After a lot of hard work on today’s cards, there is not a lot of value to be had.
At Aintree the three handicaps are incredibly difficult to unravel and I am not going to get sucked in to bookmakers benefit races.
The 3.25 is there for Vautour on the Cheltenham run. This leaves the 2.50 where I go 7/4 Un Temps Pour Tout and 3/1 Blaklion, which leaves minimal value against the books.
Finally the 2.40 Newcastle. Mumgos Debut is dropped in class today in an attempt to get the 8 y.o. into the winners enclosure for the first time in seventeen attempts. 2/1 my tissue.
The modern day Grand National is very different to the race that was run back in the day.
Modification to the fences and increased prize money have made it a wide open handicap, with the vast majority of runners having some sort of chance.
A brief look at some of the major contenders. I will be analysing the race in greater detail Friday/Saturday when we have a clearer picture.
Last year’s winner Many Clouds is favourite at around 8/1.
He appeared to delight everyone with his latest success at Kelso, where he travelled and jumped well and was visually impressive. However the form of that Kelso race is suspect.
This year’s renewal looks stronger than the 2015 race and at the current odds Many Clouds is of no value.
Silviniaco Conti returned to form at Ascot when blinkered for the first time following the previously worn cheek-pieces. A high class horse that is handicapped to win, it is his possible stamina limitations that concern me.
Silviniaco Conti
The Last Samuri put in a career best run when winning at Doncaster on latest start and could improve again. He looks to have a good mix of speed and stamina and jumps well.
At the 10/1 on offer I would keep him onside.
Holywell and Cause Of Causes were in action at Cheltenham, both horses returning to something near their best.
Cause Of Causes is a thorough stayer who was never nearer than at the finish in last year’s National. At the time of writing he is not sure to get a run as he needs a few above him in the handicap to drop out. If he does take part and his jockey can keep him closer to the leaders he will be staying on at the finish. Around 20/1 is fair.
Holywell was beaten by a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham and if staying the National trip must go well.
Bishops Road comes from the in-form Kerry Lee stable. He stayed on strongly to win the National trial at Haydock. Soft ground would bring him into the reckoning. Currently best priced 25/1.
Bishops Road
Back tomorrow morning for a look at the Friday card.
Back to Newbury today for two more races. The going is again good to soft and a warm, sunny day is forecast.
2.35 Newbury
Fingal Bay figures on a lenient handicap mark if he can produce his best. He was a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2014 over hurdles. His participation at this year’s festival ended at half-way after a jumping error and being hampered. He has been disappointing and cheek-pieces plus a tongue-tie are fitted to-day to try and get his chasing career going.
Tour Des Champs carries a penalty for winning unchallenged at Plumpton, though Ryan Hatch’s allowance reduces that by 3lb.
Harry’s Farewell isn’t an easy ride but looks slightly overpriced and should figure.
My tissue:
Fingal Bay 4/1
Tour Des Champs 4/1
Harry’s Farewell 5/1*
Benvolio 7/1
10/1 bar
*Update: Now NR
Fingal Bay
3.05 Newbury
Thomas Crapper has been a disappointment this season, but returned to form on latest start. A reproduction of that form gives him every chance and first time cheek-pieces may help concentrate his mind.
Difficult to price with a couple of unknowns.
On my provisional tissue I make Thomas Crapper a 3/1 chance and go 5/1 bar.
Thomas Crapper
A brief reminder regarding the Aintree Special membership.
From just £20 (£22.50 to include bets by text), you will get my work from today right through to the Sunday after the Grand National.
Highlights from a very profitable Aintree last year were:
Rajdhani Express WON 10/1 Saphir Du Rheu WON 7/4 Whisper WON 7.6
All were straight win bets and as you can see, we cater for the traditional and exchange backers.
Newbury start a good two day meeting and there are two races I want to touch on this afternoon.
In the 3.00, I was impressed by Roycano’s performance when winning at Fakenham last time out. This was the 6 y.o.’s first victory in six starts since his hurdling debut in 2013. Whether he can progress and defy the weight rise remains to be seen. The books go 9/4 favourite, I am 3/1 on my tissue.
In the following race at 3.35, bottom weighed Potter’s Cross had every chance when falling five out on latest start. Of his rivals, I see Viva Steve as the main danger. I rate both as 3/1 chances.
Haydock stage a seven race card this afternoon comprising of six wide open handicaps and a bumper. I am going to look at two races, both have that ‘Mission Impossible’ feel about them.
2.00 Haydock Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
Raktiman is a 9yo that is still on the upgrade. Although raised 9lb for his impressive ten length win at Catterick in early February, he is still expected to figure.
The Cobbler Swayne is also of interest, having done well to win after being hampered on latest start at Ayr just over a fortnight ago.
The Cobbler Swayne
I have the pair as 13/2 joint favourites on my provisional tissue. As the current prices for both are either on or below my assessment, there is no value at present.
3.10 Haydock Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
No Duffer enjoys a 7lb weight pull with Leo Luna who beat him on latest start at Warwick when the latter was weighted 1lb lower. He can turn that form around this afternoon.
Has a tendency to jump right-handed, but hopefully Paddy Brennan can get him to the stand side rail in the straight and this shouldn’t cause too much of a problem.
No Duffer
10/1 favourite on my tissue, which only one firm currently matches.
The day has a bookmaker friendly look to it, so not a day for serious involvement.
Just the one race for us today. We go to Kempton where the going is good and a dry day forecast.
3.50 Kempton Park Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2)
Orbasa is a very interesting runner. Finished alone when winning on only start since coming from France to become part of the Nichols yard.
Impressed with his jumping on that British debut run at Fontwell. After the race assistant trainer Tom Jonason said: “He jumped brilliantly and coming into the race we knew that he would come on a lot and he looked very well in the paddock, so hopefully it’s onwards and upwards.”
The original plan was to send him to Cheltenham, but connections have decided to target the £25,000 first prize this afternoon.
All his three starts this season have been in softer ground than he will get today. Has winning form on good ground in France.
Guesswork involved, but I can make a case for him being well handicapped despite going up 5lb. 4/1 my provisional tissue, current prices range from 3/1 to 9/2.
Orbasa outjumps Blue Bear on his way to victory
We enjoyed a rewarding Cheltenham with profits every day. The meeting started for us with a 4/1 winner and closed with an each way place at 25/1. There was plenty more to enjoy in-between. My thanks again to everyone who helped raise money to support the stable staff.
Plenty of differing opinions and theories as we go in to a very tight looking Gold Cup this afternoon.
For me Cue Card is the value. The Tizzard yard have maintained a high level of consistency all season and I expect Cue Card to be spot on. Based on the King George run, I have Cue Card and Don Cossack on level pegging. There is the conjecture that if the latter had stood up he would have won.
Cue Card
The positive with Don Cossack is his staying strength, which is so important when tackling the uphill finish at Cheltenham. The negative is the need to niggle him along so he can get into a position to use that strength.
Both Donn and our stats man favour Don Cossack. As Donn says in the charity preview:
‘However, it may be that Don Cossack will shade it. He probably would have won the King George had he not fallen at the second last fence, and that is the strongest piece of form around. It is a cracking race, though. It is the most fascinating race of the week, it is the most intriguing Gold Cup that we have seen in some time.’
Last year’s runner up Djakadam demands a lot of respect. Needs to improve and has the scope to do so. Don Poli has a bit more to find to be in contention.
My prices for the front three are:
Don Cossack
Cue Card 5/2
Don Cossack 5/2
Djakadam 7/2
Last year Coneygree was the stand out value in the race. It is a lot tighter this year.
The Cheltenham preview and membership has proved a valuable asset with quite a few very good winners. For example: Minella Rocco (WON 8/1) and Diamond King (WON 12/1). Myself and Donn have also provided some nice forecasts as we respectively analysed the home and Irish challengers including an £208 Exacta.
Hope you enjoy another fantastic day of racing and I will be back tomorrow to look at a feature race or two.
The unrelenting advertising buzz and speculation preceding the Cheltenham Festival will soon be turned into reality with the drop of the starters flag on Tuesday. Don’t get me wrong, it is a superb meeting; it’s just getting too much like Christmas -the hype begins far too early.
But that aside; I would also like you to part with some money for the festival by supporting a worthwhile racing charity.
For many years I have raised donations for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742). They build affordable homes for stable staff and their families in an area where house prices are far too high for anyone on a low to average wage to reasonably afford. This quote explains their unenviable position:
‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
Myself, Donn McClean, John Hunt and Micky Hammond have all contributed to producing a Cheltenham preview. Just £10 and the whole amount goes to the trust.
Online orders via:
Festival preview only: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/2016-cheltenham-festival-preview
Preview & Membership: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/chel-spec-2016
Monbeg River
One race to look at this afternoon is a tight little handicap confined to horses 5yo and older.
2.20 Ayr Ortus Homes Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)
The ground at Ayr will be soft towards heavy with rain forecast in the morning and then drying conditions in the afternoon.
Monbeg River is a horse that was noted earlier in the season having won and finished second over to-days C&D. Both races in the space of five days in late October. Returning from a break, I expect him to continue his progression.
He takes on a couple of inform rivals in Ubaltique who won at Catterick recently and Nautical Twilight who still had every chance when falling at Newcastle just two weeks ago.
However the main danger could be the top weighted Indian Voyage, if he returns to form after a poor run at Wetherby.
My overnight tissue:
Monbeg River 5/2
Indian Voyage 4/1
Ubaltique 4/1
Nautical Twilight 5/1
10/1 bar.
Over the four days of the festival, you can keep in touch with me via Twitter and Facebook. But please give a thought to contributing to the good work of the housing trust. Bob Geldof moment over, best of luck with your bets.
Three meetings for us today and a quick look at one race from Ayr this afternoon.
Will be finalising the Cheltenham preview this weekend. If you want to order a copy and help a very worthwhile racing charity, all the details are on my website: www.slh.co.uk.
John Hunt has sent in a great piece which is well worth a read.
Pont Alexandre and Roi Des Francs jump together. Get John Hunt’s full Cheltenham thoughts by ordering the preview today.
In the Ayr 2.30, I noted Jumbo John when finishing third at Punchestown last month. I have him at 4/1 on my tissue, which is about the price he is with the books.
Back tomorrow with a look at one of the feature races.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
