Tag Archives: Kempton

Back to earth

March 17, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

After the highs of a fabulous four days at Cheltenham it’s back to earth today with three jumps cards from Kempton, Fontwell and Uttoxeter.

One race from Kempton for us this morning.

2m Matchbook VIP Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)

A case can be made for all five runners.

Free Stone Hill has dropped to handicap mark that he has the ability to win off. However he finds little in a finish and isn’t to be trusted.

Deauville Dancer returns from a winter break and may benefit from this race.

Copain De Classe was left with a solo after his only rival fell at only the second fence on his latest start. He has potential, but is at short odds on form achieved. Currently on offer at 5/4.

Both Kayf Blanco and Vocaliser are running well.

My private tissue:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco 3/1

Vocaliser 3/1

Deauville 6/1

Free Stone Hill 12/1

2018 Cheltenham Festival

My thanks to everyone who donated and to the preview contributors: Donn McClean, Richard Hoiles, John Hunt and Paul O’Hara.

The two commentators both enjoyed success from their selective advices. Richard with 13/2 winner Mr Whitaker and John emphatically stated that the ‘best bet of the entire meeting has to be Presenting Percy.’ Another great ride from Davy Russell providing a 5/2 winner.

Plus there was plenty for readers from the other contributors.

Lots of great performances with many thrilling finishes and the dominant displays from the likes of Samcro, Altior and Laurina. For me the highlight of the week was the Gold Cup and the relentless jumping performance of Native River. However I have doubts whether the Gold Cup is recently of the same standard of past era’s.

All donations go to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust who build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping keep vital staff in racing.

horse racing

Dee target

February 24, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Three jump meetings on what will be a particularly cold Saturday afternoon. We are going to briefly look at three races from Kempton. They report their going as Good to Soft, but the covers set down on Thursday are still to come off. I will be getting a more accurate going report direct from one of my senior contacts later this morning. Whilst Kempton is a free draining track the covers can deaden the ground and that will be an important point when I get my own report.

Today’s Kempton card is one of the last meetings with trials for the Cheltenham Festival now just over a fortnight away.

1.50 2m4½f Betdaq Now 2% Commission Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Cyrname deserves to be at short odds. I have him in at 4/7 on my private tissue.

Excellent jumper and expected to be a player at the Spring festivals.

2.25 2m (Winter) Betdaq #ChangingForTheBettor Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo)

Redicean is at short odds after impressing in his two successes.

However his jumping needs to improve, the bare form of his wins isn’t solid.

I would want odds against before contemplating involvement. Currently around 4/5 in the early markets.

3.35 3m Betdaq Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Wide open affair in which Master Dee is expected to go well.

This has been the target and conditions will suit.

Presently on offer at 7/1 with some 15/2 in places.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

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horse racing

Hot Lanzarote

January 13, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Just back from my annual break refreshed and ready to make 2018 another year of good profits from my selective value driven betting.

Three turf meetings this afternoon, all reporting soft ground.

Today we are looking at a race apiece from Kempton and Warwick. Both higher quality races are covered on ITV4. We start with the Lanzarote at Kempton.

2.40 2m5f (Winter) 32Red Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Highly competitive race with the books unable to make any discernible difference between the front three in the market. All are going around 5/1 the field.

Coeur Blimey steps back up in trip and is worth keeping on side at double figure odds. After impressing at Wincanton on his penultimate start, he disappointed at Ascot, where his jumping wasn’t fluent. He had high class bumper form and the Wincanton win confirmed that he retains that level of ability. Today’s conditions will suit and a big run is expected.

Today’s jockey is Lucy Gardener, who is his regular rider and claims what could be a valuable 3lb in this tight race.

16 runners currently, so four places on offer to each way backers.

3.00 2m5f (Inner) Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Count Meribel looked sure to win at the final hurdle, before being outstayed by Kilbricken Storm on latest start at Cheltenham.

Mr Whipped still looked ‘green’ when winning at Newbury. That run makes him the form choice, and with further improvement anticipated he will be hard to beat.

I provisionally price the six runners as follows:

Mr Whipped 7/4

Count Meribel 9/4

Chooseyourweapon 8/1

Knight In Dubai 10/1

Paisley Park 10/1

Cave Top 16/1

Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.

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horse racing

Back from the USA

March 18, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Just the one race for us today at Kempton. The going is Good.

2.05 Kempton

Clic Work is progressive as shown by his two victories at Doncaster and Taunton. Not raced since that Taunton win at the end of January. However, he needs to sharpen up his jumping.

Hollybush Henry isn’t an easy ride though is on a fair mark.

Days Of Heaven is difficult to evaluate with last 2 starts being in the USA. He does have winning form at this course from around this time last year over 2m 4.5f.

I go:

Clic Work 7/4

Hollybush Henry 3/1

Days Of Heaven 4/1

Theatre Flame 11/2

Midtech Valentine 20/1

Clic Work is currently around 5/4 with the books, which looks on the skinny side.

Rock the WorldLooking back to the two races analysed yesterday on this blog. I wanted to be against Native River, who I felt needed to improve and was far too short in the market. I put him in at 10/1 and he finished a creditable third at 7/2.

In the Grand Annual I narrowed it down to three from the twenty four runners. The three all made the frame with Rock The World running out the 10/1 winner.

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Our next special membership will be for the Grand National week. More details nearer the time on my website.

horse racing

Theatre repeat?

February 25, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Four graded races at Kempton where our concentration lies today. There are plenty of ‘ifs and buts’ to complicate the pricing of certain races. The going is Good and we are looking at two races:

Kempton 3.35 3m BetBright Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Wide open handicap in which thirteen declared contest for the near on £57,000 first prize.

Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year. He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight.

Currently quoted from 9/1 to a best priced 11/1 which looks about right range.

Kempton 4.10 2m4f110y Watch Live Racing On betbright.com Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.

Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.

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horse racing

Eyes on Kempton

February 10, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Two jumps meetings for us this afternoon and a significant difference in going conditions between the two. At Bangor it is Heavy whilst at Kempton we have Good to Soft going. Two races for us to look at from the southern track.

2.10 Kempton

My initial thought was to try and oppose market leader Get On The Yager.

However half the field look to have little chance, and the four that are left will need to show marked improvement to beat an in form favourite.

I have provisionally priced as follows:

Get On The Yager 5/4

Peak To Peak 5/1

Agamemmon 5/1

Ballymountain Boy 6/1

Silent Steps 12/1

2.40 Kempton

Little to choose between the form horses.

Savoy Court is worth keeping a close eye on.

He disappointed on hurdles debut when a short priced favourite.

His bumper win last season at Ffos Las was decent form. He defeated Tommy Rapper who ran a creditable third yesterday in a race where we again successfully laid the odds-on favourite.

Tricky race to price up accurately, I would provisionally go 3/1 the field.

Denman and Kauto Star locked together. Denman Chase tomorrow at Newbury.

Plenty for us to go at tomorrow with the two Grade 2 races at Newbury the highlight.

horse racing

Lanzarote outsiders

January 14, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

After the extremes of yesterday we have a full complement of fixtures today. Concentrating on two races from Kempton this afternoon. The going is Good to Soft and a cloudy dry day is forecast.

2.40 32Red Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)

The race is named after the 1974 Champion Hurdle winner.

Wide open handicap with a couple of unknown quantities making it difficult to price with confidence.

Will O’the West and Templeross are worth considering at big odds. Currently priced at around 16/1 and bigger.

Both disappointed on latest starts after showing up well previously.

I have received favourable reports regarding both.

3.15 32Red.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Kruzhlinin won over hurdles on latest start and is still on a workable mark returning to fences. He attempts to follow up last year’s win in this race.

Abricot De L’Oasis also returns to chasing from hurdles on a fair mark, though is not proven at the trip.

No Duffer and Sandy Beach are in form but need to progress.

My tissue:

Kruzhlinin 4/1

Sandy Beach 5/1

Abricot De L’Oasis 6/1

No Duffer 7/1

Our Kaempfer 8/1

10/1 bar

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horse racing, Uncategorized

Arkle turnaround?

February 12, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Kempton and Wetherby for us this afternoon. The going is reported as Soft and Heavy respectively, with a dry day at both courses.

Two races this afternoon to quickly look at.

We start with the Wetherby 2.25. A trappy race in which only the short-priced favourite Bawden Rocks, has any recent winning form. The one that looks overpriced is Formidableopponent, who could stay on in these testing conditions. Currently 8/1 best.

The Kempton 3.15 is an intriguing four runner affair. I price them as follows:

Josses Hill 6/4

Gods Own 13/8

Aso 5/1

Kings Lad 16/1

In last year’s Arkle Gods Own and Josses Hill finished second and third respectively. Josses Hill has a weight pull today. For me, it totally depends on which one is ‘right’ today. They both have a bit to prove.

Back tomorrow with the Satuday analysis. The feature meeting is from Newbury. But we have a forecast of heavy and prolonged rain prior to racing, which will be a significant factor.

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horse racing, Uncategorized

Kempton: Betbright Chase preview Saturday 21st February

February 19, 2015 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Tap Night has been a disappointing horse but has become well handicapped. Stayed on when the race was over at Cheltenham on latest start. Steps up to 3 miles and is fitted with first time cheek-pieces. Is of interest at 10/1 generally. (11/1 with the sponsors)

Fox Appeal is running consistently well and still figures on a fair mark in the context of this race. The step back up in distance may suit and at 6/1 I would want to keep him “onside”.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service