For the first time this week we have a full racing programme. Whilst the ground will be testing at all three meetings, a relatively dry day is expected. Two feature races for us today and I looking beyond the favourite.
3.00 Ascot Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)

Un De Sceaux looked the most likely winner until falling two out on latest start at Leopardstown last month. That was his seasonal debut after festival victories at both Cheltenham and Punchestown.
He has yet to reach his full potential and is given the utmost respect. A record of thirteen wins from fifteen career races makes impressive reading for the Mullins 8yo.
However he makes no appeal at long odds-on.

He comes up against the 2014 Champion Chaser and winner of this race in Sire de Grugy, who looks the value option after rediscovering his form this season. Conditions will be ideal and he has the beating of the other three runners.

I would have the pair together in the market at around the 11/8 mark.

3.15 Haydock Peter Marsh Chase  (Grade 2)

In testing conditions, the 3 miles around a very heavy Haydock will be a test of stamina.
No doubting that Reve De Sivola is the best handicapped horse here.
However to my eye he never really took to chasing and looks a much happier horse over hurdles. A decent round of jumping would make him difficult to beat, but I have my doubts. I wouldn’t want to be taking the current 7/2 with such uncertainty.

There are cases to be made for his rivals. Cloudy Two runs off the same low weight as the favourite having finished third to Seventh Sky in the Tommy Whittle here in December.
Virak is in form and handles conditions. Although exposed in the handicap, he looks sure to go well with the rider claiming 7lb. I have Virak as 11/2 co-fav on my tissue.

Warwick has passed the morning inspection and we will be concentrating on two of their televised races. The going is heavy and a sunny afternoon is forecast.

1.50 Warwick Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race)

Only five line up for the £23,000 prize money, but they all have their merits.

Mullins trained Black Hercules looks sure to be at short odds to follow up his impressive win at Navan on chase debut. Beat the stables other runner in commanding style.A proven stayer who will be difficult to beat. 4/6 on my tissue, which is around the current odds.

Emily Gray ran an excellent second at Doncaster behind Ma Filleule on latest start and is of some interest. Her bare form puts her in with a realistic chance, although her ability to stay this trip is a concern as she has never gone further than 2m 5f before. 6/1 generally and 9/2 on my tissue

3.00 Warwick Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 1)

Born Survivor was an expensive purchase from the Irish PTP field and made quite an impression on his December debut for the Skelton yard over today’s course & distance.
Bought for £220,000 in the April sales by Richard Kelvin-Hughes who said: “This horse will need a bit of time, but he’s a proper horse and one for the future. We were alerted to him a couple of days ago. He’s the sort of horse we like, but unfortunately so does everyone else, which pushes the price up.”
That debut form looks solid and further improvement is expected.

The Irish challenge is spearheaded by the Mullins pair: Open Eagle and Thomas Hobson. Anything travelling from this yard has to be given respect. But one that catches the eye and could be some value is Final Nudge who is progressing well. Has won twice this season in heavy ground before running a good second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. Currently around 8/1, which seems fair.

However Born Survivor is a very decent prospect who I would expect to take plenty of beating. 2/1 on my tissue.

An interesting day of racing away from the high profile tracks.

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Three Grade 1 races at Kempton this afternoon. We are going to study two of them. A dry day is forecast after light rain overnight. The official going is Good to Soft.

My tissue prices for both races are shown in brackets.

2.00 Kempton Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In Memory of Nigel Clark) (formerly the Feltham Novices Chase) (Grade 1)

Southfield Royale is a noted horse who remains progressive and the softer ground conditions could be in his favour. However he does tend to jump left-handed and could be disadvantaged at this track. (5/1)

Native River stayed on well to win on latest start in a Grade 2 at Newbury. Although the comparative ease of this victory could be questioned as the runner-up found little for pressure. (5/2)

Bally Beaufort is a promising stayer who steps up in grade. Won well when we strongly backed him on last appearance at Aintree. Testing ground would put him in the mix. (8/1)

Tea For Two was very impressive on chase debut when winning on heavy ground at Exeter at the start of the month. His regular jockey Lizzie Kelly cannot claim her allowance in this class of race, although that was also the case on latest start. Has to prove he stays this trip, but running style suggests he should. (5/2)

My slight preference would be for Tea For Two but at the current odds on offer there is little value in this race.

3.10 Kempton King George VI Chase (Grade 1)

Vautour was highly impressive when winning at the Cheltenham Festival and is expected to progress from his reappearance outing at Ascot last month. He has to prove he stays this trip. (5/1)

Don Cossack looks top class and I wouldn’t oppose him lightly. Has had two bloodless victories in Ireland this season after finishing the last campaign by winning a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival with Cue Card a distant fourth. (3/1)

Cue Card’s emphatic defeat of Silviniaco Conti at Haydock underlined his excellent form and must go very close. (3/1)

Al Ferof recently moved to Dan Skelton and comprehensively returned to his best on first start for his new stable. Three miles looks to stretch his stamina. (8/1)

Smad Place was a big price winner for us when running away with the Hennessy. Steps up in grade and needs to improve again to get involved here. (8/1)

I have Don Cossack and Cue Card as my joint favourites. At the current prices on offer, Cue Card is the preference.

My best wishes for the new year.

For more details about my work, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/

Two races for us this afternoon, both at Ascot. A mild day forecast with the going declared as good to soft. In the afternoon temperature of 14c and a light southerly wind, the ground will be drying.

2.25 Ascot JLT Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)

Thistlecrack is the horse on the upgrade and heads the market with the majority of layers.
It is difficult to gauge the merit of his latest win at Newbury with both Cole Harden and Whisper running poor races.

Saphir Du Rheu reverts to hurdles after running in the Hennessy. Finished a distant fifth and weakened near the end. A drop of 2f from that Newbury run today.
He ties in closely with Reve De Sivola, who has won the last three runnings of this event.

Reve De Sivola has had the same preparation as last year, having run in France before coming here.
There is every chance he retains most of his ability and at the current 9/2 he would make some appeal. The softer the ground the better.

3.00 Ascot Sodexo Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

Worth trying to spot some value in this wide open handicap.
Bottom weight Gullinbursti is on a fair mark. Returns after a long absence. Has gone well fresh in the past
Currently 14/1 generally and 16/1 in places. Worth consideration.

My best wishes for Christmas and the new year

Further light rain forecast at Cheltenham this morning and dry, with a strong south-westerly breeze this afternoon. One race to look at from the Gloucstershire course.

1.50 Cheltenham Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3)

Plenty of the runners tie-in on form and are fairly exposed, six of them ran in the Paddy Power in mid-November.

Buywise is one of these and if he can put in a clean round of jumping he can come out top of that half-dozen.

Tenor Nivernais impressed when winning at Ascot on his only start so far this season. Drew clear from his rivals to win by a long margin on soft ground. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance.
He has proved to be inconsistent in the past but with the Venetia Williams stable in fine form, he has to be seriously considered.

Champagne West returns after ten months out from an injury and is of interest, being unexposed over fences. Twice a winner at this track last season when partnered by Richard Johnson. However it is slightly disconcerting that Johnson has chosen to ride stablemate Village Vic this afternoon.

The current 8/1 the field indicates how wide open this race is. I am inclined to take a different approach to many and look outside of the Paddy Power form.

Tenor Nivanais[11/1] and Champagne West[10/1] are two that I would keep onside.

Engaging day of racing ahead. Channel 4 have eight races from Sandown and Aintree plus on the ‘undercard’ we have fixtures from Chepstow and Wetherby. The dominant factor today will be the going. The three English venues report their ground in varying degrees of soft, whilst the Welsh track will be unsurprisingly heavy; given its close proximity to the River Wye and the extreme rainfall this week.
As I explained in yesterday’s blog, extreme weights in testing conditions can be the undoing of even the most well touted horses. The adage that in testing conditions every 1lb over 11.7 seems like 2lb was amplified yesterday by the defeats, for example, of the long odds-on Never Says Never (11.9) along with Proofreader (11.9) and De Faoithesdream (12.3). It is a factor to bear in mind today when getting involved.
Today we look at two feature races, both from Aintree.

1.40 Aintree Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

3m 1f race run over the Grand National course in which Saint Are looks sure to go well.
Had a ‘prep’ in cross-country race at Cheltenham, where he ran out of steam eight from home and then stayed on at the same pace. 5 furlongs shorter and 5 lbs lighter at 11.2 today.
Second in the 2015 National, he has an excellent record at the track. Prior to that he had won convincingly at Catterick, one of his rare visits away from the top grade courses.
Modification to the fences at Aintree ensures these races are not the lottery they once were.
As you would expect, a very open race, but odds of 8/1 or more make some appeal.

3.20 Aintree Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Another contest on the Grand National course, this time over 2m 5f.
Double Ross looks to have returned to near his best, having run an excellent 4th in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham.
Today will be the 9y.o.’s 33rd career race for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies having run once in Ireland before arriving at the Gloucester yard, where he has won over £200,000 in prize money.
Has creditable course experience having finished fifth in last year’s Topham.
Fairly handicapped with Ryan Hatch claiming 3lb and expected to figure.
The popular gutsy performer is market leader at around 5/1, which is how I see it.