Tag Archives: aintree

horse racing

Tightly knit

Seven races this afternoon at Wetherby, the first five are all Class 4 events and the final two are classed at 6 and 5 respectively. A marginally better overall standard than the other turf meeting at Fontwell.

The going is Good to Soft at Wetherby where we look at two races containing quite a few handicap chasers who will be familiar to many.

2.50 Wetherby

Negatives concerning all five runners in this tightly knit race, where nothing can be ruled out.

I provisionally price them as follows:

Gin Cobbler 11/4

Roxyfet  11/4

Ever So Much 5/1

Chestnut Ben 5/1

Akula 11/2

 

Roxyfet

3.50 Wetherby

Swing Hard comes into this race in form after a gutsy victory at this track ten days ago. Expect a positive ride.

Attimo is weighted to reverse earlier form with Swing Hard, but broke blood vessels on latest start.

Volt Face latest Towcester form is suspect.

Treat Yourself is well handicapped, but found little for pressure on latest start.

My tissue:

Swing Hard  5/2

Treat Yourself 3/1

Attimo 7/2

Volt Face  7/1

14/1 bar

 

You can start your special Aintree membership today. Just £25 gets you:

– All my bets and extra race analysis to Sunday 9th April

– Low cost line from 1.00 p.m. for bets and extra race analysis

– Bets only by text or email on request

Join now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-special-membership/

Or call the Racing Office on 0208 936 7084

horse racing

Marginal value

We stay at Newbury for the second day of the meeting. The going is Good to Soft (Good in places) and another bright spring day is forecast.

Newbury 2.25

Wide open race in which the veteran Ericht has his ideal conditions.

The 11y.o. looked the winner going to the last at Doncaster on latest start, before weakening on the run-in and just being caught.

That was over 3 miles and this 4f drop in trip will suit him. Currently a general 10/1 which looks about right.

 

Ericht

Newbury 4.10

Just the five remain for this 2m novice hurdle.

Top weighted Sir Antony Browne may find conditions on the sharp side.

Most Celebrated found little for pressure on latest start over today’s c&d.

Adrrastos form is suspect.

Beach Bar is a useful flat horses making hurdles debut.

Whin Park needs to improve.

At the prices Most Celebrated is the marginal value at the 2/1 on offer. I go:

Sir Antony Browne  13/8

Most Celebrated  13/8

Adrrastos  6/1

Beach Bar 12/1

Whin Park  33/1

 

Our next special membership  is for the Aintree Grand National meeting. Advance booking is just £20 for membership covering the period starting next Saturday 1st to Sunday 9th April. Advance booking rate available this weekend only. Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-grand-national-meeting-special-membership/

 

horse racing

Howlong test

Start of a fairly decent two-dayer at Newbury. The going is Good to Soft and racegoers can expect a pleasant spring afternoon. One race for us to untangle:

 2.30 Newbury

Howlongisafoot won unchallenged at Stratford last week by an eased down 28 lengths. However he beat out of form opposition there and this race looks much stronger.

There is no doubting that the Chris Gordon yard is in good form with eight winners from the last twelve runners to which Howlongisafoot contributed with that Stratford victory. Clients were on one those eight as part of our three winners from three bets only last weekend.

Private Malone has been a disappointment this season. He has a piece of form from last year which makes him look very well handicapped. Connections will be hoping the first time cheek-pieces bring him back to life.

Midnight Monty is very interesting on his first start for the Tom Lacey yard. Previously with Keith Reveley, he is also a horse that is fairly treated.

Howlongisafoot is a vulnerable favourite, with Midnight Monty being of most interest. Currently the books go 2/1 Howlongisafoot with Midnight Monty in at 5/1. Worth keeping a watch on the market.

 

Chris Gordon gallopsOur next special membership after Cheltenham is for the Aintree Grand National meeting. Advance booking is just £20 for membership covering the period Saturday 1st to Sunday 9th April. Advance booking rate available this weekend only.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-grand-national-meeting-special-membership/

 

 

horse racing

Back from the USA

Just the one race for us today at Kempton. The going is Good.

 2.05 Kempton

Clic Work is progressive as shown by his two victories at Doncaster and Taunton. Not raced since that Taunton win at the end of January. However, he needs to sharpen up his jumping.

Hollybush Henry isn’t an easy ride though is on a fair mark.

Days Of Heaven is difficult to evaluate with last 2 starts being in the USA. He does have winning form at this course from around this time last year over 2m 4.5f.

I go:

Clic Work  7/4

Hollybush Henry 3/1

Days Of Heaven 4/1

Theatre Flame 11/2

Midtech Valentine 20/1

Clic Work is currently around 5/4 with the books, which looks on the skinny side.

 

Days Of Heaven

Rock the WorldLooking back to the two races analysed yesterday on this blog. I wanted to be against Native River, who I felt needed to improve and was far too short in the market. I put him in at 10/1 and he finished a creditable third at 7/2.

In the Grand Annual I narrowed it down to three from the twenty four runners. The three all made the frame with Rock The World running out the 10/1 winner.

Rock the World
Rock the World

Finally my thanks to everyone who donated to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust. Your contribution will be put to good use in supporting the stable staff.

Our next special membership will be for the Grand National week. More details nearer the time on my website.

horse racing

Mad to step up again?

Leave a comment

Four good meetings for us this afternoon with four races apiece from Sandown and Aintree on Channel 4. The going remains Good/Good to Soft. A cloudy and dry day is forecast across the country.

Two races for us this afternoon, both at Sandown.

12.20 Sandown Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Cruiseaweigh was impressive when winning his bumper at Aintree early last month and is of most interest.

Bardd bumper form isn’t as strong.

Dashing Oscar and Crystal Lad set hurdles form standard.

I have Cruiseaweigh in at 7/4 on my provisional tissue.

Sandown Park
Sandown Park

3.00 Sandown Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1)

Un De Sceaux sets a high standard if near his best.

Ar Mad is the unexposed improver.

I go 6/4 Un De Sceaux  and 9/2  Ar Mad.

Un De Sceaux on his way to Arkle victory
Un De Sceaux on his way to Arkle victory

 

Just the one bet for us yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a heavily backed short odds favourite. With the lays I specialise in going against the market by opposing favourites who I consider poor value. Yesterday I set a maximum lay limit of 2.4, our bet was returned at 2.1.

By concentrating on favourites we have much greater liquidity and by having a maximum cut-off price, I eliminate the dangerous practice of laying blind. On all lays this year we have a success rate of well over 70%, quite a few have been odds-on.

horse racing

Dee value – Cocktails return?

Leave a comment

Informative day of racing at Aintree who have had plenty of rain yesterday evening and provide a welcome report of good to soft ground. We go to Wincanton for two races of interest. The going there is good.

Wincanton 1.35 Wincanton Rising Stars Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)

Intriguing two and a half miler where a case can be made for all four runners. All four are progressive

On chase form achieved Master Dee looks overpriced at around 9/1-10/1.

My tissue:

Shantou Village 5/2

Frodon 5/2

Virgilio 5/2

Master Dee 11/2

Master Dee
Master Dee

Wincanton 3.20 Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

 A few potentially well handicapped contenders in Cocktails At Dawn, Southfield Theatre and Fingerontheswitch.

The latter fell on latest start and needs to get his jumping together.

Excuses can be made for Cocktails At Dawn failing to complete on last two starts. However, he has to prove himself at this distance.

Southfield Theatre boasts some excellent back form and looks to have been targeted at this race.

I price the three as follows:

Southfield Theatre 4/1

Cocktails At Dawn   8/1

Fingerontheswitch  8/1

Southfield Theatre
Southfield Theatre

 

The meeting at Warwick yesterday highlighted the problems some courses are having with the firmer ground. Plenty of non-runners before racing which was exacerbated by further withdrawals as racing progressed. We ended up with one bet yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a long odds-on favourite.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Update

Leave a comment

After a lot of hard work on today’s cards, there is not a lot of value to be had.

At Aintree the three handicaps are incredibly difficult to unravel and I am not going to get sucked in to bookmakers benefit races.

The 3.25 is there for Vautour on the Cheltenham run. This leaves the 2.50 where I go 7/4 Un Temps Pour Tout and 3/1 Blaklion, which leaves minimal value against the books.

Finally the 2.40 Newcastle. Mumgos Debut is dropped in class today in an attempt to get the 8 y.o. into the winners enclosure for the first time in seventeen attempts. 2/1 my tissue.

Back tomorrow.

horse racing, Uncategorized

2/1 the pair

Leave a comment

Two races for us to briefly look at today. Both for races that are very tight at the top of the market.

We start in the 2.05 Newcastle.

Looks a match between Lake View Lad and Lamool. The market has them at 4/7 and 6/4 respectively.

Lake View Lad disappointed when stepped up in class at Kelso last time. Drops markedly back to Class 4 again today.

Lamool returns from a six month break. Has won above this level in the past.

Both are off the same weight and have 5lb claimers. I have the pair as even money joint-fav’s.

On to the 2.15 at Aintree.

Limini impressed when winning the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and takes on the boys today.

It’s another Mullins vs Henderson match up with Buveur D’air the main danger. I go 2/1 the pair.

Limini
Limini

Will be doing a quick update for Aintree around 1.30 today.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Grand National preview

Leave a comment

The modern day Grand National is very different to the race that was run back in the day.

Modification to the fences and increased prize money have made it a wide open handicap, with the vast majority of runners having some sort of chance.

A brief look at some of the major contenders. I will be analysing the race in greater detail Friday/Saturday when we have a clearer picture.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds is favourite at around 8/1.

He appeared to delight everyone with his latest success at Kelso, where he travelled and jumped well and was visually impressive.  However the form of that Kelso race is suspect.

This year’s renewal looks stronger than the 2015 race and at the current odds Many Clouds is of no value.

Silviniaco Conti returned to form at Ascot when blinkered for the first time following the previously worn cheek-pieces.  A high class horse that is handicapped to win, it is his possible stamina limitations that concern me.

Silviniaco Conti
Silviniaco Conti

The Last Samuri put in a career best run when winning at Doncaster on latest start and could improve again. He looks to have a good mix of speed and stamina and jumps well.

At the 10/1 on offer I would keep him onside.

Holywell and Cause Of Causes were in action at Cheltenham, both horses returning to something near their best.

Cause Of Causes is a thorough stayer who was never nearer than at the finish in last year’s National. At the time of writing he is not sure to get a run as he needs a few above him in the handicap to drop out. If he does take part and his jockey can keep him closer to the leaders he will be staying on at the finish. Around 20/1 is fair.

Holywell was beaten by a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham and if staying the National trip must go well.

Bishops Road comes from the in-form Kerry Lee stable. He stayed on strongly to win the National trial at Haydock. Soft ground would bring him into the reckoning. Currently best priced 25/1.

Bishops Road
Bishops Road

Back tomorrow morning for a look at the Friday card.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Aintree Special

Leave a comment

Before looking at today’s racing, just a brief word regarding the Aintree Special membership.

From just £20 (£22.50 to include bets by text), you will get my work from tomorrow right through to the Sunday after the Grand National.

Highlights from a very profitable Aintree last year were:

Rajdhani Express WON 10/1
Saphir Du Rheu WON 7/4
Whisper WON 7.6

All were straight win bets and as you can see, we cater for the traditional and exchange backers.

There is plenty of detail on my website and you can secure your place now at: http://slh.co.uk/index.php/aintree-spec-2016

Aintree starts on Thursday
Aintree starts on Thursday

Newbury start a good two day meeting and there are two races I want to touch on this afternoon.

In the 3.00, I was impressed by Roycano’s performance when winning at Fakenham last time out. This was the 6 y.o.’s first victory in six starts since his hurdling debut in 2013. Whether he can progress and defy the weight rise remains to be seen. The books go 9/4 favourite, I am 3/1 on my tissue.

In the following race at 3.35, bottom weighed Potter’s Cross had every chance when falling five out on latest start. Of his rivals, I see Viva Steve as the main danger. I rate both as 3/1 chances.

Back tomorrow morning.