Category Archives: horse racing

National experience

The Aintree going is a big factor again today. The ground on the Mildmay and Hurdle course is Soft whilst it is Heavy on the National course. However, the area has had a dry night and the forecast is for a warm breezy day with temperatures up to 15 Celsius by this afternoon. It is likely to be drying ground which can make the surface unresponsive.

One race to look at this afternoon plus the Grand National.

4.20 3m½f Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 Sam Spinner and Wholestone have little between them on Cheltenham form.

Sam Spinner will be ridden positively and may still progress.

Wholestone looks sure to go well, but doesn’t always find a great deal at the finish.

If L’Ami Serge runs, he has a live chance of following up Thursday’s success.

I have the front of the market as follows:

Sam Spinner  9/4

Wholestone  4/1

L’Ami Serge   4/1

Sam Spinner

Grand National

I will be getting a course report from Aintree at lunchtime before briefing members at 1.00 p.m. By then we should have a better idea how the ground will ride. At present my thoughts on the Grand National are for Gordon Elliott’s Ucello Conti. Has course experience with conditions suitable. Daryl Jacob again takes the ride over the national fences.

 

Ucello Conti

 Summer campaign

We are now in the final weeks of the main seven month 2017/18 jumps campaign which has yielded a rewarding 35% profit on stakes invested.

You can join now for the summer season and get the rest of this month included free plus a good discount from the standard terms. For more details go to: www.slh.co.uk

We’re on a highway to Kelso

The ITV cameras head to a picturesque Kelso for four races this afternoon. We are looking at the first of their live races. The going is heavy and some light rain is expected during the later races. Temperatures are a mild 11 to 12 degrees Celsius.

Kelso

 

Next week sees the start of the Aintree Festival meeting. More news after we look at the 1.50.

 

1.50 2m7½f Sue And Harvey Smith Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)

 A very tight four runner handicap in which the morning layers marginally make Teddy Tee the favourite.

ACDC has Liam Quinlan, the amateur jockey on board who rode him to victory three starts ago at this course. Fairly handicapped with suitable conditions, although the 8 y.o. has never been a straightforward ride.

Teddy Tee continues to run well, but is vulnerable at the finish.

Hills Of Dubai and Just Georgie tie in closely, but Hills Of Dubai isn’t proven at this trip.

I have Just Georgie as my marginal favourite in a race sponsored by his trainer.

Just Georgie  5/2

Teddy Tee      3/1

Hills Of Dubai  3/1

ACDC             7/2

 

ACDC

 

Aintree Special

Last weekend we had two bets only, both winners.

Our biggest bet of the week was on Saturday. Our bet soundly beat the odds-on favourite.
On Sunday we again defied popular opinion with a 9/4 winner who drew well clear of the 2/5 favourite.
This rounded off a profitable week and another profitable month.

The bad weather has meant there has been just the one meeting so far this week. Yesterday at Fontwell we had one bet which provided us with a very rewarding 13/2 winner. Plus I analysed three other races for members own betting purposes, this supplied three further winners.

Our Aintree special membership starts today. You get all my bets and analysis from just £20 for membership through to Sunday 15th April.

For more details and other membership options go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-special/

 

Aintree special

We go to Carlisle today for a competitive novices’ chase. The going at the Cumbria track is Good to Soft. The forecast is for rain all morning and then a dry afternoon.

After looking at the 2.15 there is also news on a special membership centred around the Aintree Grand National meeting.

2.15 2m4f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Novices’ Chase (Class 3) (5yo+)

Secrete Stream and Ballycrystal set the standard, although both have something to prove.

Secrete Stream was very disappointing on latest start and is fitted with first time blinkers.

The better ground conditions will suit.

Ballycrystal returned from a break to run in a jumpers bumper at Newcastle four weeks ago. That run would have would teed him up for today.

Elusive Theatre ran well on her latest start and should figure. However she would need to improve to beat the above pair if either give there running.

I price the race as follows:

Ballycrystal         5/2

Secrete Stream  11/4

Elusive Theatre  4/1

Alzamaar            8/1

Bollin Ace           9/1

33/1 bar

Ballycrystal

 

The Grand National is now just two weeks away and we have a special membership covering the entire Aintree week. Membership runs from next Saturday through to Sunday 15th and is just £20. For more details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-special/

Back to earth

After the highs of a fabulous four days at Cheltenham it’s back to earth today with three jumps cards from Kempton, Fontwell and Uttoxeter.

One race from Kempton for us this morning.

 2m Matchbook VIP Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)

A case can be made for all five runners.

Free Stone Hill has dropped to handicap mark that he has the ability to win off. However he finds little in a finish and isn’t to be trusted.

Deauville Dancer returns from a winter break and may benefit from this race.

Copain De Classe was left with a solo after his only rival fell at only the second fence on his latest start. He has potential, but is at short odds on form achieved.  Currently on offer at 5/4.

Both Kayf Blanco and Vocaliser are running well.

My private tissue:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

  

Copain De Classe

 

2018 Cheltenham Festival

My thanks to everyone who donated and to the preview contributors: Donn McClean, Richard Hoiles, John Hunt and Paul O’Hara.

The two commentators both enjoyed success from their selective advices. Richard with 13/2 winner Mr Whitaker and John emphatically stated that the ‘best bet of the entire meeting has to be Presenting Percy.’  Another great ride from Davy Russell providing a 5/2 winner.

Plus there was plenty for readers from the other contributors.

Lots of great performances with many thrilling finishes and the dominant displays from the likes of Samcro, Altior and Laurina. For me the highlight of the week was the Gold Cup and the relentless jumping performance of Native River. However I have doubts whether the Gold Cup is recently of the same standard of past era’s.

All donations go to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust who build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping keep vital staff in racing.

Support the stable staff

Concentrating on the big race of the day at Sandown; the Imperial Cup. A race with a long history dating back to 1907. Until the launch of the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival it was regarded as the most important hurdle of the jumps season.

Our special Cheltenham membership is available from today. It includes a comprehensive Festival preview which will also be sent today. More details about both below.

2.25 2m Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Whatswrongwithyou impressed when winning at Newbury and falls into the category of “could be anything”. It was the manner of that victory rather than the substance of the form.

However he hasn’t been missed in the market. The general 7/2 on offer in a seventeen runner highly competitive handicap makes little appeal.

Whatswrongwithyou

Master Of Irony was noted on his latest start, being never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race at Newbury.

He handles today’s conditions and with Richard Johnson back in the saddle (he rode him when winning at Wetherby) and a big run is expected. Presently quoted around the 10/1 mark.

 

  

2018 Cheltenham Festival

The Festival starts this Tuesday and I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson avoids the obvious with a one at a backable price.

– Full access to my bets and analysis from today to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

Dee target

Three jump meetings on what will be a particularly cold Saturday afternoon. We are going to briefly look at three races from Kempton. They report their going as Good to Soft, but the covers set down on Thursday are still to come off. I will be getting a more accurate going report direct from one of my senior contacts later this morning. Whilst Kempton is a free draining track  the covers can deaden the ground and that will be an important point when I get my own report.

Today’s Kempton card is one of the last meetings with trials for the Cheltenham Festival  now just over a fortnight away.

 1.50 2m4½f Betdaq Now 2% Commission Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Cyrname deserves to be at short odds. I have him in at 4/7 on my private tissue.

Excellent jumper and expected to be a player at the Spring festivals.

Cyrname

2.25 2m (Winter) Betdaq #ChangingForTheBettor Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo)

Redicean is at short odds after impressing in his two successes.

However his jumping needs to improve, the bare form of his wins isn’t solid.

I would want odds against before contemplating involvement. Currently around 4/5 in the early markets.

Redicean

3.35 3m Betdaq Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Wide open affair in which Master Dee is expected to go well.

This has been the target and conditions will suit.

Presently on offer at 7/1 with some 15/2 in places.

  

 

Master Dee

 2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.

My thanks to everyone who has already taken advantage of the advance booking offer, your donations are greatly appreciated.

Eyes right

As seems to be the case for quite a while, the weather forecast has to be studied almost as carefully as the form. Today the block capitals HEAVY loom large in the going reports for all three jump meetings. We are set for a dry day with temperatures nudging towards double figures in the south. Therefore we are likely to see the ground drying as the afternoon progresses. It will be a factor.

We are concentrating on the Ascot card today starting with a stamina test.

2.25 3m Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Early morning favourite Gold Present is now a non-runner leaving six to post.

Holly Bush Henry and Another Venture are the two that come into this race in form.

From a handicapping perspective a case can be made for the other three.

The horse in that list of most interest is last year’s winner of this race Tenor Nivernais.

He has been well beaten on all three starts since that impressive performance. However all three of those starts were on left handed tracks and he needs to go right handed.

On the same handicap mark as last year, a big run is expected.

My tissue:

Holly Bush  Henry   10/3

Another Venture    10/3

Tenor Nivernais       9/2

7/1 Bar

Tenor Nivernais

 

3.00 2m3½f Ascot Spring Garden Show Handicap Hurdle (Class

2) (4yo+)

Dieg Man is expected to improve on first start in a handicap.

Kildisart has solid handicap form.

Both the Henderson runners, Fixe Le Cap and Stowaway Magic are reverting from chasing. The latter has attracted some market support this morning.

Friday Night Light improved on latest start, when runner up at Taunton earlier this month. Can improve further stepping up in trip. Currently a general 9/1.

My tissue:

Kildisart   4/1

Dieg Man 4/1

Friday Night Light  11/2

7/1 bar

 

Friday Night Light

 

2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.

Worth a look at 40/1

An interesting day of racing with the better quality to be found at Newbury and Warwick. The other turf meeting of the day at Uttoxeter appears to have cornered the market in Class 4 races, with all seven on the card being of that standard.

We are concentrating on two races from Newbury. The official going is soft/good to soft in places. Very similar to that reported by Sandown last Saturday, which proved to be generous as many toiled in the testing ground. I understand why tracks don’t want to deter connections from pulling out, but for the serious backers it is not helpful.

With rain widespread across the country I will be getting up to date going reports direct from contacts at the tracks prior to making my betting decisions before briefing clients at lunchtime.

1.50 3m Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

Barters Hill’s reappearance after a fourteen month absence is of significant interest.

A leading novice hurdler in 2015/16, he was pulled up on his chase debut when last seen on the track.

He has done plenty of work in preparation for today. If retaining his ability he is very favourably handicapped.

The Eaglehaslanded also returns from a long absence.

He has been dropped a few pounds in the handicap since last seen. Conditions will suit and I expect him to go well.

With the horses that have recent form all looking beatable it is a difficult race to price with confidence.

The two returners make the most appeal.

Barters Hill

 

3.35 2m½f Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

The maximum twenty four declared for this valuable handicap. With over £150,000 prize money on offer it ensures that the respective trainers will have made all preparations to bring their horses here with a fighting chance.

As the betting suggests it is wide open. I will highlight five horses that are expected to run big races.

Current 9/1 favourite Irish Roe has to be considered. She continues to progress and in theory gets into today’s race very favourably handicapped. However, I’m not sure that her latest form can be taken at face value and her chance is reflected in the market.

Misterton comes into this race of the back of his best performance. Conditions are fine and further improvement is anticipated. 20/1 is fair.

Waterlord disappointed on latest start after impressing when winning previously. This will be his first run in a handicap with a return to his earlier form expected. Presently on offer between 16/1 and 20/1.

And finally two further down the betting list, both available at a general 40/1. Don’t be put off by the price, they are worthy of consideration.

Divin Bere is Paul Nichols sole runner. He shaped much better than his finishing position suggests on reappearance. His Cheltenham and Aintree form from last season puts him in with a live chance at big odds.

Nietzsche is another I can make a case for at big odds. A strong run, big field race will suit. Last season’s form ties in with Divin Bere.

 

Divin Bere (right)

The recent radical changes in the weather have been a dominant factor as seen by the abandonment of all jump meetings on Wednesday. However, the overarching theme of this winter has been prolonged testing ground. It is a time to circumspect in your betting. This week we have had just four bets producing two winners at 6/4 and 3/1.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

We are now just over four weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

The advance price is £25. Click on the link for more details.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14/1 Chance

Two races from Sandown to look at today. The forecast going is on the good side of soft, which is in marked contrast to the heavier conditions experienced at most courses recently that have played a dominant role in my pricing and overall assessment of races.

1.15 1m7½f Betfred “Treble Odds On Lucky 15’s” Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Gino Trail and Big Jim should ensure this race is run at a good pace.

Difficult to access the level of form achieved by Dolos over fences with certainty, but his mark looks high enough.

Cepage stayed on well to finish second at Ascot in similar conditions. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance here. Charlie Deutsch claims 3lb which is a positive.

Top Gamble is on a good handicap mark.

I price the field as follows:

Cepage          5/2

Top Gamble 7/2

Gino Trail      4/1

Dolos             6/1

Big Jim           6/1

Somchine     33/1

Currently the books all hover around the 3/1 mark for the top three in the market.

Cepage

3.35 3m Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Very open handicap.

Final Nudge will be suited by conditions and is on a fair mark. He is the 5/1 favourite with the majority of layers.

Quite By Chance has had a wind operation since last seen at Cheltenham on new year’s day. He has always given me the impression that longer distances could suit him best. At the 14/1 presently on offer, he is of interest.

 

Quite By Chance

 

2018 Cheltenham Festival

We are now just over five weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.

For more information and to register for further details, please go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/racing-charity/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favourites too short

Today we have the final Cheltenham meeting before the Festival. It is a fantastic day of racing with eight graded races, five from Cheltenham plus three at Doncaster.

The going at both meetings is soft with further rain forecast throughout the day. The other jumps fixture in Britain is at Uttoxeter where the going is heavy. There is also racing in Ireland at Fairyhouse which contains a few races of interest for the future.

We are going to look at two of the Grade 2 races from Cheltenham:

2.25 3m1½f (New) BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Bristol de Mai would be at very short odds if coming here directly from his Betfair Chase success at Haydock. However there is the small matter of a desperately disappointing subsequent effort in the King George on Boxing Day to consider.

His two best pieces of form have been shown in very deep ground at Haydock.

It may be that he can handle those conditions when others can’t.

Although the ground will be soft today, it’s very doubtful if it will be as testing as at Haydock. He has to be considered a vulnerable favourite.

Most of the opposition have achieved a similar level of form, with the exception of The Last Samuri. He has been a wonderfully consistent horse at a high handicap level.

He looks to be as good as ever, judging on his latest Aintree run.

In receipt of weight from the majority of the field I expect a big performance.

I provisionally price as follows:

Bristol  De Mai  3/1

The Last Samuri 4/1

American  11/2

Tea For Two  11/2

Definitly Red  6/1

20/1 bar

 

The Last Samuri
The Last Samuri

 3.35 3m (New) galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Wholestone put up an improved performance when winning the Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day.

Both Agrapart and Colins Sister finished behind him there.

Although both enjoy a small pull in the weights, I expect Wholestone to confirm that form.

Finian’s Oscar reverts to hurdles from chasing and his chance is greatly respected.

Beer Goggles has improved on each of his three starts this season.

A line through Colin’s Sister puts him on a par with Wholestone.

Let’s hope he puts up a very strong performance.

On my private tissue I have the front of the market as below:

Wholestone  7/2

Beer Goggles  5/1

Finian’s  Oscar  5/1

 

Wholestone

The early prices on offer from the books are fairly tight around their respective favourites: Bristol and Finian’s. As you will see when making a comparison, it is a view I do not share.

2017 Report & Special Membership

Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%.

As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total bets and profit. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on.

The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth achieving an overall 62% strike rate. With the large discount on offer the Exchange Service is well worth adding to your betting portfolio.

You also have my additional race analysis which is for your discretionary use. Members using this area of my work found it to be a regular source of additional profit.

In all, a wholly professional service for the more astute backer.

There are currently special terms available which you can take advantage of now for a limited period. For example to the end of the jumps season, 1st May, are £245 for the Private Service only and £285 for both the Private and Exchange Services. There is also a saving of up to £175 against standard terms for yearly membership. For full details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-terms/

Bets are advised by low cost calls included in your call packages for both landlines and mobiles. Plus free texts and emails on request.

If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/

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