Tag Archives: newmarket

Ladies Day

Unlike many of the high profile meetings over recent weeks. Newmarket today will be run on ground more fitting to the time of year.

We have Good to Firm going and some watering has taken place. A warm dry afternoon is forecast.

Two races for us today from Newmarket.

3.45: The market is tight around Bletchley and Nasimi. They are the two I would like to focus upon. Two races only for Bletchley, a big odds win on debut at Nottingham which earned her a trip to Royal Ascot. She showed her inexperience in the Albany before staying on well for a close run second. That form sets the standard.

Nasimi has race just once, a very eye catching debut at Haydock. She did most things wrong, but still powered home for an easy win. Significant improvement can be expected.

On my tissue I make Bletchley 3/1 favourite with Nasimi in at 4/1.

Bletchley (near)
Bletchley (near side) at Royal Ascot

4.15: Usherette is a warm order with a general quote of 4/6 and 8/11. Although a handful of firms want to take her on. How much they will actually lay is questionable.

She is unbeaten in all four starts this year. Impressed on latest start when winning comfortably at Royal Ascot on soft ground. She sets the recent form standard.

When Alice Springs ran on the Friday, the ground had improved but her luck in running definitely had not. My view is that given a clear run she would have won that day.

She was very impressive in her final 2 y.o. race at this course and has plenty of improvement to come. I expect Ryan Moore to keep her out of trouble this time.

I have Usherette in at Evens and Alice Springs at 4/1.

Alice Springs
Alice Springs

A lot is being made of the Royal Ascot form, but the huge difference in conditions at that meeting and what we will get today has to be factored in.

Good start for us at Newmarket yesterday. Four races analysed, two winners at 3/1 and 11/4, plus my reservations regarding The Grey Gatsby were confirmed as the 11/4 favourite never seriously challenged the winner.

Back tomorrow for the final day at the Newmarket July meeting.

Derby double?

Two races for us this afternoon as we go to Newmarket and the Curragh for the Irish Derby. The going on the July course at Newmarket is soft and there are already plenty of non-runners. Light rain is forecast during racing. At the Curragh it is Good to Yielding.

3.55 Newmarket John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3)

Two weeks ago at York we concentrated on Mutakayyef and Muwaary in the Ganton Stakes. They finished first and third respectively.

Muwaary was noted on his return after almost two years off and looks sure to go well.

His temperament could be an issue, as he got himself “excited” during the prelims at York.

So Beloved ties in with the consistent Breton Rock. Little to choose between them as they finished with just under a length apart at Haydock last time.

I marginally prefer Breton Rock, with the soft ground not a problem.

Breton-Rock
Breton Rock

My provisional pricing is:

Breton Rock  7/2

So Beloved    4/1

Muwaary      9/2

8/1 Bar

 

5.20 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)

Six of these run in the Epsom Derby and I would be very surprised if today’s winner doesn’t come from the two that finished 1st and 3rd. Namely Harzand and Idaho.

Unfortunately that is reflected in the market.

There is an argument that on today’s quicker ground on a flatter track Idaho has a realistic chance of turning Epsom form around with Harzand. Added to this the niggling problems that Harzand has encountered in preparation. But he had problems before Epsom and won going away.

 

AP O’Brien has three of the nine declared in this, all connected to the Magnier/Tabor ownership. Along with Idaho we have Shogun who struggled in the Epsom Derby and Claudio Monteverdi. It could prove a tactical battle.

 

If Harzand is the same horse he was at Epsom he will win. But I wouldn’t want to be taking the current odds-on about him.

 

Harzand
Harzand

My tissue:

Harzand 1/1

Idaho  9/4

Red Verdon 10/1

16/1 bar

No Second For Step?

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Second Step
Second Step

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.

Saturday cards

It has been a quiet week for us. Very much a transitional time. Never worth getting seriously involved when the betting value is questionable.

Nine races on Channel 4 tomorrow, four each from Newmarket and Ascot plus a 2 y.o. listed race from Redcar.

Treve winning the 2014 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Treve winning the 2014 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

At this point there looks to be four races tomorrow I am particularly interested in. More on this tomorrow.

Three jumps cards on Sunday and over at Longchamp we have the Arc meeting with Treve defending her double winning crown.

Televised Racing Preview

Channel 4 show four races this afternoon from Newmarket.

In the 3.05 Hawksmoor sets the standard after impressing at Goodwood. Showed great resolution and finishing speed to just get up on the line. However, there are a few potential improvers here and the current 2/1 looks skinny.

Time Test powering to victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot
Time Test powering to victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot

The 3.40 is contested by just four runners, including one of my early season noted horses, Time Test. Started the season with victories at Newbury and Ascot on good ground. Went to York for the Juddmonte and finished a fairly remote fourth in more testing conditions. Expected to return to form today. But I would like to see how good the ground actually is. If he has more ideal conditions, anything over even-money would be fair.

Tomorrow we have six televised races from Newmarket and Market Rasen. The Cambridgeshire is the highlight with 35 runners declared for the 9 furlong ‘cavalry charge’.

Update tomorrow as I look at a feature race from the Saturday cards.