Tag Archives: slh

Red Day?

Two races for us to quickly look at this afternoon and then I would like to touch on the new Flat season.

Firstly to the Fontwell 2.10. Billy Merriott has raced just four times since his last victory in November 2012 and has failed to finish in three of them. However, his last outing at Doncaster just over four months ago showed that he could retain some of his old ability. I trust Harry Fry has put plenty of work into the 10 y.o. Impossible race to price with confidence, I would provisionally put Billy Merriott in at 9/4.

A marked step up in class as we go to Ayr for their premier race on the card. The 3.45 is a listed race worth over £25,000 to the winner. Definitly Red and Double Shuffle are at the head of the market.

Definitly Red drops 5lb from his lacklustre showing at the Cheltenham Festival and is on a favourable mark. My negative is the 2m 4f trip may be too sharp.

The bookmakers are taking no chances, with a general 11/4 quote. 9/2 on my tissue.

Pity we have lost Newbury today, but the two days of Newmarket this week have been interesting.

Sutter County
Sutter County

On Wednesday I analysed three additional races for clients personal use as part of the comprehensive racing service provided. Two over the jumps winning at 13/8 and 6/1 plus highlighting the Royal Ascot prospects of Sutter County. Whilst winning narrowly at prohibitive odds, he will come on from that run in fairly testing ground.

Just one flat horse for us the following day, another narrow winner, this time at 3/1.

As a professional, I like to see the flat season take shape before getting involved. Account betting will start in the forthcoming weeks.

Back tomorrow morning.

Update

After a lot of hard work on today’s cards, there is not a lot of value to be had.

At Aintree the three handicaps are incredibly difficult to unravel and I am not going to get sucked in to bookmakers benefit races.

The 3.25 is there for Vautour on the Cheltenham run. This leaves the 2.50 where I go 7/4 Un Temps Pour Tout and 3/1 Blaklion, which leaves minimal value against the books.

Finally the 2.40 Newcastle. Mumgos Debut is dropped in class today in an attempt to get the 8 y.o. into the winners enclosure for the first time in seventeen attempts. 2/1 my tissue.

Back tomorrow.

2/1 the pair

Two races for us to briefly look at today. Both for races that are very tight at the top of the market.

We start in the 2.05 Newcastle.

Looks a match between Lake View Lad and Lamool. The market has them at 4/7 and 6/4 respectively.

Lake View Lad disappointed when stepped up in class at Kelso last time. Drops markedly back to Class 4 again today.

Lamool returns from a six month break. Has won above this level in the past.

Both are off the same weight and have 5lb claimers. I have the pair as even money joint-fav’s.

On to the 2.15 at Aintree.

Limini impressed when winning the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and takes on the boys today.

It’s another Mullins vs Henderson match up with Buveur D’air the main danger. I go 2/1 the pair.

Limini
Limini

Will be doing a quick update for Aintree around 1.30 today.

Grand National preview

The modern day Grand National is very different to the race that was run back in the day.

Modification to the fences and increased prize money have made it a wide open handicap, with the vast majority of runners having some sort of chance.

A brief look at some of the major contenders. I will be analysing the race in greater detail Friday/Saturday when we have a clearer picture.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds is favourite at around 8/1.

He appeared to delight everyone with his latest success at Kelso, where he travelled and jumped well and was visually impressive.  However the form of that Kelso race is suspect.

This year’s renewal looks stronger than the 2015 race and at the current odds Many Clouds is of no value.

Silviniaco Conti returned to form at Ascot when blinkered for the first time following the previously worn cheek-pieces.  A high class horse that is handicapped to win, it is his possible stamina limitations that concern me.

Silviniaco Conti
Silviniaco Conti

The Last Samuri put in a career best run when winning at Doncaster on latest start and could improve again. He looks to have a good mix of speed and stamina and jumps well.

At the 10/1 on offer I would keep him onside.

Holywell and Cause Of Causes were in action at Cheltenham, both horses returning to something near their best.

Cause Of Causes is a thorough stayer who was never nearer than at the finish in last year’s National. At the time of writing he is not sure to get a run as he needs a few above him in the handicap to drop out. If he does take part and his jockey can keep him closer to the leaders he will be staying on at the finish. Around 20/1 is fair.

Holywell was beaten by a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham and if staying the National trip must go well.

Bishops Road comes from the in-form Kerry Lee stable. He stayed on strongly to win the National trial at Haydock. Soft ground would bring him into the reckoning. Currently best priced 25/1.

Bishops Road
Bishops Road

Back tomorrow morning for a look at the Friday card.

Aintree Special

Before looking at today’s racing, just a brief word regarding the Aintree Special membership.

From just £20 (£22.50 to include bets by text), you will get my work from tomorrow right through to the Sunday after the Grand National.

Highlights from a very profitable Aintree last year were:

Rajdhani Express WON 10/1
Saphir Du Rheu WON 7/4
Whisper WON 7.6

All were straight win bets and as you can see, we cater for the traditional and exchange backers.

There is plenty of detail on my website and you can secure your place now at: http://slh.co.uk/index.php/aintree-spec-2016

Aintree starts on Thursday
Aintree starts on Thursday

Newbury start a good two day meeting and there are two races I want to touch on this afternoon.

In the 3.00, I was impressed by Roycano’s performance when winning at Fakenham last time out. This was the 6 y.o.’s first victory in six starts since his hurdling debut in 2013. Whether he can progress and defy the weight rise remains to be seen. The books go 9/4 favourite, I am 3/1 on my tissue.

In the following race at 3.35, bottom weighed Potter’s Cross had every chance when falling five out on latest start. Of his rivals, I see Viva Steve as the main danger. I rate both as 3/1 chances.

Back tomorrow morning.

Intriguing Gold Cup

Plenty of differing opinions and theories as we go in to a very tight looking Gold Cup this afternoon.

For me Cue Card is the value. The Tizzard yard have maintained a high level of consistency all season and I expect Cue Card to be spot on. Based on the King George run, I have Cue Card and Don Cossack on level pegging. There is the conjecture that if the latter had stood up he would have won.

Cue Card
Cue Card

The positive with Don Cossack is his staying strength, which is so important when tackling the uphill finish at Cheltenham. The negative is the need to niggle him along so he can get into a position to use that strength.

Both Donn and our stats man favour Don Cossack. As Donn says in the charity preview:

‘However, it may be that Don Cossack will shade it.  He probably would have won the King George had he not fallen at the second last fence, and that is the strongest piece of form around.  It is a cracking race, though.  It is the most fascinating race of the week, it is the most intriguing Gold Cup that we have seen in some time.’

Last year’s runner up Djakadam demands a lot of respect. Needs to improve and has the scope to do so. Don Poli has a bit more to find to be in contention.

My prices for the front three are:

Don Cossack
Don Cossack

Cue Card 5/2

Don Cossack 5/2

Djakadam 7/2

Last year Coneygree was the stand out value in the race. It is a lot tighter this year.

The Cheltenham preview and membership has proved a valuable asset with quite a few very good winners. For example: Minella Rocco (WON 8/1) and Diamond King (WON 12/1). Myself and Donn have also provided some nice forecasts as we respectively analysed the home and Irish challengers including an £208 Exacta.

Hope you enjoy another fantastic day of racing and I will be back tomorrow to look at a feature race or two.

Cheltenham Preview

Three meetings for us today and a quick look at one race from Ayr this afternoon.

Will be finalising the Cheltenham preview this weekend. If you want to order a copy and help a very worthwhile racing charity, all the details are on my website: www.slh.co.uk.

Online orders via:

Festival preview only: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/2016-cheltenham-festival-preview

Preview & Membership: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/chel-spec-2016

John Hunt has sent in a great piece which is well worth a read.

Pont Alexandre & Roi Des Francs
Pont Alexandre and Roi Des Francs jump together. Get John Hunt’s full Cheltenham thoughts by ordering the preview today.

In the Ayr 2.30, I noted Jumbo John when finishing third at Punchestown last month. I have him at 4/1 on my tissue, which is about the price he is with the books.

Back tomorrow with a look at one of the feature races.

 

 

Cheltenham latest

Two good cards for us from Doncaster and Newbury today and tomorrow.

Before looking at two races at Newbury, I want to bring you up to date with the latest Cheltenham arrangements.

2016 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Get the professional view and make a valuable donation to a very worthwhile racing charity.

From just £25 you will get:

– The Cheltenham preview from leading professional backer, Steve Lewis Hamilton and top Irish racing expert Donn McClean

– Exclusive contributions from Middleham trainer Micky Hammond and racing broadcaster of the year, John Hunt. Plus the telling stats from Paul O’Hara

– Horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers, including Nicky Henderson. Last year the list provided 14/1 winner, Cole Harden

– Access to Steve’s bets and information for the nine days, Saturday 12th to Sunday 20th March

Click here to book now

For more details about the services and the latest results, click here.

ALL OF YOUR £25 FEE GOES TO THE LAMBOURN VALLEY HOUSING TRUST (Registered Charity No. 1049742).

The Trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Keeping vital staff in racing.

Douvan – Back or lay? Get the preview and discover more.
Douvan – Back or lay? Get the preview and discover more.

Back to this afternoon. In the opener, Favorito Buck’s is a warm order to get off the mark for Paul Nicholls since the 4 y.o.’s move from France. Disappointed on debut at Kempton in late December. Tongue-tie fitted and drop in class today. Difficult race to price with so many unknowns. Very recent arrival Lutece could be anything.

The favourite is currently quoted at 5/4. At that sort of price this is more a race to watch.

In the 5.05 Kilcullen Flem steps up to 3m on handicap debut and improvement is expected. I have him in as 7/2 co-fav on my tissue.

Back tomorrow morning with a look at the Saturday action. In the meantime have a look at my website for more on the special charity preview and membership.

Support the stable staff

Advance bookings for the Cheltenham Festival membership and preview now being taken.

The whole package costs £25, with all of your£25 going to racing charity.

For Cheltenham week we are offering you all my work on the Private and Exchange Services for the 9 day period Saturday 12th to Sunday 20th March. The Festival is from the 15th to 18th March.

Plus you will also get the exclusive Cheltenham preview from myself, top Irish racing expert Donn McLean and unique statistical analysis from Paul O’Hara. Plus there will also be guest contributions from a few racing names.

The preview also provides top class information direct from quite a number of the Lambourn trainers. For example, Nicky Henderson has four for you at the Festival plus another to follow late season. Whilst Jonathan Portman has two for the Flat campaign.

The whole package costs just £25 if you book now. We are looking to give all £25 to Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No 1049742). If you want the text service over the nine days there is a £2.50 supplement.

For more details and to book your place, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-special-2016

The Trust build affordable houses for stable staff and their families. Retaining valuable and highly experienced staff within racing.

‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’Peter Walwyn, Chairman of the Lambourn Valley Trainers Association

From last year’s preview of the Champion Chase: At the current prices my attention is drawn to the 5/1 on offer for the progressive Dodging Bullets.
From last year’s preview of the Champion Chase: At the current prices my attention is drawn to the 5/1 on offer for the progressive Dodging Bullets.

The ground is now starting to ease and we can expect bigger and better fields as trainers take advantage of the improving conditions. I have a few noted for their next run.

Back tomorrow for the three meetings Chepstown, Kempton and Newcastle.

Support the Stable Staff

Fakenham has passed its second morning inspection and there will be added interest as Victoria Pendleton rides in the Foxhunters Chase at 4.10.

Quick look at three races today. At Fakenham one that looks overpriced is Raise A Spark in the 2.30. Had every chance when falling on latest two starts. However, emphasis may be more on a clear round than competing with the current odds-on favourite.

The Sandown card has some appeal. In the 2.10 Blandfords Gunner returns after a good win at Leicester in early December. Expected to continue his progression. 3/1 on my tissue which is roughly in line with the current market.

The best race on the card is the 2.45. A Grade 2 in which Jessbess Dream makes a quick reappearance having finished second at Warwick last Saturday.

Katie Too heads the market. Unbeaten from her two runs this season. Whilst she impressed in her latest victory, the current 5/4 seems too short in a competitive race. I make her 3/1 on my provisional tissue.

Katie Too on her way to victory at Fontwell
Katie Too on her way to victory at Fontwell

Good week for us so far with both our bets being profitable. They have been a strong bet on a 20 length 7/4 winner and a successful lay of a 4/5 favourite.

Special memberships are now available. For more details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-festival-2016

A good part of your membership fee will go towards supporting the stable staff.