Finger gamble value?

The two day Cheltenham Showcase meeting starts today. The ground has been watered over the last nine weeks of relatively dry weather to produce good going. With this meeting and Aintree on Sunday, the main 2016/17 jumps season is now taking centre stage.

Cheltenham 3.55 Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2)

Tiger Roll showed improved form over fences when winning the Grade A Munster National on latest start earlier this month. A repeat of that effort would make it very difficult task for his five rivals.

His trainer Gordon Elliott reported: “We were thrilled with the way he won the Munster National. He surprised me there but as a Triumph Hurdle winner he’s always had ability. The ground will suit and he’s been in good form since Limerick.”

I have him in at 5/4 and go 8/1 bar.

Tiger Roll
Tiger Roll

Cheltenham 5.05 Ryman Stationery Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Fingerontheswitch is potentially thrown-in on the best of his hurdles form.

On the positive side conditions will suit and a very experienced jockey is booked.

However the negatives are that his jumping wasn’t entirely fluent at Cartmel on latest start and he didn’t appear to find much for pressure.

Although there has been support for him in the market this morning I would be cautious.

Cheltenham racecourse
Cheltenham racecourse

The next three days will be highly informative. We have a strong Irish contingent and many of the home horses making seasonal debuts, both important unknown factors. The bookmaker pricing will be defensive, making the assessment of true value more difficult. Statistically October is something of a bookmakers benefit month. I always take the long term disciplined approach and with a good profit already this month, I see no reason to get to seriously involved when I cannot see a clear advantage. You must wait for the correct opportunities and then take advantage of them.


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