Category Archives: horse racing

What A Weekend!

First meetings of the new season from both Cheltenham and Aintree plus two good cards on the flat from Doncaster and Newbury.

Today at Cheltenham is a ‘look and learn’ day. Plenty of Irish challengers to add to the many unknown factors at this embryonic stage of the season.

I price up every race of interest to me. The many unknown factors make it a very difficult task.

One that I will be watching closely today is Qewy in the 2.40. The 5 y.o. makes his chasing debut having finished 5th in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival and third in a Grade 2 hurdle at the Aintree National meeting.

With just the three to post, this is a tight betting event with the market just making Rock The World favourite over Qewy. Some go 6/4 the pair.

Qewy isn’t straightforward and there are too many intangibles to get seriously involved at short odds in a race likely to end up a tactical battle.

Qewy winning impressively at Newbury. Riddne by AP McCoy, one of the two winners on the day he announced his retirement.
Qewy winning impressively at Newbury. Ridden by AP McCoy, one of his two winners on the day he announced his retirement.

Back tomorrow morning with the regular Saturday preview.

Burning revenge?

1.20 Ascot British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

Noted horse Twilight Son continues to progress and looks sure to go well in what will be his hardest task to date. Unbeaten in all five career starts he is partnered for the first time by Ryan Moore at the owners request. Conditions seem ideal.
His last run at Haydock was his first start this season away from handicaps. He narrowly triumphed over the fast finishing Strath Burn in a race where the 3y.o.’s dominated.

Strath Burn had the disadvantage of racing well away from his main rivals on that occasion. He has made good progression this season. Strath Burn has a similar chance to Twilight Son but is available at close to double the price.

Twilight Son edges out Strath Burn by a short head to win the Sprint Cup at Haydock
Twilight Son edges out Strath Burn by a short head to win the Sprint Cup at Haydock

3.05 Ascot Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs deserves to be market leader, although at the general 11/8 on offer, I will not get involved.
A case can be made for at least five of his opponents and I have him at 9/4 on my provisional tissue.

Both Twilight Son and Jack Hobbs were on my early season noted horses list, which has provided plenty of good winners throughout the summer. I will be shortly be making my 2015/16 National Hunt noted horses shortlist available. If you would like a copy just send me an email or call my office on 0208 650 5721.

Champions Day

Six races from Ascot on Channel 4 tomorrow on Champions Day, starting from 12.45 with the Group 2 Long Distance Cup.

This 2 miler attracts some of the best from both the flat and National hunt. Willie Mullins sends over three horses from his County Carlow yard including Cheltenham Festival winner Wicklow Brave.

Leading the market are last years’ winner Forgotten Rules, trained by Dermot Weld and Brian Meehan’s Agent Murphy. The latter taking on this extended distance for the first time.

There are a few running tomorrow who have done us some favours this season, Gm Hopkins and Twilight Son spring readily to mind.

Gm Hopkins edges out Temptress to give us a 12/1 victory in the Royal Hunt Cup
Gm Hopkins edges out Temptress to give us a 12/1 victory in the Royal Hunt Cup

The rest of tomorrow’s fixtures contain a flat meeting at Catterick plus three jumps cards.

It is going to be a long hard evening and morning of study plus collating information from various sources.

Back tomorrow with the regular Saturday preview.

Devon Lock?

4.30 Chepstow totepool Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

It is a day when we will see plenty of future pointers at both Newmarket and Chepstow.

This is the richest race on the Chepstow card this afternoon. It is a highly competitive event over 2m 3f with any amount of chances. My concentration is on two horses both from Devon based trainers.

Nick Williams trained Tea For Two is a horse that impressed last season before disappointing on his final start at the Cheltenham Festival when pulling up before the last in the Albert Bartlett.
The step up in grade, first time hood and longer trip are all factors that may have contributed to that poor performance.

He is certainly not a horse to give up on and he is expected to go well in a race that has been his early season target.

Tea For Two stretching clear to win The Lanzarote Hurdle last January
Tea For Two stretching clear to win The Lanzarote Hurdle last January

David Pipe guides The Liquidator back to the racecourse after a long absence. The 7yo is having his first start since the Punchestown Festival of 2014.
He is potentially well handicapped if retaining his ability and is greatly respected. Winner of the 2013 champion bumper at Punchestown and the Supreme trial at Cheltenham in November of the same year. His return is greatly anticipated.

A difficult race to price with total confidence as the majority of the field are making their seasonal reappearances, some of which have targets further down the line.
I have Tea For Two at 6/1 on my provisional tissue.
I haven’t priced The Liquidator-however if fit, well and fancied I would have him near the top of the market.

Can Crystal shine?

Around the start of the current season I compiled my early season noted horses shortlist.

Crystal Zvezda pulling away from her rivals at Newbury for an emphatic victory
Crystal Zvezda pulling away from her rivals at Newbury for an emphatic victory

Some like Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and Time Test have hit the heights. Our winner last Saturday, Log Out Island, is on the shortlist. As is Crystal Zvezda who competes for the Dubai Pride Stakes at Newmarket this afternoon.

Like Log Out Island, Crystal Zvezda started the season brightly but has struggled since then. There are a lot of positives for today and she is expected to show her true ability.

We have had just three bets so far this week, producing two good winners including Barton Antix on Wednesday. The SP of 11/2 was a bit of value in a week where the bookmakers pricing has been very uncompetitive.

Presently we have a special introductory membership offer to Boxing Day. Just £195 will get you all my work.

To sign up, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/intro-mem-boxing-day

Back tomorrow for our regular Saturday preview.

Introductory Special

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Silviniaco Conti on his way to victory in the 2014 King George on Boxing Day.
Silviniaco Conti on his way to victory in the 2014 King George on Boxing Day.

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‘Interesting week ahead. Jumps fixtures every day except Tuesday. There is rain forecast earlier in the week which should provide good jumping conditions and then we could have drying ground towards the weekend. The quality on the flat comes from Friday onwards beginning with York. My attention is going towards the jumps, but there are still opportunities for us on the flat as Saturday’s winner proved.

If you are looking to take your betting to a more professional level then seriously look at taking membership now.’

Log Out to Log In?

Four turf meetings this afternoon in Britain and nine races on Channel 4. Whilst there initially looks plenty to go at, trying to assess true value is difficult. It is a transitional period of the year with the flat in its final stages and the main jumps season just getting underway. Value is tight and caution is advised.
Two races to look at this afternoon:

3.00 Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race)

Big field looking for a share of the £150,000 prize money. Most have plenty to find if either of the two form horses, Log Out Island or Mayfair Lady run their race.
Log Out Island was one of my early season noted horses and is preferred here. Ran a solid 2nd in the Group 2 Mill Reef on latest start just two weeks ago.
This could be another big 2yo prize going to the Richard Hannon stable.
If you are looking to back anything each way here, some firms are going quarter odds a place.

Log Out Island winning at Ascot
Log Out Island winning at Ascot

3.20 Fontwell Rockinghorse Childrens Charity Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Difficult race to price confidently as horses make their seasonal debuts.
The well bred Istimraar is an ex-Godolphin horse who made little impact on the flat.
Has first start since moving from Philip Kirby to Dan Skelton last week. In past races he has been suited by wearing head gear, but they are dispensed with today.
After Eight Sivola can progress with a decent conditional jockey taking 5lb off. Signed off last season with a victory at Wincanton, defeating one of today’s rivals, Benbecula.
Promanco is the most interesting having been very impressive on latest start when winning easily at Wetherby.
Looks sure to be market leader and not a horse I would oppose lightly.
Provisionally 7/2 on my early tissue.

Saturday cards

It has been a quiet week for us. Very much a transitional time. Never worth getting seriously involved when the betting value is questionable.

Nine races on Channel 4 tomorrow, four each from Newmarket and Ascot plus a 2 y.o. listed race from Redcar.

Treve winning the 2014 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Treve winning the 2014 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

At this point there looks to be four races tomorrow I am particularly interested in. More on this tomorrow.

Three jumps cards on Sunday and over at Longchamp we have the Arc meeting with Treve defending her double winning crown.

Conquisto to conquer?

Our feature this Saturday is the 2.50 at Market Rasen. This 2m 5f listed handicap is worth over £28,000 to the winner. Forecast going is good.
The current market leader, Oscar Rock may have scored a hat-trick but for being hampered and falling on latest start.
He is progressive, although the Jefferson stable runners have looked to be in need of a run.

Edguardo Sol is fairly handicapped but may prefer a left handed track.

Valco De Touzaine isn’t a straightforward ride but is weighted to go close, with fitness guaranteed. 5/1 my tissue, which is the general price available.

Conquisto is of some interest at double figure odds having suggested he retains some of his old ability on latest start. Getting on to two years since the 10 y.o. last saw the winners enclosure when landing the valuable Old Roan Chase at Aintree.
Currently on offer at 14/1, which is double my price. Must be worth a look.

Tony McCoy and Conquisto (left) battling with Astracad at Aintree
Tony McCoy and Conquisto (left) battling with Astracad at Aintree

Televised Racing Preview

Channel 4 show four races this afternoon from Newmarket.

In the 3.05 Hawksmoor sets the standard after impressing at Goodwood. Showed great resolution and finishing speed to just get up on the line. However, there are a few potential improvers here and the current 2/1 looks skinny.

Time Test powering to victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot
Time Test powering to victory in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot

The 3.40 is contested by just four runners, including one of my early season noted horses, Time Test. Started the season with victories at Newbury and Ascot on good ground. Went to York for the Juddmonte and finished a fairly remote fourth in more testing conditions. Expected to return to form today. But I would like to see how good the ground actually is. If he has more ideal conditions, anything over even-money would be fair.

Tomorrow we have six televised races from Newmarket and Market Rasen. The Cambridgeshire is the highlight with 35 runners declared for the 9 furlong ‘cavalry charge’.

Update tomorrow as I look at a feature race from the Saturday cards.