The ITV cameras head to a picturesque Kelso for four races this afternoon. We are looking at the first of their live races. The going is heavy and some light rain is expected during the later races. Temperatures are a mild 11 to 12 degrees Celsius.
Kelso
Next week sees the start of the Aintree Festival meeting. More news after we look at the 1.50.
1.502m7½f Sue And Harvey Smith Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)
A very tight four runner handicap in which the morning layers marginally make Teddy Tee the favourite.
ACDC has Liam Quinlan, the amateur jockey on board who rode him to victory three starts ago at this course. Fairly handicapped with suitable conditions, although the 8 y.o. has never been a straightforward ride.
Teddy Tee continues to run well, but is vulnerable at the finish.
Hills Of Dubai and Just Georgie tie in closely, but Hills Of Dubai isn’t proven at this trip.
I have Just Georgie as my marginal favourite in a race sponsored by his trainer.
Just Georgie 5/2
Teddy Tee 3/1
Hills Of Dubai 3/1
ACDC 7/2
ACDC
Aintree Special
Last weekend we had two bets only, both winners.
Our biggest bet of the week was on Saturday. Our bet soundly beat the odds-on favourite.
On Sunday we again defied popular opinion with a 9/4 winner who drew well clear of the 2/5 favourite.
This rounded off a profitable week and another profitable month.
The bad weather has meant there has been just the one meeting so far this week. Yesterday at Fontwell we had one bet which provided us with a very rewarding 13/2 winner. Plus I analysed three other races for members own betting purposes, this supplied three further winners.
Our Aintree special membership starts today. You get all my bets and analysis from just £20 for membership through to Sunday 15th April.
Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.
We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.
2.402m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)
Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.
Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.
Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.
Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.
He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.
I provisionally price the race as follows:
Oistrakh Le Noir 15/8
Mister Chow 6/1
Nigh or Never 7/1
Falcon Sun 7/1
Ulysses 7/1
14/1 bar
Newbury
Race pricing and value
As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.
A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.
My prices were:
Copain De Classe 5/2
Kayf Blanco 3/1
Vocaliser 3/1
Deauville 6/1
Free Stone Hill 12/1
The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.
Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.
The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.
For more details about my work and your membership options, please go to: www.slh.co.uk
Three jump meetings on what will be a particularly cold Saturday afternoon. We are going to briefly look at three races from Kempton. They report their going as Good to Soft, but the covers set down on Thursday are still to come off. I will be getting a more accurate going report direct from one of my senior contacts later this morning. Whilst Kempton is a free draining track the covers can deaden the ground and that will be an important point when I get my own report.
Today’s Kempton card is one of the last meetings with trials for the Cheltenham Festival now just over a fortnight away.
Wide open affair in which Master Dee is expected to go well.
This has been the target and conditions will suit.
Presently on offer at 7/1 with some 15/2 in places.
Master Dee
2018 Cheltenham Festival
I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:
– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean. Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.
– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.
– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.
During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.
The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.
As seems to be the case for quite a while, the weather forecast has to be studied almost as carefully as the form. Today the block capitals HEAVY loom large in the going reports for all three jump meetings. We are set for a dry day with temperatures nudging towards double figures in the south. Therefore we are likely to see the ground drying as the afternoon progresses. It will be a factor.
We are concentrating on the Ascot card today starting with a stamina test.
Early morning favourite Gold Present is now a non-runner leaving six to post.
Holly Bush Henry and Another Venture are the two that come into this race in form.
From a handicapping perspective a case can be made for the other three.
The horse in that list of most interest is last year’s winner of this race Tenor Nivernais.
He has been well beaten on all three starts since that impressive performance. However all three of those starts were on left handed tracks and he needs to go right handed.
On the same handicap mark as last year, a big run is expected.
My tissue:
Holly Bush Henry 10/3
Another Venture 10/3
Tenor Nivernais 9/2
7/1 Bar
Tenor Nivernais
3.002m3½f Ascot Spring Garden Show Handicap Hurdle (Class
2) (4yo+)
Dieg Man is expected to improve on first start in a handicap.
Kildisart has solid handicap form.
Both the Henderson runners, Fixe Le Cap and Stowaway Magic are reverting from chasing. The latter has attracted some market support this morning.
Friday Night Light improved on latest start, when runner up at Taunton earlier this month. Can improve further stepping up in trip. Currently a general 9/1.
My tissue:
Kildisart 4/1
Dieg Man 4/1
Friday Night Light 11/2
7/1 bar
Friday Night Light
2018 Cheltenham Festival
I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:
– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean. Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.
– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.
– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.
During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.
The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.
An interesting day of racing with the better quality to be found at Newbury and Warwick. The other turf meeting of the day at Uttoxeter appears to have cornered the market in Class 4 races, with all seven on the card being of that standard.
We are concentrating on two races from Newbury. The official going is soft/good to soft in places. Very similar to that reported by Sandown last Saturday, which proved to be generous as many toiled in the testing ground. I understand why tracks don’t want to deter connections from pulling out, but for the serious backers it is not helpful.
With rain widespread across the country I will be getting up to date going reports direct from contacts at the tracks prior to making my betting decisions before briefing clients at lunchtime.
The maximum twenty four declared for this valuable handicap. With over £150,000 prize money on offer it ensures that the respective trainers will have made all preparations to bring their horses here with a fighting chance.
As the betting suggests it is wide open. I will highlight five horses that are expected to run big races.
Current 9/1 favourite Irish Roe has to be considered. She continues to progress and in theory gets into today’s race very favourably handicapped. However, I’m not sure that her latest form can be taken at face value and her chance is reflected in the market.
Misterton comes into this race of the back of his best performance. Conditions are fine and further improvement is anticipated. 20/1 is fair.
Waterlord disappointed on latest start after impressing when winning previously. This will be his first run in a handicap with a return to his earlier form expected. Presently on offer between 16/1 and 20/1.
And finally two further down the betting list, both available at a general 40/1. Don’t be put off by the price, they are worthy of consideration.
Divin Bere is Paul Nichols sole runner. He shaped much better than his finishing position suggests on reappearance. His Cheltenham and Aintree form from last season puts him in with a live chance at big odds.
Nietzsche is another I can make a case for at big odds. A strong run, big field race will suit. Last season’s form ties in with Divin Bere.
Divin Bere (right)
The recent radical changes in the weather have been a dominant factor as seen by the abandonment of all jump meetings on Wednesday. However, the overarching theme of this winter has been prolonged testing ground. It is a time to circumspect in your betting. This week we have had just four bets producing two winners at 6/4 and 3/1.
2018 Cheltenham Festival
We are now just over four weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.
Two races from Sandown to look at today. The forecast going is on the good side of soft, which is in marked contrast to the heavier conditions experienced at most courses recently that have played a dominant role in my pricing and overall assessment of races.
Gino Trail and Big Jim should ensure this race is run at a good pace.
Difficult to access the level of form achieved by Dolos over fences with certainty, but his mark looks high enough.
Cepage stayed on well to finish second at Ascot in similar conditions. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance here. Charlie Deutsch claims 3lb which is a positive.
Top Gamble is on a good handicap mark.
I price the field as follows:
Cepage 5/2
Top Gamble 7/2
Gino Trail 4/1
Dolos 6/1
Big Jim 6/1
Somchine 33/1
Currently the books all hover around the 3/1 mark for the top three in the market.
Cepage
3.353m Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
Very open handicap.
Final Nudge will be suited by conditions and is on a fair mark. He is the 5/1 favourite with the majority of layers.
Quite By Chance has had a wind operation since last seen at Cheltenham on new year’s day. He has always given me the impression that longer distances could suit him best. At the 14/1 presently on offer, he is of interest.
Quite By Chance
2018 Cheltenham Festival
We are now just over five weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.
Today we have the final Cheltenham meeting before the Festival. It is a fantastic day of racing with eight graded races, five from Cheltenham plus three at Doncaster.
The going at both meetings is soft with further rain forecast throughout the day. The other jumps fixture in Britain is at Uttoxeter where the going is heavy. There is also racing in Ireland at Fairyhouse which contains a few races of interest for the future.
We are going to look at two of the Grade 2 races from Cheltenham:
Bristol de Mai would be at very short odds if coming here directly from his Betfair Chase success at Haydock. However there is the small matter of a desperately disappointing subsequent effort in the King George on Boxing Day to consider.
His two best pieces of form have been shown in very deep ground at Haydock.
It may be that he can handle those conditions when others can’t.
Although the ground will be soft today, it’s very doubtful if it will be as testing as at Haydock. He has to be considered a vulnerable favourite.
Most of the opposition have achieved a similar level of form, with the exception of The Last Samuri. He has been a wonderfully consistent horse at a high handicap level.
He looks to be as good as ever, judging on his latest Aintree run.
In receipt of weight from the majority of the field I expect a big performance.
Wholestone put up an improved performance when winning the Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day.
Both Agrapart and Colins Sister finished behind him there.
Although both enjoy a small pull in the weights, I expect Wholestone to confirm that form.
Finian’s Oscar reverts to hurdles from chasing and his chance is greatly respected.
Beer Goggles has improved on each of his three starts this season.
A line through Colin’s Sister puts him on a par with Wholestone.
Let’s hope he puts up a very strong performance.
On my private tissue I have the front of the market as below:
Wholestone 7/2
Beer Goggles 5/1
Finian’s Oscar 5/1
Wholestone
The early prices on offer from the books are fairly tight around their respective favourites: Bristol and Finian’s. As you will see when making a comparison, it is a view I do not share.
2017 Report & Special Membership
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%.
As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total bets and profit. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on.
The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth achieving an overall 62% strike rate. With the large discount on offer the Exchange Service is well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
You also have my additional race analysis which is for your discretionary use. Members using this area of my work found it to be a regular source of additional profit.
In all, a wholly professional service for the more astute backer.
There are currently special terms available which you can take advantage of now for a limited period. For example to the end of the jumps season, 1st May, are £245 for the Private Service only and £285 for both the Private and Exchange Services. There is also a saving of up to £175 against standard terms for yearly membership. For full details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-terms/
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Please rest assured that any details you provide are held in strictest confidence and are never passed to any third party.
Top quality afternoon of racing with the Clarence House being the premier race of the day. One of seven graded races from Ascot and Haydock. At a lower level, we also have an interesting card from Taunton.
We are staying at Ascot for the early analysis. Heavy rain is forecast throughout the morning which lightens during racing. The reported soft ground is likely to ease further as the day progresses.
3.002m5f bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
A case of sorts can be made for all of today’s six remaining runners after three came out first thing this morning.
Acting Lass is progressive. However his chase wins were gained at Leicester and Market Rasen. He takes on stronger opposition here and could be a vulnerable favourite.
The horse that interests me most is the outsider Minella Daddy.
He hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day 2016. He had been progressive until that run, and returns to action on a fair handicap mark. Minella Daddy’s best two performances have been at this track. The 2m 5f today in testing conditions will take plenty of the stamina he has shown over 3m.
Looking at the odds currently on offer I would make two observations: Acting Lass at 6/4 looks skinny and the 12/1 for Minella Daddy is value in theory.
Minella Daddy
3.352m1f Royal Salute Whisky Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Un De Sceaux sets a high standard. His reappearance win at Cork indicates that he retains plenty of ability.
Brain Power impressed on chase debut before disappointing at Sandown.
Kylemore Lough can be forgiven his latest pulled-up on latest start at Cheltenham.
He was in front travelling well, when he made a terrible mistake at the water jump and could never recover his rhythm.
I expect him to go well on this second run for Harry Fry. Currently a best quoted 12/1.
My private tissue:
Un De Sceaux 4/7
Brain Power 5/1
Kylemore Lough 5/1
33/1 bar
Kylemore Lough
I will be getting going reports direct from course contacts before finalising my betting plans and briefing members at lunchtime. Haydock has passed the inspection and like Taunton, the ground will be testing. It is important to have up to date going reports with such changeable conditions.
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
Please rest assured that any details you provide are held in strictest confidence and are never passed to any third party.
Highly competitive race with the books unable to make any discernible difference between the front three in the market. All are going around 5/1 the field.
Coeur Blimey steps back up in trip and is worth keeping on side at double figure odds. After impressing at Wincanton on his penultimate start, he disappointed at Ascot, where his jumping wasn’t fluent. He had high class bumper form and the Wincanton win confirmed that he retains that level of ability. Today’s conditions will suit and a big run is expected.
Today’s jockey is Lucy Gardener, who is his regular rider and claims what could be a valuable 3lb in this tight race.
16 runners currently, so four places on offer to each way backers.
Count Meribel looked sure to win at the final hurdle, before being outstayed by Kilbricken Storm on latest start at Cheltenham.
Mr Whipped still looked ‘green’ when winning at Newbury. That run makes him the form choice, and with further improvement anticipated he will be hard to beat.
I provisionally price the six runners as follows:
Mr Whipped 7/4
Count Meribel 9/4
Chooseyourweapon 8/1
Knight In Dubai 10/1
Paisley Park 10/1
Cave Top 16/1
Mr Whipped
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
Please rest assured that any details you provide are held in strictest confidence and are never passed to any third party.
Two races for us today: Starting with a tight little handicap hurdle to start the seven race card at Haydock. Then on to the feature race of the day, the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle from Ascot where Unowhatimeanharry looks to repeat his victory in this race last year.
Contrast in ground conditions between the two tracks with Haydock reporting the going as Heavy whilst Ascot is Good to Soft. Both will be run under the thick cloud forecast to cover most of the country.
11.502m7f Betfred Wishing You A Merry Christmas Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135)
Southfield Royale is potentially well handicapped switching to hurdles, but has plenty to prove.
Away For Slates has his third start for the Skelton stable. His form ties in with Becky The Thatcher, with nothing between them on their Wetherby run.
Neither is sure to be suited by today’s stamina test.
Isaacstown Lad ran well on his reappearance at Ayr. He is on a reasonable handicap mark. Conditions are ideal and he is a worthy favourite.
My tissue for the front of the market:
Isaacstown Lad 9/4
Away For Slates 4/1
Becky The Thatcher 4/1
Southfield Royale 8/1
Southfield Royale
2.253m½f JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
At their best Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller set the form standard.
Although both have performed well this season, neither has run to their very best.
I expect them both to run close to their best today.
At the current odds Lil Rockerfeller is my preferred.
Sam Spinner and Thomas Campbell the the two progressive performers who take a step up in class.
I price as follows:
Unowhatimeanharry 3/1
Lil Rockerfeller 3/1
L’Ami Serge 11/2
Sam Spinner 7/1
Thomas Campbell 7/1
Lil Rockerfeller
Six bets so far this week on the Private Service producing three winners at 9/4, 4/1 and 6/1 plus more profits from our exchange betting. We are well over 100 points ahead for the year with a profit on stakes of some 30%, which betters last year’s 25%.
I will be taking my annual break after racing on Boxing Day, returning in early January. If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
My best wishes for Christmas and the new year. The next preview will be Saturday 13th January.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
