Quick look at the 2.30 from Ascot this afternoon. A pretty competitive race in which a case can be made for the major players.
Le Mercurey won well at Plumpton on his seasonal reappearance as did Thomas Brown four days later. The latter’s performance that day over today’s course caught the eye.
He is not a horse I would oppose lightly but the negative for me is the skinny price currently on offer.
Presently a general 11/8 and as low as 5/4 with Hills. I have him in at 9/4 on my tissue.
Thomas Brown on a winning chasing debut at Ascot last month.
Race of interest today is the 1.45 Cheltenham. Since finishing down the field at the Cheltenham Festival, Vieux Lion Rouge has chalked up three consecutive victories. The latest at Haydock in impressive style. Interested to see if he can continue his progression today. Currently 9/2, which is identical to my tissue.
Vieux Lion Rouge winning at Haydock last month.
Six feature races for us on Channel 4 tomorrow as they go to Cheltenham and Doncaster.
Back on Saturday morning with the regular preview.
Good two days of quality racing begins today at Sandown aided by the cards at Aintree and Wetherby tomorrow.
So far this week we have had two dominant factors: A moderate standard and testing conditions. Both conspire to make true betting value a rare commodity.
Of a morning I alert my select group of clients of value in the markets having priced up every race of interest to a 100% book without prior reference to the bookmakers prices.
This week has been notable in the lack of morning value as quite a few horses under consideration have fallen below my valuation only to ease once the market gained liquidity. For example yesterday with Renoyr at Market Rasen. I had him at 3/1 on my tissue whilst he was an early 9/4 generally. Drifted out to my price and won well.
I do fully appreciate the difficulties faced by the compilers in assessing lower grade horses on heavier ground. Testing conditions do level the playing field. This is a big factor in handicaps. As most cards contain four or five handicaps, it is something you must consider greatly. You can have the best horse in the race, but if carrying a heavy burden the sheer effort of carrying that weight becomes more profound. Over the years I have had many trainers say to me that every pound over 11.7 is like 2lb extra.
When assessing the market I always look to get the favourite beaten. Heavy conditions and burdensome weights can provide an advantage for the more astute backer.
Dancing Shadow makes his second start over fences today at Sandown.
Turning back to today, we have a interesting handicap in the 2.05 at Sandown. The market is undecided about Dancing Shadow. He jumped well on chase debut and can improve. The early 4/1 has dried up, whether the current 3/1 is value is debatable. A stronger market than we have seen so far this week will tell us more.
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Good end to the week with the cards from Ascot and Haydock today with the same venues plus Huntingdon tomorrow.
Silviniaco Conti looks to win The Betfair Chase again tomorrow
Shades of the old ITV7 on Saturday as the cameras go to seven races from Ascot and Haydock. Some of the big stars are in action including double King George VI winner, Silviniaco Conti.
The most intriguing race today contains just three runners as Minella Rocco makes his chasing debut at Haydock. Given his experience in Irish points, the bigger obstacles should not be too daunting. A horse with a big future.
Given the strengths of the opposition and his chase debut, I cannot get him at the current odds-on in my pricing.
Finally a word of praise for Andrew Thornton’s excellent ride on Alder Mairi yesterday. Broke the left-hand stirrup leather at the 4th, but his determination and skill saw him home to a not so comfortable 17 length victory. On this occasion it paid to be a taller jockey who could physically cope with the problem presented to him.
Eight races on Channel 4 tomorrow with coverage centred on the final day of the flat from Doncaster plus two races at both Aintree and Wincanton.
The firmer ground of October saw National Hunt trainers hesitant in their plans. Now that we have softer going, the jumps yards are keen to get their horses on to the track.
Tomorrow sees the return of Arkle winner Simonsig at Aintree with the highly regarded Royal Boy in opposition. Royal Boy coming back after a long absence.
Over at Wincanton Paul Nicholls returns Irving to action. The ‘Fighting Fifth’ winner needs to get back to his early promise.
Irving on his way to victory in the Fighting Fifth hurdle.
First meetings of the new season from both Cheltenham and Aintree plus two good cards on the flat from Doncaster and Newbury.
Today at Cheltenham is a ‘look and learn’ day. Plenty of Irish challengers to add to the many unknown factors at this embryonic stage of the season.
I price up every race of interest to me. The many unknown factors make it a very difficult task.
One that I will be watching closely today is Qewy in the 2.40. The 5 y.o. makes his chasing debut having finished 5th in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival and third in a Grade 2 hurdle at the Aintree National meeting.
With just the three to post, this is a tight betting event with the market just making Rock The World favourite over Qewy. Some go 6/4 the pair.
Qewy isn’t straightforward and there are too many intangibles to get seriously involved at short odds in a race likely to end up a tactical battle.
Qewy winning impressively at Newbury. Ridden by AP McCoy, one of his two winners on the day he announced his retirement.
Back tomorrow morning with the regular Saturday preview.
Six races from Ascot on Channel 4 tomorrow on Champions Day, starting from 12.45 with the Group 2 Long Distance Cup.
This 2 miler attracts some of the best from both the flat and National hunt. Willie Mullins sends over three horses from his County Carlow yard including Cheltenham Festival winner Wicklow Brave.
Leading the market are last years’ winner Forgotten Rules, trained by Dermot Weld and Brian Meehan’s Agent Murphy. The latter taking on this extended distance for the first time.
There are a few running tomorrow who have done us some favours this season, Gm Hopkins and Twilight Son spring readily to mind.
Gm Hopkins edges out Temptress to give us a 12/1 victory in the Royal Hunt Cup
The rest of tomorrow’s fixtures contain a flat meeting at Catterick plus three jumps cards.
It is going to be a long hard evening and morning of study plus collating information from various sources.
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Silviniaco Conti on his way to victory in the 2014 King George on Boxing Day.
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‘Interesting week ahead. Jumps fixtures every day except Tuesday. There is rain forecast earlier in the week which should provide good jumping conditions and then we could have drying ground towards the weekend. The quality on the flat comes from Friday onwards beginning with York. My attention is going towards the jumps, but there are still opportunities for us on the flat as Saturday’s winner proved.
If you are looking to take your betting to a more professional level then seriously look at taking membership now.’
Channel 4 show four races this afternoon from Newmarket.
In the 3.05 Hawksmoor sets the standard after impressing at Goodwood. Showed great resolution and finishing speed to just get up on the line. However, there are a few potential improvers here and the current 2/1 looks skinny.
Time Test powering to victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot
The 3.40 is contested by just four runners, including one of my early season noted horses, Time Test. Started the season with victories at Newbury and Ascot on good ground. Went to York for the Juddmonte and finished a fairly remote fourth in more testing conditions. Expected to return to form today. But I would like to see how good the ground actually is. If he has more ideal conditions, anything over even-money would be fair.
Tomorrow we have six televised races from Newmarket and Market Rasen. The Cambridgeshire is the highlight with 35 runners declared for the 9 furlong ‘cavalry charge’.
Update tomorrow as I look at a feature race from the Saturday cards.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
