Just the one race for us today at Kempton. The going is Good.
2.05 Kempton
Clic Work is progressive as shown by his two victories at Doncaster and Taunton. Not raced since that Taunton win at the end of January. However, he needs to sharpen up his jumping.
Hollybush Henry isn’t an easy ride though is on a fair mark.
Days Of Heaven is difficult to evaluate with last 2 starts being in the USA. He does have winning form at this course from around this time last year over 2m 4.5f.
I go:
Clic Work 7/4
Hollybush Henry 3/1
Days Of Heaven 4/1
Theatre Flame 11/2
Midtech Valentine 20/1
Clic Work is currently around 5/4 with the books, which looks on the skinny side.
Days Of Heaven
Rock the WorldLooking back to the two races analysed yesterday on this blog. I wanted to be against Native River, who I felt needed to improve and was far too short in the market. I put him in at 10/1 and he finished a creditable third at 7/2.
In the Grand Annual I narrowed it down to three from the twenty four runners. The three all made the frame with Rock The World running out the 10/1 winner.
Rock the World
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We stay at Sandown for two more races today. The going remains on the good side to soft.
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2.25 Sandown
Wide open handicap, where Shanroe Santos could be a vulnerable favourite.
His jumping was less than fluent at Warwick and although that may improve, the current 11/4 is on the short side.
My provisional tissue:
Shanroe Santos 9/2
Upswing 9/2
Willoughby Hedge 9/2
Masters Hill 11/2
Fourth Act 11/2
14/1 bar
Shanroe Santos
4.45 Sandown
Another trappy handicap to finish the card.
The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition.
Twenty Eight Guns continues to progress and Dance Floor King is running well.
Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.
I price as follows:
Twenty Eight Guns 7/2
Dance Floor 7/2
Alcala 4/1
Gores Island 6/1
Morning Reggie 8/1
Aerlite Supreme 10/1
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As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
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Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about. I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.
We stay at Newbury for another two races this afternoon. The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers.
I am waiting on a course report from a senior contact, so at present all my prices are provisional. It will be be pretty testing out there and the bookmakers are being pretty defensive in their early pricing.
1.30 Newbury
Justification improved on latest start and has taken a 9lb hike in the ratings.
Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form.
Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.
Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.
Hello George 5/1
Western Climate 11/2
Justification 11/2
Spice Fair 7/1
Willows Saviour 7/1
Western Climate (near)
3.50 Newbury
Just the five declared for this tight 2m 0.5f handicap hurdle
Bol D’air won unchallenged at Plumpton and takes on stronger opposition here.
Vocaliser ran well on latest start but tends to hang and isn’t an easy ride.
Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern.
I have the five runners in at:
Bol D’air 2/1
Vocaliser 11/4
Get Rhythm 11/2
Knightly Pleasure 11/2
Three Colours Red 8/1
2017 Cheltenham Festival
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Four graded races at Kempton where our concentration lies today. There are plenty of ‘ifs and buts’ to complicate the pricing of certain races. The going is Good and we are looking at two races:
Kempton 3.35 3mBetBright Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Wide open handicap in which thirteen declared contest for the near on £57,000 first prize.
Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year. He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight.
Currently quoted from 9/1 to a best priced 11/1 which looks about right range.
Theatre Guide (right)
Kempton 4.10 2m4f110y Watch Live Racing On betbright.com Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.
Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.
Full Shift2017 Cheltenham Festival
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Three really good meetings today after a fairly uninspiring week of racing. Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton all report varying degrees of soft ground. Two races from Ascot to look at:
Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut. Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday.
Tintern Theatre looks overpriced at the current 14/1 on general offer and 16/1 in places.
Five of the other seven contenders are capable of improvement.
Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future.
The improving Go Conquer is just preferred. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap.
Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
Tenor Nivernais ran well over c/d three starts ago. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet.
On my private tissue I price them:
Go Conquer 7/2
Tenor Nivernais 9/2
Chef D’ Oeuvre 9/2
Tenor Nivernais
For many years I have raised funds for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families, helping to keep valuable staff in racing.
This year’s fundraiser will again be centred around the Cheltenham Festival. For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March. Your full £25 will go directly to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust.
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Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. The going at both is soft. Plus we have Uttoxeter who are subject to a third inspection. If they do go ahead it will be attritional.
Two races for us to consider at Newbury.
Newbury 1.15 Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively At Betfair Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)
High Bridge sets a high standard. Two from two this season including over C & D. Expected to win this before going to Cheltenham.
Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value.
My tissue:
High Bridge 11/10
Multiculture 9/2
Azzerti 11/2
Dead Right 11/2
High Bridge
Newbury 3.35 Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3)
2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved.
I’m 6/1 the field on my tissue whilst the layers go as short as 7/2.
Ballyandy
Little in the way of value at present. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever. But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it.
Should provide a few pointers for the festival this afternoon.
The seven race card from Sandown is our focus today. A mixed going report with the ground reported as Soft (Heavy in places) on the chase course and Heavy (Soft on back straight) for the hurdlers. Fascinating day and we are looking at the opening two races.
Just the seven declared but this is a wide open handicap. My preferred two are Bright New Dawn and Grey Gold.
Bright New Dawn was noted when finishing behind Bold Henry over C&D last month.
That was his first start for current stable who paid £56,000 for him at Goff’s September sales last year. Venetia Williams has saddled the winner of this race for the past two years.
The softer the ground the better for the veteran 12y.o. Grey Gold, who looks sure to figure at the finish.
I go 4/1 the field on my private tissue.
Bright New Dawn
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What a great day of racing we have ahead of us and there will be plenty to go at.
The freezing conditions of the week have given way to widespread rain as the temperature inches slightly upwards. With it has brought a disparity of going across the three jump meetings this afternoon. As we head northwards, Cheltenham is now Soft, Uttoxeter Heavy on the chase curse and Soft /Heavy for the hurdlers and Doncaster Good which could ease as the forecast rain penetrates.
We are going to quickly look at two races from Cheltenham.
Smad Place is expected to give Thistlecrack a race.
I go:
Thistlecrack 8/11
Smad Place 5/1
Smad Place
Apologies for the brevity but it is a very busy day of racing with nine races at Cheltenham alone. There is a lot to finalise before I brief my select group of clients at 11.45.
Our good week continued yesterday with another successful lay of a short priced favourite making it three profitable bets from the four advised. For more details about my work, go to: www.slh.co.uk
With Ascot and Taunton both falling prey to the cold weather we are left with one turf meeting today at Haydock. It is a classy card containing four Group 2 races. We are going to look at one of them plus a competitive handicap.
Clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright reported: “Temperatures were -1C and we wouldn’t have wanted any more frost. We’ve been dry since Wednesday, the sun is out and it’s set to a bright, dry day. The ground is soft and it’s not going to be as testing as your traditional Haydock in January.”
3.15 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2)
A reasonably case can be made for 10 of the 14 runners.
Difficult to price with the form of ex French trained Alary difficult to evaluate in the context of today’s race.
Definitly Red put up his best performance when winning at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
However that form line also puts Bristol De Mai, Otago Trail and Bishops Road in the mix.
I’m 11/2 the field on my provisional tissue.
Bishops Road can go well at double figure odds.
Bristol De Mai
3.50 Racing UK Club Day Today Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)
Trip could be too short for the returning Wuff who has been out for a year.
Back By Midnight needs to sharpen up his jumping.
Ubaltique is handicapped to go close, but finds little for pressure.
Pistol Park is improving but is priced accordingly.
Imjoeking is my e/w preference at 7/1+. His latest run is solid form and conditions are fine.
Imjoeking
The major festival meetings in Britain and Ireland are getting closer. Special terms now available for the rest of the jumps campaign and longer term. For details go to: www.slh.co.uk
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
