Our focus this afternoon is on two races. Firstly an interesting handicap chase at Doncaster and then the big race of the day, the Hennessy.

1.55 Doncaster betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Tight handicap with the JP McManus owned Jack Steel heading the market at a general 5/2.
The 5yo fulfilled earlier promise when winning on chasing debut at Ayr.
He basically jumped well, although to his right, but hopefully this will improve with experience.
Although taking on stronger opposition, he is expected to continue his progression.
I have him in at 4/1 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)

Whilst many races have seen their name change as sponsors come and go, the Hennessy has had no such changes of identity since the first running in 1957.

My prices are shown in brackets.
Saphir Du Rheu [9/2] impressed on latest start when beating The Young Master[10/1].On today’s terms there should be little between them.

Bobs Worth[8/1] is “thrown in” if retaining a fraction of his old ability, although I’m not sure his hurdle success at Aintree confirms that he does.

Smad Place[7/1] had a wind operation over the summer and impressed me on his reappearance at Kempton where he stayed on strongly to win unchallenged.
Conditions are fine for him and he is expected to run a big race. The 8yo grey has had three career runs at Newbury, winning twice.
Smad Place would be my pick. Currently best priced 8/1.

Two feature races to look at this afternoon, both part of Channel 4’s seven race coverage from Ascot and Haydock. Heavy rain is expected in the morning in the south whilst we have a cold but dry day in the north-west. Our races are both at Haydock, their two richest events of the day. Conditions are expected to be on the testing side at both courses.

1.50 Haydock Betfair Price Rush Hurdle

Briefly touched upon Irving a few weeks ago prior to his seasonal outing.
He had a breathing op during the summer and returned to his best when winning at Wincanton. That performance sets a high standard here.
Very testing ground has to be a slight concern but a repeat of that Wincanton run will make him very difficult to beat. I have him in at 11/10 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Haydock Betfair Chase (Grade 1)

A peak form Silviniaco Conti will be hard to beat. His victory in this race last year was a controlled display in soft ground. Which he then repeated in the King George. The forecast going for this afternoon is similar. Currently quoted in the 5/6 by most firms, he makes no appeal at odds-on.
A case can be made for all of the opposition and I think he may drift in the market. Somewhere around 11/8 to 6/4 wouldn’t surprise me.
Silviniaco Conti is often described by the cricketing phrase: ‘flat track bully’ – an anthropomorphic viewpoint of giving human characteristics to animals, one I find ridiculous. A flat track may suit him because of his running style, nothing to do with being a bully.

As a full-time professional of many years genuine value has always been the dominant factor in my betting. My philosophy is: ‘Everything revolves around value.’
This week has been a prominent example. I price up every race of interest to me (a lot after initial evaluation are not.)
To give three examples: On Thursday Alder Mairi was quoted a best 11/8 in places and a general 5/4. Despite the broken stirrup, won like the long odds-on shot I firmly believed she was.
Yesterday as I explained in this blog, although Minella Rocco is a horse with a promising future; he was never worthy of an 8/13 quote. Despite coming home third in a three horse race, that experience may temper some hype but prove beneficial in the coming months. The other from the day was Winner Massagot who was on a fair mark on his handicap debut. As I told my clients, I rated him as a 4/1 chance and he returned a 7/1 winner.
In evaluating any financial market you must have a line which tells you when to go in and when to stay away. A lot of rubbish is talked by so called racing experts about value, but if you don’t have that dividing line you just become prey to the bookmakers.

Yesterday at Cheltenham we saw two more examples of trainers getting horses to peak winning condition after long lay-offs. This is something that was a rarity in the past, but with the equipment and expertise available to yards it is now a factor any backer has to bring into their assessment.
More Of That returned after just on a year away and A Hare Breath close on two years. The latter having been backed to joint favourite before drifting out to a 6/1 S.P. as the race approached.
The race I am concentrating on this afternoon is the final one shown on Channel 4 from their six race coverage from Wetherby and Cheltenham.
Cheltenham 3.35 Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)
Champagne Express is of interest on handicap and seasonal debut. After two Irish points outings during 2014 he had two runs at the back end of last season.
Form of his novice win at Chepstow is solid and he ran to a similar level when third at Newbury. He looked ‘green’ on his final run; being from the Henderson yard we can expect that he has been well prepared for today’s test. Further progression is expected and the softening ground should not be a problem.
The three Irish based challengers have to be respected and there are lightly raced rivals also capable of improvement.
However I would be disappointed if Champagne Express doesn’t figure.
Looks a 5/1 the field race.

Great three days of action from Cheltenham starts today with the ground reported as good. Plenty making their seasonal debuts, so there is a ‘look and learn’ element to the opening day.
In the 3.25, two horses stand out as being well handicapped are A Hare Breath and Trendsetter.
A Hare Breath has not been seen on the track since December 2013. Having his first run for the up and coming Ben Pauling yard today, who trains just 17 miles from Prestbury Park.
Conversely, Trendsetter has been campaigned on the flat this summer, picking up a victory at Chester at the end of May.
Difficult race to price accurately, but these two are worth keeping onside.

Back tomorrow with a fuller look at one of the feature races.

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Channel 4 take their coverage to Wincanton this afternoon and we will be looking at their first televised race.
The continued rain at the Somerset course will steadily turn the ground to soft. Whilst many trainers have been waiting for ease in the ground, it may have eased too far for some.

2.05 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race)

Tom George has two entered: Forgotten Gold and A Good Skin. It is the latter that attracts my interest. A Good Skin ran a promising race on his reappearance at Cheltenham. He was keen early on in that race and was given an easy time after making a mistake two out.
The 6yo finished last season strongly and showed adaptability with April victories at both Ludlow in soft ground and then on good going at Cheltenham.
He strikes me as a horse with the potential to handle this step up in class and in a highly competitive affair I expect him to run well. Currently around 12/1.

Final day of the flat season today and one of my noted horses runs in the November Handicap. Barwick ran well at Ascot shortly after joining the Ian Williams yard. The noted horses shortlist has had plenty of good winners throughout the flat season, including both the English and Irish Derby winners plus big odds success at Royal Ascot. If Barwick gets his head in front today, he will be the biggest priced winner of them all.
The 2015/16 jumps shortlist started in good style last Saturday with a victory at Ascot. Get your free copy via: http://www.slh.co.uk/

Noted horses is the theme on both the flat and jumps. We have a number from both codes in evidence this afternoon and at Keeneland later.
My new jumps shortlist is now available on request. Just go to my website: www.slh.co.uk
In compiling the list I have focused on trainers able to place their horses adeptly, avoiding the obvious from the top level yards.

We will concentrate on one from the flat list this afternoon at Newmarket as they hold their final meeting of the 2015 season.

Newmarket 3.45 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)

Gm Hopkins continues to run excellent races, his second on latest start at in the valuable Balmoral Handicap at Ascot two weeks ago suggests he is still progressing. The ground today will be a little softer than that Ascot run, but that should not be a significant factor. Runs today a pound lighter than his victory in the Royal Hunt Cup in June.
Has past winning form at Newmarket, his last visit to the track produced a creditable sixth in The Cambridgeshire where he was hampered and could not reach the leaders.

A reproduction of the level of form shown at Ascot last time sets a decent standard.
I have him at 5/2 on my provisional tissue, which is currently the general price on offer with 11/4 in places.

We have a great weekend of racing. Day 2 of the Cheltenham showcase meeting provides three of the ten races on Channel 4 this afternoon. The cameras are also at Doncaster and Newbury from 1.50 through to the Racing Post Trophy at 3.45.
This morning I am going to look at the first televised race from Cheltenham.

2.10 Cheltenham winner.co.uk Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)
Wide open handicap with over half the field making seasonal reappearances. I will concentrate on the top two weighted: Next Sensation and Eastlake.
Following a breathing operation, Next Sensation made his first start of 2015 at the Cheltenham Festival a winning one by taking the Grand Annual. Always prominent he saw out the race strongly with Eastlake four lengths behind in second place. Twelve lengths had split them in the same race the previous year as Next Sensation finished fourth to Eastlake’s sixth.
The pair both then went to Aintree for their final outing of the season and both failed to see out their respective races.
They have taken a hike in the weights with Next Sensation up to 11-12, whilst Eastlake runs off 11-9, the same weight he carried to finish third in the 2013 Paddy Power before going on to win here at the December meeting.
Eastlake is of interest. In my opinion he was given too much to do at the festival and can be expected to go well today.
Very difficult to price but around 7/1 would be fair.