The unrelenting advertising buzz and speculation preceding the Cheltenham Festival will soon be turned into reality with the drop of the starters flag on Tuesday. Don’t get me wrong, it is a superb meeting; it’s just getting too much like Christmas -the hype begins far too early.
But that aside; I would also like you to part with some money for the festival by supporting a worthwhile racing charity.
For many years I have raised donations for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742). They build affordable homes for stable staff and their families in an area where house prices are far too high for anyone on a low to average wage to reasonably afford. This quote explains their unenviable position:
‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
Myself, Donn McClean, John Hunt and Micky Hammond have all contributed to producing a Cheltenham preview. Just £10 and the whole amount goes to the trust.
Online orders via:
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One race to look at this afternoon is a tight little handicap confined to horses 5yo and older.

2.20 Ayr Ortus Homes Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

The ground at Ayr will be soft towards heavy with rain forecast in the morning and then drying conditions in the afternoon.

Monbeg River is a horse that was noted earlier in the season having won and finished second over to-days C&D. Both races in the space of five days in late October. Returning from a break, I expect him to continue his progression.

He takes on a couple of inform rivals in Ubaltique who won at Catterick recently and Nautical Twilight who still had every chance when falling at Newcastle just two weeks ago.

However the main danger could be the top weighted Indian Voyage, if he returns to form after a poor run at Wetherby.

My overnight tissue:

Monbeg River 5/2
Indian Voyage 4/1
Ubaltique 4/1
Nautical Twilight 5/1
10/1 bar.

Over the four days of the festival, you can keep in touch with me via Twitter and Facebook. But please give a thought to contributing to the good work of the housing trust. Bob Geldof moment over, best of luck with your bets.

Soft ground at all three remaining cards this afternoon. A fairly dry and cold day all round.
As I outlined yesterday, we have special memberships available from £25 for the Cheltenham Festival preview and membership. Proceeds to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families which helps keep these valuable workers in racing. We will donate a minimum of £25 from all memberships.

Steve,
Thank you very much for the excellent cheque which I have received from you. It will be a great help.
The Lambourn Valley Housing Trust continues to work hard for the welfare of the Stable Staff in the Lambourn Valley. Through generous donations and income from the annual Good Friday Lambourn Open Day, 18 houses have been built at Francome Fields on land it purchased and a further two more have been bought.
Best wishes,
Mark Smyly
Chairman, Lambourn Valley Housing Trust

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Following the abandonment of Kelso, just the one race for us today.

3.10 Doncaster BetBright Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)

Softer ground at Donny than was anticipated when entries were made.
Yes I Did sets the standard and conditions are fine as she goes for her fourth victory from five hurdle starts this season.
Hollies Pearl is of interest. Has top class bumper form. She has had problems with her jumping but that improved on latest start when blinkers and a tongue tie were fitted for the first time. That run was at Fakenham over 2 miles, which was much too sharp. Three miles at Donny could see an improvement.
My prices as follows:

Yes I Did 2/1
Briery Belle 4/1
Hollies Pearl 4/1
The Organist 4/1
20/1 bar

Please give serious consideration to the special memberships. My thanks to Donn McClean, Micky Hammond, John Hunt, Paul O’Hara and all the Lambourn trainers for freely providing their services.

Two races for us this afternoon, both at Newcastle. The going is soft and frost sheets were deployed throughout the course to counter the overnight drop in temperature. A dry and cold day is forecast. Whilst conditions are still on the testing side – For the first time in a long time, none of today’s meetings are in heavy ground.

2.50 Newcastle Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Wide open handicap as the seventeen declared contest for the £85,000 on offer.

Ballyculla is of great interest, with the stamina test expected to suit. His last appearance was at Bangor in early December over 3 miles in heavy ground. Headed two out, he battled back to win well. Ran above market expectations at the Cheltenham Festival in the amateur chase on the first day. Warren Greatrix’s assessment of Ballyculla: “I think he’s a better horse than last year, he’s much stronger, and he really ought to be very competitive off this sort of mark. He’s got to have a great chance.”

The 8yo Cork Citizen is a vastly experienced Irish pointer who joined David Pipe last December. Returned to form on his latest and only start so far for his new stable. With Tom Scudamore off to Chepstow, the ride goes to David Noonan. His 5lb claim is a positive.

Impossible race to price accurately. I go:

Ballyculla 7/1 fav.
Rocking Blues 10/1
Cork Citizen 10/1
And to emphasise the competitiveness of the race, I have half of the rest between 10/1-14/1.
3.25 Newcastle Betfred Lotto Novices Hurdle (Class 3)

Bun Doran impressed on latest start at Haydock in January over 2m 3f. Made all and eased down for a very comfortable victory. The longer trip here can bring further improvement.
Expected to prove hard to beat. I make him my 6/4 favourite, best current price is 5/4.

The Festival will soon be upon us. Advance bookings are now being taken for the Cheltenham special membership and preview. Along with all the regular contributions, I am pleased to announce that Micky Hammond will also be adding his thoughts. My congratulations to his assistant trainer Gemma Hogg who won the top prize at the 2016 Godolphin Stud and Stable awards ceremony this week.

Your Cheltenham special subscription goes directly to racing charity to support our valuable stable staff. For more details and to book your place, please go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-special-2016

Three good meetings for us this afternoon from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. Channel 4 show races from all three venues. Ascot going is soft, heavy at Haydock and a combination of the two at Wincanton.
Two races to look at this afternoon, both at Ascot. Continued rain forecast this afternoon which will soften the ground even further. Plenty of prize money on offer and a few here will be having their final run before decisions are made regarding Cheltenham participation.

1.50 Ascot Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)

Drumacoo returned after over a year off to win unchallenged at Huntingdon on his first start for Ben Pauling. But that form is difficult to evaluate and could be a vulnerable favourite.

Onenightinvienna is a strong stayer. He had every chance on latest start, but just seemed to hang fire on the run-in. First time cheek-pieces can help.

Vyta Du Roc can improve for the step up in trip.

Minella Roc has been a major disappointment over fences to date, but is worth keeping an eye on regards the future.

My tissue:
Onenightinvienna 3/1
Drumacoo 10/3
Vyta Du Roc 10/3
10/1 bar

3.35 Ascot Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)

An open affair, with more questions than answers – both Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste having a bit to prove.

Nicky Henderson has two entries here, Ma Filleule and Triolo D’Alene. The latter impressed on his return at Kempton after being away for a year. Expected to go well, although better ground would have been preferable.

My Tissue:
Silviniaco Conti 4/1
Triolo D’Alene 9/2
Dynaste 5/1
Flemenstar 13/2
Royal Regatta 13/2
10/1 bar

Our good run of form continued yesterday with a 7/4 winner and another successful lay of a well touted favourite. That makes it four profitable bets from the four bets only advised this week.
Special festival memberships are now available. For more details about membership and how you will be supporting a very worthwhile racing charity, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-festival-2016

Two meetings for us to concentrate on this afternoon from Warwick and Newbury. We are going to look at a race from each course. It is a day when decisions will be made regarding Cheltenham participation. Our two focus races are prime examples.
The going at Warwick will be heavy, soft in places. Thankfully the weather forecast at Newbury has turned a lot kinder than originally predicted and most of the expected rainfall before racing will now be light. Currently soft with heavy areas on the hurdle course.
2.05 Warwick OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race)

Irish challenger Jennies Jewel sets the standard on recent form having finished a creditable second at Ascot on latest start. The 9y.o. has been extensively campaigned almost exclusively in Ireland. That Ascot run being only her second British start since coming over for the 2014 Cheltenham Festival.

The other Irish challenger is Petite Parisienne from the Willie Mullins yard. Not shown much since winning at the Punchestown Festival last year and was soundly beaten at Sandown on latest start. Hooded for the first time.

All of Jennies Jewel’s opponents can all be given a chance on their best form, but have been disappointing of late. It will pay to watch the market closely. I go 9/4 joint for Jennies Jewel and Jessber’s Dream with Petite Parisienne third in at 9/2.

2.25 Newbury Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2)

Ballynagour has excellent prospects if running near to his best. Cheltenham Festival winner in 2014 and went down narrowly in a Grade 1 at Aintree last year to a resurgent Silviniaco Conti. Started this season with a third place in the Charlie Hall, just under four lengths behind the current top money earner, Cue Card.

After competing in the Betfair Chase and King George on his latest two starts, this represents a slight drop in class. Pulled up on that King George run and I expect David Pipe has put a lot of work into him for this.

Rocky Creek is the obvious danger and most likely to take advantage if Ballynagour is below form. Won the Betbright Chase around this time last year and then went straight to the National, finishing down the field. Since then he has run three times: A decent second in Ireland and pulled up either side of that run.

There are plenty of positives and negatives to be found with both market leaders. On my revised tissue I have the market leaders as follows:

Rocky Creek 2/1

Ballynagour 5/2

Houblon Des Obeaux 11/2

14/1 Bar

Our good form this winter continues. Yesterday we had a 10/1 winner from my only early bet. Special festival memberships are now available. Call low cost on 0844 871 4023 for full details and get a £25 bonus by subscribing today.