best.

However two below form runs at the end of last season in his Arc trial and the Arc itself have to be excused. Conditions shouldn’t be an issue. Difficult to price accurately because of that dip in form at the season end, but the 4/5 available would be a gift if Eagle Top is back to his mid-season standard shown in the two Ascot runs.

Ryan Moore takes the ride on Carnachy for the first time as the filly looks to extend her unbeaten run.

4.30 Newbury Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo)

Good Run was noted on his final start last season when staying on well to win a 9f nursery handicap at Newmarket and is expected to run a big race.

Conditions are suitable, and fitness not an issue with the Godolphin horses going well. The current 6/1 seems about right.

In all, a really good day of racing that should provide plenty of pointers for the season ahead.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service