All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

Sandown finale

The final day of the jumps season and it has been another rewarding one. Our summer campaign starts next week, more on that later.

Two races from Sandown for us to briefly look at this afternoon. The going is now Good to Soft.

1.50 2m bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+)

A maximum of twenty runners entered for the opener.

Ar Mest is fairly handicapped in a wide open race. He is expected to appreciate conditions and should figure.

Currently a general 14/1. Some firms are offering to pay quarter odds the first five.

Sandown

2.25 2m6½f bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

All of these have something to prove after being below form of late.

A top form Top Notch would be very difficult to beat.

I price the leading contenders as follows:

Top Notch  13/8

Art Maures 4/1

Double Shuffle 4/1

Alcala  7/1

16/1 bar

The books have Top Notch in at around 5/4 with Double Shuffle second best at 11/4.

 

Top Notch

 

Latest news & Summer campaign

Both our strongest bets so far this week have been successful including our only bet yesterday, a lay of odds-on favourite Samcro. On my ratings I could not have Samcro at odds-on. He has all the makings of a top class performer but the short price on offer was based on potential and maybe too much hype rather than a record of form shown at the very highest level. Thankfully both Samcro and Melon were fine after their falls and so were the riders.

Our five month summer season gets underway next week. During the summer I concentrate on higher quality flat and summer jumps. Last year between May and September we recorded a profit on stakes of over 50% on all bets. For more details and membership options take a visit to my website: www.slh.co.uk

Currently you can get a significant discount against standard terms. Put your betting on truly professional level.

As I reported last week, this blog will now be taking a break. My thanks for your visits over the past months.

 

Patience rewarded

It has made a refreshing change this week to see better ground conditions than those we have endured over the past months.

Good ground for Scottish Grand National Day at Ayr and we are going to look at the opening race of their well supported eight race card.

1.45 2m½f  Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

A number of these are returning from breaks after being out of form and are potentially well handicapped. This makes for a difficult race to price with total confidence.

Dolos caught the eye on his latest start at Cheltenham, when being tailed off at the top of the hill before staying on well up the home straight.

If Theinval turns out again after yesterday’s run here in which he was badly hampered five out and battled on to finish fourth. His chance is respected, although he is a difficult horse to win with.

Last year’s winner of this race Vaniteux was then trained by Nicky Henderson. He has his second run back after a wind operation and is well in on last year’s form.

Forest Bihan makes most appeal at the current prices. Connections have patiently waited for quicker ground conditions, having bypassed Cheltenham and Aintree. He has a tough task under top weight, but is expected to run a big race.

I price the top of the market on my private tissue as follows:

Forest Bihan      5/1

Theinval             11/2

Vaniteux            7/1

Dolos                 7/1

Duke of Navan  8/1

The early books have Vaniteux as their marginal favourite at around 9/2. With twelve to post at present, each way backers can get  quarter odds.

  

Forest Bihan

Summer campaign

Just the one bet yesterday as 2/1 winner Azzuri led all the way for dominant 15 length victory.

You can join now for the summer season and get the rest of this month included free plus a good discount from the standard terms. Last summer saw a profit on stakes on all bets of over 50% and a 45% strike rate. For more details go to: www.slh.co.uk

Please note that this blog will be taking a break after next Saturday. We are looking at a low cost Saturday only email service with Steve’s bets and extra race analysis for blog regulars. If you wish to receive further details just email steve@slh.co.uk   Mark your email Saturday blog.

National experience

The Aintree going is a big factor again today. The ground on the Mildmay and Hurdle course is Soft whilst it is Heavy on the National course. However, the area has had a dry night and the forecast is for a warm breezy day with temperatures up to 15 Celsius by this afternoon. It is likely to be drying ground which can make the surface unresponsive.

One race to look at this afternoon plus the Grand National.

4.20 3m½f Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 Sam Spinner and Wholestone have little between them on Cheltenham form.

Sam Spinner will be ridden positively and may still progress.

Wholestone looks sure to go well, but doesn’t always find a great deal at the finish.

If L’Ami Serge runs, he has a live chance of following up Thursday’s success.

I have the front of the market as follows:

Sam Spinner  9/4

Wholestone  4/1

L’Ami Serge   4/1

Sam Spinner

Grand National

I will be getting a course report from Aintree at lunchtime before briefing members at 1.00 p.m. By then we should have a better idea how the ground will ride. At present my thoughts on the Grand National are for Gordon Elliott’s Ucello Conti. Has course experience with conditions suitable. Daryl Jacob again takes the ride over the national fences.

 

Ucello Conti

 Summer campaign

We are now in the final weeks of the main seven month 2017/18 jumps campaign which has yielded a rewarding 35% profit on stakes invested.

You can join now for the summer season and get the rest of this month included free plus a good discount from the standard terms. For more details go to: www.slh.co.uk

We’re on a highway to Kelso

The ITV cameras head to a picturesque Kelso for four races this afternoon. We are looking at the first of their live races. The going is heavy and some light rain is expected during the later races. Temperatures are a mild 11 to 12 degrees Celsius.

Kelso

 

Next week sees the start of the Aintree Festival meeting. More news after we look at the 1.50.

 

1.50 2m7½f Sue And Harvey Smith Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)

 A very tight four runner handicap in which the morning layers marginally make Teddy Tee the favourite.

ACDC has Liam Quinlan, the amateur jockey on board who rode him to victory three starts ago at this course. Fairly handicapped with suitable conditions, although the 8 y.o. has never been a straightforward ride.

Teddy Tee continues to run well, but is vulnerable at the finish.

Hills Of Dubai and Just Georgie tie in closely, but Hills Of Dubai isn’t proven at this trip.

I have Just Georgie as my marginal favourite in a race sponsored by his trainer.

Just Georgie  5/2

Teddy Tee      3/1

Hills Of Dubai  3/1

ACDC             7/2

 

ACDC

 

Aintree Special

Last weekend we had two bets only, both winners.

Our biggest bet of the week was on Saturday. Our bet soundly beat the odds-on favourite.
On Sunday we again defied popular opinion with a 9/4 winner who drew well clear of the 2/5 favourite.
This rounded off a profitable week and another profitable month.

The bad weather has meant there has been just the one meeting so far this week. Yesterday at Fontwell we had one bet which provided us with a very rewarding 13/2 winner. Plus I analysed three other races for members own betting purposes, this supplied three further winners.

Our Aintree special membership starts today. You get all my bets and analysis from just £20 for membership through to Sunday 15th April.

For more details and other membership options go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-special/

 

Aintree special

We go to Carlisle today for a competitive novices’ chase. The going at the Cumbria track is Good to Soft. The forecast is for rain all morning and then a dry afternoon.

After looking at the 2.15 there is also news on a special membership centred around the Aintree Grand National meeting.

2.15 2m4f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Novices’ Chase (Class 3) (5yo+)

Secrete Stream and Ballycrystal set the standard, although both have something to prove.

Secrete Stream was very disappointing on latest start and is fitted with first time blinkers.

The better ground conditions will suit.

Ballycrystal returned from a break to run in a jumpers bumper at Newcastle four weeks ago. That run would have would teed him up for today.

Elusive Theatre ran well on her latest start and should figure. However she would need to improve to beat the above pair if either give there running.

I price the race as follows:

Ballycrystal         5/2

Secrete Stream  11/4

Elusive Theatre  4/1

Alzamaar            8/1

Bollin Ace           9/1

33/1 bar

Ballycrystal

 

The Grand National is now just two weeks away and we have a special membership covering the entire Aintree week. Membership runs from next Saturday through to Sunday 15th and is just £20. For more details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/aintree-special/

Focus on value

Bangor, Newbury and the first flat card of the season from Doncaster for us today.

We are concentrating on one race at Newbury this afternoon. The going remains soft after racing there yesterday.

2.40 2m3f Be Wiser Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)

Morning favourite Oistrakh Le Noir won with plenty in hand at Market Rasen and is progressive. A big run is expected, but he hasn’t been missed in the market and 5/4 is short in a race with other potential improvers.

Mister Chow was impressive two outings ago at Warwick, but has subsequently been tailed off at Haydock.

Nigh Or Never and Falcon Sun are both lightly raced runners from respected stables.

Ulysses is a difficult horse to quantify. After being beaten in a seller he changed stables before finishing a decent third behind Apple’s Shakira at Cheltenham.

He didn’t appear to be flattered by that performance, which makes him look fairly handicapped here. Presently a general 10/1.

I provisionally price the race as follows:

Oistrakh  Le Noir 15/8

Mister Chow   6/1

Nigh or Never 7/1

Falcon Sun       7/1

Ulysses             7/1

14/1 bar

Newbury

 

Race pricing and value

As a professional I price up every race of interest based on my form analysis, personal ratings and information from various well-placed sources. It is the viable way of judging true betting value. If you don’t have value on your side in the long term you will not make a profit. This is applicable in all forms of business transactions.

A good example of value came last Saturday from the one race analysed on this blog.

My prices were:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

The favourite, Copain De Classe was vulnerable. On the early prices he was a general 5/4 and went off at an S.P. of 11/10. A long way from the 5/2 I had him in at on my prices. We had two lays last Saturday, both successful. One was Copain De Classe, who I recommended to be laid up to a maximum of 2.4. There is always a maximum, otherwise you are laying blind and that is a very dangerous practice.

Copain De Classe finished last having struggled for most of the race.

The eventual winner was Vocaliser. My price 3/1 – the S.P. 7/1.

For more details about my work and your membership options, please go to: www.slh.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

Back to earth

After the highs of a fabulous four days at Cheltenham it’s back to earth today with three jumps cards from Kempton, Fontwell and Uttoxeter.

One race from Kempton for us this morning.

 2m Matchbook VIP Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)

A case can be made for all five runners.

Free Stone Hill has dropped to handicap mark that he has the ability to win off. However he finds little in a finish and isn’t to be trusted.

Deauville Dancer returns from a winter break and may benefit from this race.

Copain De Classe was left with a solo after his only rival fell at only the second fence on his latest start. He has potential, but is at short odds on form achieved.  Currently on offer at 5/4.

Both Kayf Blanco and Vocaliser are running well.

My private tissue:

Copain De Classe 5/2

Kayf Blanco  3/1

Vocaliser       3/1

Deauville      6/1

Free Stone Hill   12/1

  

Copain De Classe

 

2018 Cheltenham Festival

My thanks to everyone who donated and to the preview contributors: Donn McClean, Richard Hoiles, John Hunt and Paul O’Hara.

The two commentators both enjoyed success from their selective advices. Richard with 13/2 winner Mr Whitaker and John emphatically stated that the ‘best bet of the entire meeting has to be Presenting Percy.’  Another great ride from Davy Russell providing a 5/2 winner.

Plus there was plenty for readers from the other contributors.

Lots of great performances with many thrilling finishes and the dominant displays from the likes of Samcro, Altior and Laurina. For me the highlight of the week was the Gold Cup and the relentless jumping performance of Native River. However I have doubts whether the Gold Cup is recently of the same standard of past era’s.

All donations go to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust who build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping keep vital staff in racing.

Support the stable staff

Concentrating on the big race of the day at Sandown; the Imperial Cup. A race with a long history dating back to 1907. Until the launch of the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival it was regarded as the most important hurdle of the jumps season.

Our special Cheltenham membership is available from today. It includes a comprehensive Festival preview which will also be sent today. More details about both below.

2.25 2m Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Whatswrongwithyou impressed when winning at Newbury and falls into the category of “could be anything”. It was the manner of that victory rather than the substance of the form.

However he hasn’t been missed in the market. The general 7/2 on offer in a seventeen runner highly competitive handicap makes little appeal.

Whatswrongwithyou

Master Of Irony was noted on his latest start, being never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race at Newbury.

He handles today’s conditions and with Richard Johnson back in the saddle (he rode him when winning at Wetherby) and a big run is expected. Presently quoted around the 10/1 mark.

 

  

2018 Cheltenham Festival

The Festival starts this Tuesday and I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson avoids the obvious with a one at a backable price.

– Full access to my bets and analysis from today to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

Dee target

Three jump meetings on what will be a particularly cold Saturday afternoon. We are going to briefly look at three races from Kempton. They report their going as Good to Soft, but the covers set down on Thursday are still to come off. I will be getting a more accurate going report direct from one of my senior contacts later this morning. Whilst Kempton is a free draining track  the covers can deaden the ground and that will be an important point when I get my own report.

Today’s Kempton card is one of the last meetings with trials for the Cheltenham Festival  now just over a fortnight away.

 1.50 2m4½f Betdaq Now 2% Commission Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Cyrname deserves to be at short odds. I have him in at 4/7 on my private tissue.

Excellent jumper and expected to be a player at the Spring festivals.

Cyrname

2.25 2m (Winter) Betdaq #ChangingForTheBettor Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo)

Redicean is at short odds after impressing in his two successes.

However his jumping needs to improve, the bare form of his wins isn’t solid.

I would want odds against before contemplating involvement. Currently around 4/5 in the early markets.

Redicean

3.35 3m Betdaq Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Wide open affair in which Master Dee is expected to go well.

This has been the target and conditions will suit.

Presently on offer at 7/1 with some 15/2 in places.

  

 

Master Dee

 2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.

My thanks to everyone who has already taken advantage of the advance booking offer, your donations are greatly appreciated.

Eyes right

As seems to be the case for quite a while, the weather forecast has to be studied almost as carefully as the form. Today the block capitals HEAVY loom large in the going reports for all three jump meetings. We are set for a dry day with temperatures nudging towards double figures in the south. Therefore we are likely to see the ground drying as the afternoon progresses. It will be a factor.

We are concentrating on the Ascot card today starting with a stamina test.

2.25 3m Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Early morning favourite Gold Present is now a non-runner leaving six to post.

Holly Bush Henry and Another Venture are the two that come into this race in form.

From a handicapping perspective a case can be made for the other three.

The horse in that list of most interest is last year’s winner of this race Tenor Nivernais.

He has been well beaten on all three starts since that impressive performance. However all three of those starts were on left handed tracks and he needs to go right handed.

On the same handicap mark as last year, a big run is expected.

My tissue:

Holly Bush  Henry   10/3

Another Venture    10/3

Tenor Nivernais       9/2

7/1 Bar

Tenor Nivernais

 

3.00 2m3½f Ascot Spring Garden Show Handicap Hurdle (Class

2) (4yo+)

Dieg Man is expected to improve on first start in a handicap.

Kildisart has solid handicap form.

Both the Henderson runners, Fixe Le Cap and Stowaway Magic are reverting from chasing. The latter has attracted some market support this morning.

Friday Night Light improved on latest start, when runner up at Taunton earlier this month. Can improve further stepping up in trip. Currently a general 9/1.

My tissue:

Kildisart   4/1

Dieg Man 4/1

Friday Night Light  11/2

7/1 bar

 

Friday Night Light

 

2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.